Ford "PRICE WAR" drives RIVN under $10

[TexasBob]

I agree.

But.... Ford Lightning XLT 320 mile range with road tires is currently $67k minus $7,500 Ford discount. As a long-time Rivian lookie-lou (I missed the pre-price hike reservation by 10 days) the $59,500 price of the Ford versus $80k for similar R1T is going to hurt Rivian sales. The $20k price difference will unfortunately sway some buyers from Rivian to Ford.

Agree that there will be some cross shopping but not much. First, 70% of R1 Sales are R1S not T. So for the majority of sales, the F150 is not even relevant (Kia maybe, sorta). On the pickup side, I think a lot of current R1T buyers have the smaller size as a key criteria (I know back in the day when it was only electric game in town that was different).

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[Tahoe Man]

Love the car. Hate the business model. Still trying to catch that falling sword. Keep getting blood on my hands. Lest we not forget the stock is down over 94 percent from peak. Why do some try to ignore the facts. Ask me how my Fisker investment turned out.

Same here, but hopefully with you as it is with me it's a very small percentage of my overall investment worth. My investment in RIVN when I made it was about 0.3%. Thankfully I didn't invest more than that, but that wasn't my intentions anyways. It still sucks even buying it at $19 it has been one of the worst investments I've made in 20 years.

 

[evguy]

I'm still holding RIVN with avg cost around 15

Rivian needs to promote those reengineered R1s as soon as they can. Maybe even take pre-orders. The whole EV sector is taking a beating.

I'm sure they're comping at the bit to do this, but they need to finish selling the existing inventory first. Hopefully they'll introduce the "revamped" R1 line before the earnings call on May 7.

 

[evguy]

There has never been so much writing on the wall. I have no idea what RIVN is doing, delaying the next capital raise. Things are not going to get better. It needs to raise capital now - that is, unless RIVN is already in takeover talks to be acquired by another automaker (this is the only reasonable explanation as to why capital has not been raised yet). A capital raise now probably knocks the stock down to $4 per share. Maybe an acquisition could get done at $5 per share.

They'll be in a much better position to raise capital after they achieve gross profit, which may happen as soon as Q4, and they have plenty of cash on hand to get to that point. After gross profit, increased Amazon deliveries, and more fleet customers buying in volume next year, institutions will line up to help finance completion of the GA plant. Any acquirer would pay a hefty premium over the market price, in part because of the significant brand value Rivian has built. Things are dicey now, but the path is there. They need to keep executing.

 

[sphereobject]

They'll be in a much better position to raise capital after they achieve gross profit, which may happen as soon as Q4, and they have plenty of cash on hand to get to that point. After gross profit, increased Amazon deliveries, and more fleet customers buying in volume next year, institutions will line up to help finance completion of the GA plant. Any acquirer would pay a hefty premium over the market price, in part because of the significant brand value Rivian has built. Things are dicey now, but the path is there. They need to keep executing.

I hope you are right, but I am skeptical that gross profit is achievable with the R1S or R1T. Even if they manage to bring the COGS down, I don't think the market is there at scale for $90k+ electric SUVs.

Shareholders should be happy that RJ only owns 1.4% of the equity. I think it hurts less to go from 1.4% to 0.7% post-dilution, than from something like 30% to 15% (or whatever). At this point he is probably motivated to preserve what he has left.

 

[R1TS]

Same here, but hopefully with you as it is with me it's a very small percentage of my overall investment worth. My investment in RIVN when I made it was about 0.3%. Thankfully I didn't invest more than that, but that wasn't my intentions anyways. It still sucks even buying it at $19 it has been one of the worst investments I've made in 20 years.

0.3%????

What?! Lol.

Why even bother? Assuming your total investments is a cool $1M, your net investment in RIVN is only $3,000 or just 157 shares.

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

Agree. I'm thinking there is backroom non public chatter of an acquisition thus the move lower on the equity side.

Who buys them? Amazon probably makes the most sense. Apple owning the factory and burden seems unlikely but it could dovetail with their announcement of not pursing their own from-scratch vehicle. Who else?

 

[sphereobject]

0.3%????

What?! Lol.

Why even bother? Assuming your total investments is a cool $1M, your net investment in RIVN is only $3,000 or just 157 shares.

LOL this guy is like me. I get all excited about $15% moves on $2,500 non-material crazy investment ideas.

 

[KootenayEV]

Love the car. Hate the business model. Still trying to catch that falling sword. Keep getting blood on my hands. Lest we not forget the stock is down over 94 percent from peak. Why do some try to ignore the facts. Ask me how my Fisker investment turned out.

I didn't buy at IPO because the valuation at the time was crazy in my view. I have been buying on the way down from $20; avg around $13. I may have blinders on I guess, but I feel that without all the baggage of legacy automakers like Ford/GM etc, they could get to market cap in the $50B range.

 

[wOOf wOOf]

Talk about Rivian's Stock, Look where Ford is today.

 

[Tahoe Man]

0.3%????

What?! Lol.

Why even bother? Assuming your total investments is a cool $1M, your net investment in RIVN is only $3,000 or just 157 shares.

It's still a loss and I hate a loss. It's over 157 shares but etiquette is not to discuss investment worth, so I just mention percentage.

 

[White Shadow]

Rivian seems to be following Lucid's lead here. Stock is almost in the $8 range at the moment, so hopefully we don't see it go as low as Lucid ended up a while back. The road to recovery is going to be a long one, if at all.

 

[Tahoe Man]

Maybe RIVN blows through $9 today.

 

[Tahoe Man]

Talk about Rivian's Stock, Look where Ford is today.

Wow! I remember when F was near $25 due to their grand EV plans. How things have changed!

 

[R1TS]

I didn't buy at IPO because the valuation at the time was crazy in my view. I have been buying on the way down from $20; avg around $13. I may have blinders on I guess, but I feel that without all the baggage of legacy automakers like Ford/GM etc, they could get to market cap in the $50B range.

But, the reality is the legacy automakers are here to stay.

With the cheapest Lightning being $20K cheaper than the cheapest R1T, and the cheapest Tesla CT next year (according to plan) supposed to be $10K cheaper than the cheapest R1T, Rivian can't compete in this market. They had demand when R1T was the only EV truck in town and every early adopter willing to pay a higher price wanted one, but that is not the case anymore.

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