I just read where RJ was critiquing people who purchase gasoline vehicles.

[madgrey]

And you all make me laugh. In the end you all burn fuel. Unless you have solar panels how do you think most of the electricity is generated? Some type of fossil fuels.

Depends on the state. True for MA, West Virginia and many others. Some like Washington, Vermont and Idaho get more than 50% of requirements from renewable. Texas leads in absolute numbers last time I checked, mostly from wind power but they mostly use natural gas.

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[emoore]

Not so fast people. Not every one can afford to pay more than $20k for a vehicle.
Also as of last week the U.S. electric vehicle inventory was at about 100 days of inventory.
Electric is not for everyone. The wife does a 250 mile trip to see her mom once a month. She does not want an electric car.
And you all make me laugh. In the end you all burn fuel. Unless you have solar panels how do you think most of the electricity is generated? Some type of fossil fuels.

Not for lang. electric car fuel van get cleaner. Gas cars can’t. And sooner or later you won’t be able to buy an gas car.

 

[BigSkies]

Not so fast people. Not every one can afford to pay more than $20k for a vehicle.
Also as of last week the U.S. electric vehicle inventory was at about 100 days of inventory.
Electric is not for everyone. The wife does a 250 mile trip to see her mom once a month. She does not want an electric car.
And you all make me laugh. In the end you all burn fuel. Unless you have solar panels how do you think most of the electricity is generated? Some type of fossil fuels.

That's a false equivalency.

In the US, average emissions for electricity are about 1 lb per kWh. It's around 2lbs/kWh in coal heavy states like Wyoming and West Virginia. It's less that 0.5lbs/kWh in California. Even lower in Washington where hydropower is dominant. You can browse state-level data here. It's based on where power is produced and not where it's consumed, but it's still pretty useful. Your utilitiy may report their number as well. You can search for "emissions intensity" with your utility name to see if they have any reports published. My utility is around 0.9lbs / kWh and declining rapidly.

Also, with the Inflation Reduction Act and the new clean power rules, there's some serious plans for growth in renewables over the next decade. Some of the claims about renewables penetration are outlandinsh, but I think a 70-80% reduction in carbon intenstity by 2035 is plausible. Particularly if the bulk of plant retirements are coal based. Look at that EPA link above, but show data at the plant level. It becomes instantly obvious how the prevelance of coal in particular influences total emissions.

In contrast, gasoline emits 19.37lbs of emissions per gallon. That number is fixed. Although you could go with a number in the ~17.9 range if you want to be pedantic and believe the claim that ethanol is carbon neutral (it isn't).

So a Rivian will produce about 0.5 lbs of emissions per mile at 2mi/kWh. And that number will decline over time.

A car that gets 20 mpg will have emissions of about 1 lb per mile, and that number will never go down for the life of the car.

Just saying that fossil fuels exist somewhere in the chain doesn't mean there's any equivalency between the two.

 

[Boston Bill]

And you all are correct. So let’s move on to what isn’t being discussed.
A lot of people can’t afford an electric vehicle. How are they supposed to get around?
For various and many reasons hence the surplus of new electric vehicles.

 

[emoore]

And you all are correct. So let’s move on to what isn’t being discussed.
A lot of people can’t afford an electric vehicle. How are they supposed to get around?
For various and many reasons hence the surplus of new electric vehicles.

So you think EVs will always be expensive? It’s like s art phones or any new technologies. flat screen TVs used to be very expensive. And now they range from expensive to cheap. It will eventually happen with EVs.

 

[Zorg]

Quick notes:
- climate change is real
- EVs are always more efficient than their ICE counterpart
- grid keeps getting cleaner and less fossil fuel intensive
- EV remain too expensive for most however are trending toward being less expensive

A green infrastructure would usher an era of inexpensive and abundant power. Let's hope it happens. Biggest stumbling block is lack of long term storage.

 

[BigSkies]

And you all are correct. So let’s move on to what isn’t being discussed.
A lot of people can’t afford an electric vehicle. How are they supposed to get around?
For various and many reasons hence the surplus of new electric vehicles.

Not everyone can afford them today, but more affordable versions are coming. I think the Equinox and Volvo EX 30 will be excellent options in the near future.

And if you haven't noticed, the price of new ICE vehicles has skyrocketed in the last few years. A moderately equipped Rav4 is nearly $35k these days. And I've heard the average revenue per car is now higher at GM than Tesla, but I haven't taken the effort to verify that claim.

Obviously there's still differences in capabilities, markets, and individual desirability. But it's changing rapidly.

I think this will start to become more obvious to the average consumer around 2025 or 2026. A huge amount of money has been invested into EV production capacity, and that's about the time those large scale factories will come online. It won't be long after that until we have real price competition and EV models that are really being produced at scale in the multiple hundreds of thousands per line.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

And you all are correct. So let’s move on to what isn’t being discussed.
A lot of people can’t afford an electric vehicle. How are they supposed to get around?
For various and many reasons hence the surplus of new electric vehicles.

Name me one new technology that continued to be used that didn't get cheaper the longer it was developed. Hint, there is none. The first LCD TV I bought was 48" and was 4K dollars in early 2000's money. Now you can buy an LED with much better resolution and a much bigger screen for less than half that price. Technology always gets cheaper and the more people who adopt EVs the more the economy of scale can take effect and the cheaper they can be.

