R2 Sales of 70,000 in 2026'? What the Magic Number?

[Mark_AZR1T]

Everything looks strong with the R2 release. Timing, configuration, and pricing all feel right. The real question is what defines success. Is 50 to 60k units sold and delivered a meaningful win, or is the better signal a consistent monthly ramp by Q4 that points to a 100k annualized run rate?

Curious what people see as the real benchmark. Total deliveries or proof that Rivian can scale R2 cleanly and sustainably?

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[DuoRivians]

Rivian said they’re going to implement at most 1 shift for the car in 2026. I’d say no more than 50k sold in 2026.

Going forward, as much as people here might be excited about it, I see a hard time seeing Rivian sell more than 100k per year of R2. There are too many great EVs coming out from competitors. And the lack of a $7500 tax credit will hurt EV sales in this price segment

 

[ndmiller]

I thought R2 success out of Normal was the trigger for the $5B plant in GA. Based on that number, and your 50K R2s would be $2.5B, half the revenue of the GA plant debt and similar to the R1 annual sales units.

Feels like it needs to be bigger, maybe double to 100K annually, a small amount of vehicles, but a large amount of Rivians. 100K R2s in a year is 23 deliveries per SC per week or 3 per day.

I guess in the end I haven't a clue, but $5B additional revenue from R2 seems like a win to me.

 

[BigSkies]

Total number mostly depends on launch date. I'm mostly interested in what rate they're running the factory at by the end of the year. Rivian will be in a good spot if they're at 15k+ units per month across all models by the end of the year.

Maybe 40k-50k R2's for the entire year, depending on launch date and production ramp.

Going forward, as much as people here might be excited about it, I see a hard time seeing Rivian sell more than 100k per year of R2. There are too many great EVs coming out from competitors. And the lack of a $7500 tax credit will hurt EV sales in this price segment

I'm not sure I agree with this. Tesla sold ~350k Model Y's in the US for 2025. While it would take Rivian years to catch up to 350k sales, I could see the R2 winning over 20%-35% of Model Y buyers, while still mostly selling vehicles to EV newcomers. I can see Normal getting up to capacity in the US with sales & service center expansion.

They will need international expansion relatively quickly though. Certainly before GA comes online.

Or maybe Rivian can get a good deal on an abandoned German Tesla factory by then.

 

[VandalSibs]

Or maybe Rivian can get a good deal on an abandoned German Tesla factory by then.

 

[computertom]

I think the present SC setup will fall over fast with 50k deliveries this year of a new vehicle. They really need to nail the quality at a level they never have. Buyers of a $50k “downmarket” EV will not have the patience for Rivian’s low quality “we’ll fix it later / post delivery” shenanigans that many here have had.

 

[DuoRivians]

Total number mostly depends on launch date. I'm mostly interested in what rate they're running the factory at by the end of the year. Rivian will be in a good spot if they're at 15k+ units per month across all models by the end of the year.

Maybe 40k-50k R2's for the entire year, depending on launch date and production ramp.



I'm not sure I agree with this. Tesla sold ~350k Model Y's in the US for 2025. While it would take Rivian years to catch up to 350k sales, I could see the R2 winning over 20%-35% of Model Y buyers, while still mostly selling vehicles to EV newcomers. I can see Normal getting up to capacity in the US with sales & service center expansion.

They will need international expansion relatively quickly though. Certainly before GA comes online.

Or maybe Rivian can get a good deal on an abandoned German Tesla factory by then.

I’m not super optimistic of US based EVs doing well overseas. China is making good inroads with countries like Canada and areas like the EU. Plus, Europe is becoming protectionist of their own brands. We’ll see, but I think the last year really changed the desirability of US products and cars overseas

 

[Just Passing By]

Well according to the CNBC article, posted alongside the video interview with RJ ....
"Needham analyst Chris Pierce said the consensus opinion holds that Rivian will sell about 15,000 units of the R2 in 2026, but he thinks the company can top that. He added that Rivian ranks first in Consumer Reports' owner satisfaction survey."

The Street number seems low to me for a number of reasons.

