Rivian 10 year Depreciation Schedule and Cross Shopping with R2 in 2026

[GreenOptimist]

Anyone buying $100k car isn't too worried about depreciation, it's just part of the game.
That being said, when the R1S is no longer the main family car, I look forward to doing stupid stuff. Maybe remove the air suspension after warranty expires, remove glass roof or at least make 3rd row sun roof actionable for venting, and god know where battery tech will be. Perhaps the current space needed for the 135kwh battery would allow you to put something that gives over 1000 miles. I'm hoping the aftermarket really picks up.

Thinking along the same lines. Would love to replace the glass roof with a hard top panel that can be removed for nice weather.

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[ksurfier]

After 10 years I would guess the 2033 value of the R1S to be $30k and the R1T to be $20k, each with 150,000 miles. Total gas/service savings compared to ICE SUV would be $30k-$40k. Depreciation of $10k/year for first 2-3 years, plus additional $5k/year after that…$50k R1S year 5, a lot depends on future inflation as well as fuel/oil price and availability…So far last I checked there is only around a 10-15 year supply of oil at current consumption level…a lot will change in 10 years…

 

[shap]

After 10 years I would guess the 2033 value of the R1S to be $30k and the R1T to be $20k, each with 150,000 miles. Total gas/service savings compared to ICE SUV would be $30k-$40k. Depreciation of $10k/year for first 2-3 years, plus additional $5k/year after that…$50k R1S year 5, a lot depends on future inflation as well as fuel/oil price and availability…So far last I checked there is only around a 10-15 year supply of oil at current consumption level…a lot will change in 10 years…

More like 47 years of oil supply: https://www.worldometers.info/oil/

Also as for the current prices - R1T 2023 Quad Adventure is sold for about $70k-$73k range.
I think we are going to see accelerated depreciation going forward as well. Taking into consideration battery innovation in the future, I think we can expect an even more serious drop in value.

IMHO, leasing is the only "safe harbor" approach to driving EVs right now. Unless you just do not care about money

 

[ksurfier]

More like 47 years of oil supply: https://www.worldometers.info/oil/

Ha, that depends on how you define it.
1P reserves are estimated at ~255 billion barrels (Gb) as of 1/1/2024, 2P at 475 Gb. World consumes almost 30 Gb each year. You can do the math.
1P reserves are a conservative estimate in existing fields. (Proved)
2P are a most likely estimate. (Proved + Probable)

 

[shap]

Yep, it depends on how you count this. But even 10-15 years in our timeline is huge amount of time We can not even predict what will happen in November

 

[ksurfier]

Yep, it depends on how you count this. But even 10-15 years in our timeline is huge amount of time We can not even predict what will happen in November

Oh you mean Trump winning?
It’s a coin-flip, unfortunately Biden is starting to make trump look good! Take your pick, walking corpse or insurrectionist…the way it almost always flip flops, could be Trump in 2025…

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