Not to mention if we look at total cost of ownership the disparity already isn't that bad considering all the maintenance items on ICE cars that EVs simply do not have. Let alone the much fewer and more reliable parts of an EV compared to an internal combustion engine. The people limping along in beater cars are going to be much better served when older EVs get to them because there will be much less things to break on them.

 

[COdogman]

And you all are correct. So let’s move on to what isn’t being discussed.
A lot of people can’t afford an electric vehicle. How are they supposed to get around?
For various and many reasons hence the surplus of new electric vehicles.

You are correct that most EVs are out of the average person's price range at the moment. But that is currently also true of most new ICE vehicles as well. That will only change with more adoption.

Folks with a lower budget would be better served with a low maintenance EV than they would a crappy ICE car that is unreliable. It would also be great if there was affordable ways to convert ICE vehicles to EVs. There are many problems that have to get solved...We are still a long way from the extinction of ICE vehicles.

 

[White Shadow]

Well, I guess RJ was talking about people like me. I just purchased a brand new Jeep Grand Cherokee. I had a 2019 Grand Cherokee and had seriously considered replacing it with an R1S, but ultimately decided against it. Why? Well, I decided several months ago that I'm going to wait until EVs get better before jumping in. I want longer ranges, quicker charging, and most importantly---better infrastructure. In my opinion, EVs just aren't good enough yet to purchase one.

Affordability isn't a factor for me. My Jeep was priced about the same as an R1S as I'd configure it. I'm not worried about gas prices and I'm not trying to save the planet. My automotive purchasing decisions are primarily based upon my use needs. The way I see it, in 2033 I'll consider going electric again if things have gotten significantly better, but I have my doubts about that. I think much of this forum is out of touch with reality. 10 years from now, gas stations and gas cars will still be everywhere. In fact, they'll still be the majority of cars by a big margin.

Maybe I can come back to this comment in 2033 and see if Im right....

 

[SteveInBend]

I want longer ranges, quicker charging, and most importantly---better infrastructure. In my opinion, EVs just aren't good enough yet to purchase one.

I think it depends on how much long distance traveling you do. For many people having the pluses of having ability to "refuel" at home > 90% of the time outweighs the minuses of the current state of charging infrastructure and the time required to charge. Can you charge at home? Are chargers are available along the way and reasonably proximal to your destination?

My wife and I did a trip earlier this year from Bend, OR to Bryce Canyon, Zion, and Grand Canyon National Parks. Of course we had to plan our route, but the only places we had any issues were getting from Central Oregon to Idaho (had to take a somewhat longer route) and having to stay overnight at a hotel in California on our return trip in order to recharge the R1T. This was only necessary because I wanted to avoid the I-5 interstate.

 

[White Shadow]

I think it depends on how much long distance traveling you do. For many people having the pluses of having ability to "refuel" at home > 90% of the time outweighs the minuses of the current state of charging infrastructure and the time required to charge. Can you charge at home? Are chargers are available along the way and reasonably proximal to your destination?

My wife and I did a trip earlier this year from Bend, OR to Bryce Canyon, Zion, and Grand Canyon National Parks. Of course we had to plan our route, but the only places we had any issues were getting from Central Oregon to Idaho (had to take a somewhat longer route) and having to stay overnight at a hotel in California on our return trip in order to recharge the R1T. This was only necessary because I wanted to avoid the I-5 interstate.

We do a lot of road trips and for the most part, we're just trying to get to our destination quickly.

 

[emoore]

Well, I guess RJ was talking about people like me. I just purchased a brand new Jeep Grand Cherokee. I had a 2019 Grand Cherokee and had seriously considered replacing it with an R1S, but ultimately decided against it. Why? Well, I decided several months ago that I'm going to wait until EVs get better before jumping in. I want longer ranges, quicker charging, and most importantly---better infrastructure. In my opinion, EVs just aren't good enough yet to purchase one.

Affordability isn't a factor for me. My Jeep was priced about the same as an R1S as I'd configure it. I'm not worried about gas prices and I'm not trying to save the planet. My automotive purchasing decisions are primarily based upon my use needs. The way I see it, in 2033 I'll consider going electric again if things have gotten significantly better, but I have my doubts about that. I think much of this forum is out of touch with reality. 10 years from now, gas stations and gas cars will still be everywhere. In fact, they'll still be the majority of cars by a big margin.

Maybe I can come back to this comment in 2033 and see if Im right....

Technology changes faster than people think. It’s called the s curve. EVs will be all over the place in 10 years. The IEA has historically gotten solar and wind adoption wrong year after year. I agree with RJ that buying an ICE car now is like buying a horse in the early 1900s

 

[Thedude]

I agree with RJ that buying an ICE car now is like buying a horse in the early 1900s

Only if your needs can be met by an EV in its current state. I agree that in ten years EVs and the supporting infrastructure will likely be a complete non-issue but for now there are a lot of things an EV just can’t do and lifestyles they can’t support.

 

[emoore]

Only if your needs can be met by an EV in its current state. I agree that in ten years EVs and the supporting infrastructure will likely be a complete non-issue but for now there are a lot of things an EV just can’t do and lifestyles they can’t support.

I think they’re a few things they can’t support. The only real thing is cost. People tend to overestimate the distance they drive and how many road trips they do in a year.

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