Rivian 10 year Depreciation Schedule and Cross Shopping with R2 in 2026

[MidnightRivian]

I wanted to put some potential numbers down to guesstimate what depreciation would be like on a Rivian R1S / R1T Quad Motor over the next 10 years.

I would say the current price is $87,000 for R1T and $92,000 for R1S based on Rivian screenshots below.

The R1S build would come out to $75,500 for pre-price hike customer. Someone can share what the R1T Quad Motor was for pre price hike customers.

You can get a like new less than 300 mile Rivian R1S Quad Motor with Ocean Coast Interior and Red Canyon for $83,995.

If you own a truck reduce the prices by roughly $5,000. The estimated mileage after every year added to the vehicle would be 15,000 miles.

Now the exciting part of this conversation which is cross shopping the R1 with the R2 in 2026. At that point you would be able to get Rivian R1S for $65,000 and possible even under $60,000 if it has higher mileage.

The R2 will be between $40,000 - $60,000 after tax credit. At least lets go with that in my assumptions.

Would you buy a high end fully loaded R2 for $60,000 or get a used R1 with 30,000 miles for similar price?

Also let me know what you think will be the potential depreciation per year for R1T or R1S? Roughly $8,000 - $10,000 / 15,000 miles per year in my opinion.

I'll throw in some renderings of the R2 for attention.

My predictions for R2 pricing / specs in the below link

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/whats-your-r2-predictions.23947/page-3#post-478723

R1S Depreciation Schedule

New: $92,000

Used: $83,995

1 year old: $75,000

2 year old: $65,000

3 year old: $58,000

4 year old: $49,900

5 year old: $40,000

6 year old: $34,000

7 year old: $28,000

8 year old: $24,000

9 year old: $19,000

10 year old: $17,000

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[iansriv]

Nice analysis. Hate to see a $100k car go to $17k in 10 years but I suppose that's going to be reality. I would probably be happy with a very basic new R2 vs a used R1. I don't need half the stuff in my R1S. Cheers.

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

R2 might also be about a smaller and less complex vehicle as well. Not likely to have air suspension or kinetic roll control in that price range.

Also remember at 10 years and 17k your talking about a vehicle that is 10 years old with 150k miles and no warranty.

IMO the most cost efficient way to drive a vehicle is to get one that is 3-5 years old and drive it for 5-7 years or longer. The bulk of the depreciation happens in the first 3-5 years.

 

[Joe Hoffman]

I agree with the 3-5yr old rule. But last year I just couldn't find any Rivians for sale that were 3-5 yrs old.

 

[NY_Rob]

IMO the most cost efficient way to drive a vehicle is to get one that is 3-5 years old and drive it for 5-7 years or longer. The bulk of the depreciation happens in the first 3-5 years.

I purchased our 2017 i3 in 2021 when it was 4yrs old.

I found the original Monroney sticker in the car.. it went for $52K in 2017, I paid $22K for it in 2021

 

[White Shadow]

One thing that has so far kept me from buying an EV is because I believe the depreciation curve is likely to be much, much worse than ICE vehicles. I mean, pretty much all new vehicles depreciate a lot, but in my mind the depreciation curve is likely to be huge with EVs considering the expectation that they will greatly improve over time. Battery technology alone should bring longer ranges and faster charging times. For that reason, I'm much more inclined to lease an EV than to buy one. And that's a weird thing for me because I've never leased a car in my entire life. I've purchased every one of my cars. And in the last 15 years, I've even paid cash for them.

Now that Rivian is going NACS, I wonder what will happen with resale values on today's Rivian vehicles. Yeah, I know you can use an adapter, but having a CCS port is quickly going to be yesterday's technology. If I were in the market for a Rivian today (or any of the other manufacture cars switching to NACS), I'd just wait a year or so.

 

[lefkonj]

Since we know nothing about the R2 except it will have 4 wheels, doors and glass, I can't answer your question at all.

As usual this depends on your uses. If you need to haul things (people, dogs, supplies) the R1 is a decently sized vehicle. If you are just using it to take 1 or 2 other people around the R2 might be a good choice, but if we all calm down and wait until the 7th then we will have a better idea of reality.

I would also add that depreciation of a vehicle like this is normal. A BMW X5 from 2014 goes for about 17k today. Cars never go up in value, just the nature of the beast

 

[mkg3]

I wanted to put some potential numbers down to guesstimate what depreciation would be like on a Rivian R1S / R1T Quad Motor over the next 10 years.

I would say the current price is $87,000 for R1T and $92,000 for R1S based on Rivian screenshots below.

The R1S build would come out to $75,500 for pre-price hike customer. Someone can share what the R1T Quad Motor was for pre price hike customers.

You can get a like new less than 300 mile Rivian R1S Quad Motor with Ocean Coast Interior and Red Canyon for $83,995.

If you own a truck reduce the prices by roughly $5,000. The estimated mileage after every year added to the vehicle would be 15,000 miles.

Now the exciting part of this conversation which is cross shopping the R1 with the R2 in 2026. At that point you would be able to get Rivian R1S for $65,000 and possible even under $60,000 if it has higher mileage.

The R2 will be between $40,000 - $60,000 after tax credit. At least lets go with that in my assumptions.

