Newest language on the EV incentive

[DucRider]

Everyone's going to have different parts of environmental impact that they think should be considered important.

Here's some handwaving math on the Rivians and CO2:

Thanks for posting that breakdown. Worth noting that those numbers assume that the grid will stop getting cleaner (very unlikely), so the breakeven will likely be lower in every case.

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[R_1_T]

Do I want lithium mining in my back yard? Yes, but it depends on how it is done.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/green...ithium-from-the-salton-sea-to-make-batteries/

I've read the article and see a lot of mights and mays. This is all theoretical at this point, and meaningless until they can extract at scale. In addition, I think it's foolish to believe there won't be any local environmental impacts.

 

[R_1_T]

Everyone's going to have different parts of environmental impact that they think should be considered important.

Here's some handwaving math on the Rivians and CO2:

The incessant focus on CO2 is annoying. Volcanos spew tons upon tons of it, we exhale it, and plants consume it. The world has greater problems.

 

[SeaGeo]

The incessant focus on CO2 is annoying. Volcanos spew tons upon tons of it, we exhale it, and plants consume it. The world has greater problems.

Volcanic emissions aren't even of the same order of magnitude as human based emissions.

 

[Ventura]

Volcanic emissions aren't even of the same order of magnitude as human based emissions.

Yep.
https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...-carbon-dioxide-volcanoes-or-human-activities

 

[Ventura]

I've read the article and see a lot of mights and mays. This is all theoretical at this point, and meaningless until they can extract at scale. In addition, I think it's foolish to believe there won't be any local environmental impacts.

I understand your hesitancy, however this is a promising venture. While there will be environmental impacts for nearly anything, we have to consider the state of the ecosystem. It's a mess. The Salton Sea never should have been and is guaranteed a painful death under the effects of climate change. Having done ecological research in this area, I'd suggest it is a great target for such a venture and will likely have far less environmental impact relative to yield than other lithium extraction efforts. Furthermore, the revenue generated might be put to use to protect the local communities from the effects of the drying sea, as that will be a massive and expensive mitigation effort.

 

[emoore]

Volcanic emissions aren't even of the same order of magnitude as human based emissions.

No kidding. That’s a pretty ignorant statement by R-1-T. I do agree with R-1-T that government subsidies should be limited and it should start with ending all fossil fuel subsidies.

 

[Blur1t]

Everyone's going to have different parts of environmental impact that they think should be considered important.

Here's some handwaving math on the Rivians and CO2:

I’m an EA and damn that’s a lot of formulas. I think most EV owners keep their vehicles longer than typical ICE owners anyway, so I speak for myself when I say I will not get permission to make this kind of vehicle purchase again in my lifetime so with or without the tax incentives and CO2 emissions Im all in and looking forward to doing my part to cut help keep ?? beautiful! At least better than the TRX or Raptor I was going to buy…

 

[Blur1t]

No kidding. That’s a pretty ignorant statement by R-1-T. I do agree with R-1-T that government subsidies should be limited and it should start with ending all fossil fuel subsidies.
[/QUOTE
I was taken back by how much was produced by livestock too.

 

[mkennedy1996]

Tesla situation is not tied to incentives. The problem with your suggestion here is either customer have to agree in advance that they will buy the upgrade which turns the whole thing into a fraud case. Or Rivian take a chance in which case they will be losing money on every car whose owner decide not to upgrade. That could be all cars sold if a Russian hacker comes up with a pack liberty solution.

Tesla did offer a 94 mile range Model 3 in Canada to qualify for incentives. This was a slightly different case where the lowest price vehicle qualified other more expensive variants of the Model 3.

There does not need to be a prior agreement with the customer to unlock the battery after purchase. I question your assumption that they would lose money on every "locked" battery vehicle sale. We don't yet know their margins, but Tesla is making over 26% gross margin across their fleet. A price reduction of $8,000 for a locked battery to qualify for the tax credit would eat into a gross margin of $20,000 (26% of $77,000), but would still leave a gross profit for Rivian.

The accountants and marketing gurus at Rivian could run the numbers on Two Scenarios:
1. Projected sales with no tax credit available with resulting total gross margin
2. Projected sales with a tax credit being available along with the projected take up rate on the post sale unlock. From that, they would also come to a total gross margin.

Scenario Two would need to be project a clear advantage to Rivian to offer the locked battery option, but they would be negligent in their "soon to be" fiduciary responsibility to shareholders if they didn't carefully evaluate their options.

 

[Babbuino]

“Rivian supports a straightforward expansion without artificial limits to encourage EV adoption to as many households as possible,”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...w-organic&cmpid==socialflow-twitter-australia

 

[SeaGeo]

As a Washington State resident who has had to navigate the arbitrary $45,000 limit on a sales tax exemption I really hope the limits don't stay around. It's incredibly frustrating when you can get the base vehicle and save a couple of thousand dollars in taxes, or sneeze on the wrong option or paint and suddenly a $500 option ends up costing $500+the entire tax value.

 

[Mjhirsch78]

As a Washington State resident who has had to navigate the arbitrary $45,000 limit on a sales tax exemption I really hope the limits don't stay around. It's incredibly frustrating when you can get the base vehicle and save a couple of thousand dollars in taxes, or sneeze on the wrong option or paint and suddenly a $500 option ends up costing $500+the entire tax value.

Yup. No incentive on our first EV in Washington or federally. Current wording/structure would mean no incentive on the second EV (Rivian). We won’t benefit again because we intend to drive these two vehicles 15-20 years. Arbitrary price caps don’t help customers. *sigh*

 

[Zoidz]

I guess that I question how environmentally friendly EVs actually are. This question goes well beyond the zero tailpipe emission factor, and really needs to consider the entire supply chain.

In the event lithium was widely available within the US/Canada, would any of us want the mine in our "backyard"? My guess is about as much as an oil refinery or semiconductor fab.

Agreed that EVs present some environmental challeges of their own, but I see it as an evolutionary process. Assuming that the consensus is that we need to eliminate use of fossil fuels and EV is the answer, there has to be a transition phase. New technologies (EV, batteries, etc.) won't completely meet each and every goal initially, but we believe that we can refine the technologies to meet and surpass the goals. As the Chinese proverb says, A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. We're maybe 100 miles into that EV journey.

Regarding "Not In My BackYard" maybe I'm an anomaly, but I wouldn't have a problem with it if regulations were in place and followed. Earliy in my engineering career, I worked at a nuclear power plant which is about 15 miles from my house. I left that job to work for Lucent Technologies at a analog semiconductor fab plant which was about 5 miles from my house. Today I live in between two quarry mines, each less than 5 miles away. Not a big deal to me.

 

[flabyboy]

I get ya, and in general I agree. I make an exception if there's an urgent, fundamental, and strategic reason to force a major shift in production and consumption habits - such as environmental concerns. That's why I mentioned that the US needs a national energy policy - if the US is serious qbout addressing climate change and EVs are part of that strategy, I believe that rebates/credits make sense to accelerate the effort.

Germany has chosen to go this route:
"The ecological rebate aims to promote the replacement of the country’s motor vehicles with climate- and environmentally-friendly electric vehicles, according to the published 15-page paper."

https://www.electrive.com/2020/06/04/germany-doubles-ev-subsidies-no-more-diesel-support/

This is the problem. The US is not serious about it. The decision makers don't make choices based on whats right or wrong. Its all about the $$$$

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