Has anyone on this forum received a confirmed delivery date?

[SeaGeo]

Pretty lame since deliveries were supposed to start in September.

Seems like a delivery to me.

Sponsored

 

[Tim-in-CA]

Seems like a delivery to me.

Cheers to the head Cheerleading Coach @ Illinois State! ?

 

[Kmann1994]

Seems like a delivery to me.

Clearly paid actors, doesn’t count ?
/s

 

[SeaGeo]

Clearly paid actors, doesn’t count ?
/s

Her kids are cute enough you gotta wonder!

 

[GaryL]

Illinois State is in Bloomington-Normal.

 

[Gator42]

Seems like a delivery to me.

I see kids in a truck but I’m not on Insta. Details?

Seems like a delivery to me.

Sorry I'm not on Insty either- I can see her pics but no other details. For those of us who will continue to draw a distinction between a paid for but paid employee customer delivery and a paid for and unpaid reservation holder delivery ...do we have information that these people are the first kind or second?

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Seems like a delivery to me.

Time for the RivianForum.com forensic analysts to break down everything about her account to determine how many levels of separation she has from Rivian and/or if she is a paid actor.

I swear some of y'all are going to end up unmasking some foreign agent because they are in a picture with a Rivian.

 

[Autolycus]

Time for the RivianForum.com forensic analysts to break down everything about her account to determine how many levels of separation she has from Rivian and/or if she is a paid actor.

I swear some of y'all are going to end up unmasking some foreign agent because they are in a picture with a Rivian.

Let’s just hope the foreign agent isn’t too close to Putin and our online friend doesn’t end up with radiation poisoning.

 

[Gator42]

Time for the RivianForum.com forensic analysts to break down everything about her account to determine how many levels of separation she has from Rivian and/or if she is a paid actor.

I swear some of y'all are going to end up unmasking some foreign agent because they are in a picture with a Rivian.

I would expect nothing less from the crack analysis team on this forum.

…and mock if you must but it will continue to be an important distinction to me and to other reservation holders…and VERY VERY important to Jeff Bezos, VC investors, I banks and the ready to pounce financial news media.

 

[ajdelange]

If this forum have 2500 members and there be 28000 reservations out there each of which turns into a truck then the probability that that truck be assigned to a member is 2500/28000. The probability that it be assigned to a non member would be 1 - 2500/28000 and the probablility that that the first 10 be assigned to a non member is (1 - 2500/28000)^10 and, therefor, the probability that at least one goes to a member is 1 - (1 - 2500/28000)^10 = 60.7%. By the time 50 trucks have been released the probability that at least one goes to one of us is 99%. Conclusion: either they haven't released many trucks or they are selectively releasing them to employees, investors,... This latter is just common sense, of course.

 

[Autolycus]

If this forum have 2500 members and there be 28000 reservations out there each of which turns into a truck then the probability that that truck be assigned to a member is 2500/28000. The probability that it be assigned to a non member would be 1 - 2500/28000 and the probablility that that the first 10 be assigned to a non member is (1 - 2500/28000)^10 and, therefor, the probability that at least one goes to a member is 1 - (1 - 2500/28000)^10 = 60.7%. By the time 50 trucks have been released the probability that at least one goes to one of us is 99%. Conclusion: either they haven't released many trucks or they are selectively releasing them to employees, investors,... This latter is just common sense, of course.

That assumes randomness though, which isn’t a reasonable assumption at all.

 

[IHScout]

Time for the RivianForum.com forensic analysts to break down everything about her account to determine how many levels of separation she has from Rivian and/or if she is a paid actor.

I swear some of y'all are going to end up unmasking some foreign agent because they are in a picture with a Rivian.

I don't want to put them on blast with their kids photos here, but her husband works for Rivian.

 

[ajdelange]

That assumes randomness though, which isn’t a reasonable assumption at all.

Well I hadn't actually thought of this in terms of a formal statistical test but indeed it could be looked at in that way. The null hypothesis could be stated as H0: "Rivian releases its trucks randomly to reservation holders and has released 50 of them." The alternative hypothesis H1:"Rivian has released fewer than 50 trucks or is not releasing them randomly to reservation holders". The observation is that not a single truck has gone to someone here. The probability of that happening under the null hypothesis is (1 - 2500/28000)^50 = 0.00931338. We therefore reject the null hypothesis with 99% confidence. Rivian is evidently not releasing cars to the reservation holders (or has released fewer; for 10 trucks released we can only reject the null hypothesis at the 61% confidence level which is shy of the usual 95%).

I don't want to put them on blast with their kids photos here, but her husband works for Rivian.

QED

But to the point no, the assumption that they would release them to the general public without having a more tightly controlled group have the opportunity to discover the big problems first is not a reasonable assumption.

Another possibility is that they have contacted some select people on this list and said that they will be among the first to get their trucks on the proviso that they remain silent about this for a period of time. Those folks, if indeed there are any, are outside the pool described by H0.

 

[Ladiver]

I am a skeptic, but will definitely call this a delivery (unless her husband works for Rivian, as mentioned). Starting to see paper plates on trucks is a good thing. Rivian did say location is a key factor so someone in BloNo getting their truck makes perfect sense.

I’m real curious how many trucks per day are rolling off the line? I bet single digits.

 

[GaryL]

The good news is that Rivian has figured out a way around Illinois direct sales restrictions

Sponsored