Would you buy a high end fully loaded R2 for $60,000 or get a used R1 with 30,000 miles for similar price?

Also let me know what you think will be the potential depreciation per year for R1T or R1S? Roughly $8,000 - $10,000 / 15,000 miles per year in my opinion.

I'll throw in some renderings of the R2 for attention.

My predictions for R2 pricing / specs in the below link

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/whats-your-r2-predictions.23947/page-3#post-478723

R1S Depreciation Schedule

New: $92,000

Used: $83,995

1 year old: $75,000

2 year old: $65,000

3 year old: $58,000

4 year old: $49,900

5 year old: $40,000

6 year old: $34,000

7 year old: $28,000

8 year old: $24,000

9 year old: $19,000

10 year old: $17,000

Questions:
1) is this 2024 $ carried out to 2034, or did you inflate it using 2%/yr CGAR for inflation?

2) Did you assume that there is no major update to R1 line design and features?

3) Have you considered major step change in technology (e.g., solid state battery (SSB), on-board AI based drive+)

My guess is that the value of R1 is going to take a major hit in value when the battery/motor warrantee expires, SSB is introduced with significantly faster charging and range improvement and much lighter weight.

So in 10 yrs, $17K in 2034 dollars is probably good for very clean vehicle with low milage. Worse for high milage and with some blemishes.

 

[vandy1981]

I guess you could extrapolate from a 2013 Model S performance which sold for $125K (inflation adjusted) and tops out at $25-30K in today's dollars.

Beyond that, it's futile to speculate on the 10-year depreciation curve of any electric vehicle much less a first-gen product from a startup company. There is too much uncertainty about technological advances, government policy, cost of commodities like oil and battery minerals, and countless other factors like the potential discovery of a goldilocks asteroid enriched in iridium.

 

[theyoungone]

For me personally my decision to buy an R1S vs. R2S wil purely depend on the range/features that both provide. I can live without a camp speaker & air suspension. But I’d love to see 350 miles of range, heated (not necessarily ventilated) seats, moon roof, and 500-600 HP for 60K. At that price with those specs/features I’m pretty sure I’d be fine saying no to an R1S.

If I don’t go that route, I WILL go with the R1S refresh that’s rumored to have the 1000+hp. It may sound crazy, but I’m willing to pay more & save longer for the specs I want + insane features that I may or may not use as often vs. take the savings on a car that isn’t what I’m looking for (lacking in range/comforts) in my next vehicle purchase.

 

[MidnightRivian]

Questions:
1) is this 2024 $ carried out to 2034, or did you inflate it using 2%/yr CGAR for inflation?

2) Did you assume that there is no major update to R1 line design and features?

3) Have you considered major step change in technology (e.g., solid state battery (SSB), on-board AI based drive+)

My guess is that the value of R1 is going to take a major hit in value when the battery/motor warrantee expires, SSB is introduced with significantly faster charging and range improvement and much lighter weight.

So in 10 yrs, $17K in 2034 dollars is probably good for very clean vehicle with low mileage. Worse for high mileage and with some blemishes.

I am using 2024 dollars and not inflating it to 2034 doll hairs

My depreciation schedule accounts for higher depreciation towards the start due to warranty expiring by year 4 when you hit 60,000 miles and new technology being introduced / refreshed product from Rivian.

It slows down towards the second half but has a large hit around year 8 as the battery warranty expires and slows down even more closer to 10 years.

I can see a huge demand for Rivians with quad motor for overlanding similar to what we see with Lexus GX 460 / 470 after 10 year point which will help give some support for resale values.

 

[RivianRiverRat]

Pre and Post pricing
EDIT - this is not my work, can’t remember who compiled it and I copied it right at 2 years ago

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

Right now the news media is really down on EVs and we're going through a general decline and used car values over all. For Rivian and Tesla of course Tesla's not a good example because they decreased their prices by well over 20% recently, but both of them with the over the air software updates continue to get better with time. So I would expect Rivian and Tesla to hold their values better than others for that reason.

Fuel prices are on the rise right now and if they get over $4 and close to $5 a gallon like they did in June of 2022, I think we're going to see the media fall back in love with EVs again.

 

[COdogman]

I think your analysis is pretty accurate, although it's such a weird EV market it hard to say if the same patterns will hold true, or for how long. I can see a world in which R1 values hold longer than typical, and I can see a world in which they drop like an RV or luxury vehicle.

One of the main reasons I bought my last vehicle, a Toyota Tacoma TRD Pro, was because they hold their value better than most vehicles and that turned out to be true. In fact the equity that truck gave me was what allowed me to buy my R1T and make it affordable for me. I paid $38k for that Tacoma slightly used and after driving it for 4 years Rivian gave me $36k for it as my trade in can't beat that.

I don't see myself going back to SUVs again, but in 2026 I may feel differently and an R2 would probably be a consideration for me.

 

[Jblaze121]

Anyone buying $100k car isn't too worried about depreciation, it's just part of the game.
That being said, when the R1S is no longer the main family car, I look forward to doing stupid stuff. Maybe remove the air suspension after warranty expires, remove glass roof or at least make 3rd row sun roof actionable for venting, and god know where battery tech will be. Perhaps the current space needed for the 135kwh battery would allow you to put something that gives over 1000 miles. I'm hoping the aftermarket really picks up.

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