Ford "PRICE WAR" drives RIVN under $10

[Tahoe Man]

I didn't buy at IPO because the valuation at the time was crazy in my view. I have been buying on the way down from $20; avg around $13. I may have blinders on I guess, but I feel that without all the baggage of legacy automakers like Ford/GM etc, they could get to market cap in the $50B range.

But Ford and GM make handsome profits on their big pickups.

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[White Shadow]

This (current) $9.56 hurts. But I can't sell because my luck it will reach $200 next year and split.

I don't think we'll have to worry very much about that happening. If Rivian recovers, it's not going to be anything significant until the R2 starts shipping.

 

[evguy]

The stock price continues to be driven by short term sentiment. As we've seen over the past year, that sentiment can change very quickly (for better or worse). If you can take some risk, best to buy now when sentiment is very bad. (At least that's what I keep telling myself!!)

 

[Tahoe Man]

But, the reality is the legacy automakers are here to stay.

With the cheapest Lightning being $20K cheaper than the cheapest R1T, and the cheapest Tesla CT next year (according to plan) supposed to be $10K cheaper than the cheapest R1T, Rivian can't compete in this market. They had demand when R1T was the only EV truck in town and every early adopter willing to pay a higher price wanted one, but that is not the case anymore.

Rivian should have never gotten into the pickup space. I wish they just initiated with the SUV and kept it at that.

 

[White Shadow]

There has never been so much writing on the wall. I have no idea what RIVN is doing, delaying the next capital raise. Things are not going to get better. It needs to raise capital now - that is, unless RIVN is already in takeover talks to be acquired by another automaker (this is the only reasonable explanation as to why capital has not been raised yet). A capital raise now probably knocks the stock down to $4 per share. Maybe an acquisition could get done at $5 per share.

I too was thinking it's more and more likely for an acquisition as the share value tanks lower and lower. I would not be surprised to see that happen at all.

 

[evguy]

I hope you are right, but I am skeptical that gross profit is achievable with the R1S or R1T. Even if they manage to bring the COGS down, I don't think the market is there at scale for $90k+ electric SUVs.

Shareholders should be happy that RJ only owns 1.4% of the equity. I think it hurts less to go from 1.4% to 0.7% post-dilution, than from something like 30% to 15% (or whatever). At this point he is probably motivated to preserve what he has left.

Gross profit is measured across all units sold, including RCV, R1S and R1T. And the average selling price of R1 is significantly lower than $90k+. I have a strong suspicion that the post-shutdown R1 line will include a cheaper base trim as well as a new premium trim, with the goal of sustaining/increasing sales volume without diminishing average selling price.

 

[DuoRivians]

Short interest at 20%. It’s been around 11% in Q4 2023. So, definitely shorts have piled in.

 

[R1TS]

Rivian should have never gotten into the pickup space. I wish they just initiated with the SUV and kept it at that.

This I can wholeheartedly agree with you.

My wish is that they can swallow their ego and completely drop the R1T now before much later.

 

[KootenayEV]

Rivian should have never gotten into the pickup space. I wish they just initiated with the SUV and kept it at that.

That would have made me sad.

 

[KootenayEV]

This I can wholeheartedly agree with you.

My wish is that they can swallow their ego and completely drop the R1T now before much later.

I still don't understand why you are saying this. Is your theory that the R1T loses more money than the R1S for each incremental unit produced?

 

[R1TS]

Is your theory that the R1T loses more money than the R1S for each incremental unit produced?

No. Why make a product that barely sells compared to your other products? Their sales are so R1S biased and will be even less of R1T when the R2 comes out. The lead time for a custom config order of R1S is nearly twice as long as for a custom R1T. That should not be the case. Just stop making the R1T and make the R1S quicker.

Also, look at the R1 shop right now? In my zip code, you still have a lot of choices for R1T that comes with free full PPF. But, over on the R1S side, not a single one left with free full PPF out of over 300 available. Not even a free full PPF option can sell the R1T.

Why do you think they should keep making the R1T? For nostalgia reasons? I don't get why you keep saying they shouldn't get rid of the R1T when it's such a low volume seller.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Rivian should have never gotten into the pickup space. I wish they just initiated with the SUV and kept it at that.

I would not be a Rivian owner today if they didn't make the R1T. I don't have a need for a large 3 row SUV but it seemed natural to buy another vehicle from them after getting my truck. I'm sure I'm not alone here.

I also plan on replacing my R1T with the upcoming higher end trim R1T that has yet to be officially announced.

 

[Honey]

Short interest at 20%. It’s been around 11% in Q4 2023. So, definitely shorts have piled in.

Buy and hodl.

I buy when people are fearful. It never hurt me yet, besides my crypto is up 76% this year I can afford to keep buying $rivn

 

[ohseedee]

If the R1T was under $80k with 20 inch rims, I, and many other prospective buyers, would have purchased a R1 long ago.

You can already get an R1T with 20" wheels for under 80k. Lots of them in the shop. With a standard+ battery a dual-motor R1T with off-road package/20" wheels goes for $76,850. The 280 miles range of the standard+ is pretty much the same as the quad/large-pack with 20" wheels.

 

[Rivian Head]

I too was thinking it's more and more likely for an acquisition as the share value tanks lower and lower. I would not be surprised to see that happen at all.

That is insane, why would anyone want to take over a company hemorrhaging money in a sector with looming price war, and has no clear plan to scale up volume. OEMs are moving toward hybrids, and Tesla has their hands full, and pivoting to softwares and Robotaxi. I just don’t see it.

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