1. For a "launch in the first half" Rivian should start production in 2Q26 if not earlier, so 3 quarters of production
2. They should greatly exceed the ramp of R1 (see chart below) because R2 is a much simpler vehicle than R1 Gen 1 or even R1 Gen 2, being built on a much more optimized production line, designed to support much higher production volume with more automation.
3. They aren't ramping in the latter stages of the COVID pandemic with all the associated supply chain issues, which were especially bad for the automotive industry

Conversely the 70k number in the thread title is much too high for a single shift production line, given the maximum throughput for all vehicles at Normal is stated to be 215k, presumably based on 3 shifts. It would also be high for R2-only production, even for a full year of production, based on just a single shift, given they will still be building EDV and R1.

A production ramp that looks something like 2Q-3k+, 3Q-7k+, 4Q-15k+ for 25k+ in 2026 should be achievable with a single shift, when compared to what they were able to achieve over 5 quarters with the R1 ramp. If Rivian can start a second shift in 4Q then numbers increase from there.

So for me, a critical benchmark would be how quickly they get to operating a second shift, if they can do that in 2026. If they could exit 2026 at a 30k+ run rate then that would set them up well for growth to max out Normal in 2027.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

RJ/Rivian said Normal has capacity to produce 155k~175k R2 units annually. I take that to mean, in full stride. Not first full year. 50% of that would be far too conservative, I think. 70% is probably more reasonable, which is just over 100k. And they've done more this time to shore up supply chain. Whatever the actual figure ends up, there is probably more demand than what they can deliver. That's if the economy doesn't slide even further, which is a strong possibility. Remember, key govt. reports are months behind because of the shut down.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

15k seems really low.

 

[SANZC02]

Here is my best guess. They have stated an annual build rate of 155k a year in Normal. They have spent a lot of time and effort to ensure that the R2 has been optimized for mass production. Given that focus and the supply chain issues from Covid the numbers they had for the rollout of the R1 should not really compare.

155k a year is about 3k a week. Looks like best case is they may have 2 quarters of production in 2026. If they can average 1k a week in first quarter and 1.5k a week second quarter that could possibly yield a conservative 32,500 for the year.

For me, if they are between 30 and 40k it would be a good start for the line. If the ASP for the initial run is 55k that gets the somewhere in the 1.65-2.2 billion.

 

[soysaucing]

RJ/Rivian said Normal has capacity to produce 155k~175k R2 units annually. I take that to mean, in full stride. Not first full year. 50% of that would be far too conservative, I think. 70% is probably more reasonable, which is just over 100k. And they've done more this time to shore up supply chain. Whatever the actual figure ends up, there is probably more demand than what they can deliver. That's if the economy doesn't slide even further, which is a strong possibility. Remember, key govt. reports are months behind because of the shut down.

Full capacity is three 8 hour shifts. I think they start with 1 shift then ramp up from there. 50-70k is reasonable number to expect.

 

[Just Passing By]

RJ/Rivian said Normal has capacity to produce 155k~175k R2 units annually. I take that to mean, in full stride. Not first full year. 50% of that would be far too conservative, I think. 70% is probably more reasonable, which is just over 100k. And they've done more this time to shore up supply chain. Whatever the actual figure ends up, there is probably more demand than what they can deliver. That's if the economy doesn't slide even further, which is a strong possibility. Remember, key govt. reports are months behind because of the shut down.

That 155k~175k R2 units is presumably based on 3 shifts though? They won't be starting at 3 shifts or even 2 shifts. That's why I ended up with the numbers I did in my post just above yours.

My hope is that they have planned for a more aggressive ramp than what I outlined above, something like 1-2k of saleable production units in 1Q. Note this is production not actual sales which would likely start in 2Q. If that is the plan then the production ramp based on a single shift (i.e. 60k annual run rate at full production using a single shift) might look more like 1Q-1.5k+, 2Q-6k+, 3Q-15k+ and 4Q-15k+ for 37.5k in 2026, with sales numbers catching up with production numbers by the end of the year.

Higher output than that is then a function of how early they ramp a second shift in 2026, if at all. Ramping a third shift in 2026 seems optimistic but I would love to see them do it.

 

[Time2Roll]

70,000 seems high to me. No idea what the ramp rate will be or how many reservations will convert to a purchase.

If there is still a six+ week waiting list at the end of the year with a build rate of 1000+ per week.
That would be my indication of a success initially.

 

[JasonK]

I would be quite surprised if they put out 50K in 2026. It takes time to ramp up production. My best guess is they will produce in the 25K to 35K range. The need to take their time ramping up production to make sure everything is operating correctly. It would suck to have something overlooked and suddenly they have 50K vehicles to fix.

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