Take it FWIW - Rivian, Tesla, and Fisker may go Bankrupt

[oskeei]

We need forum badges or something so we can throw a Chicken Little badge on folks who keep saying the sky is falling.

In that same respect, on the other extreme, need a Launch Green Kool Aid man for all those who can't tolerate ANYTHING being said negative about Rivian.

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[jakef801]

Just a friendly heads up for my fellow Riv Forums members. I have moved A LOT of my cast to American Express savings. They are currently paying 3.75% interest (while Chase, Key, etc. continue to have pathetically offensive rates of 0.01% [Chase].

I would argue that American Express is a VERY strong & safe place to park your cash.

 

[DuoRivians]

Just a friendly heads up for my fellow Riv Forums members. I have moved A LOT of my cast to American Express savings. They are currently paying 3.75% interest (while Chase, Key, etc. continue to have pathetically offensive rates of 0.01% [Chase].

I would argue that American Express is a VERY strong & safe place to park your cash.

Let's:

1/ Not give financial advice
2/ Stop speculating who goes bankrupt

 

[White Shadow]

I don't see Tesla going bankrupt at all....and if they do, I still think the company will survive. But as for any of the other EV start-ups, I for sure can see they going bankrupt and completely folding. I hope that doesn't happen, but it wouldn't surprise me if it does. The legacy automakers will still be around to keep EVs alive and well in any case, but I don't see them pushing the envelope at all.

 

[White Shadow]

Just a friendly heads up for my fellow Riv Forums members. I have moved A LOT of my cast to American Express savings. They are currently paying 3.75% interest (while Chase, Key, etc. continue to have pathetically offensive rates of 0.01% [Chase].

I would argue that American Express is a VERY strong & safe place to park your cash.

Strictly for savings, there are a number of "online" savings accounts that will pay around 4% and are still FDIC insured. Just look at Marcus and Lending Club for example.

 

[Southern R1S]

The only way to compete with an established company like Tesla (or the other big manufacturers) is to (a) have access to enormous amounts of cash to weather the ramp up years, and/or (b) significantly differentiate your product so you're not competing for the same buyers.

Rivian checks both of those boxes with their large (but rapidly dwindling) stockpile of cash as well as access to more (see the line of credit increase announced yesterday), and they are selling a product that is significantly differentiated from the EVs being offered by Tesla (or by any other manufacturer in meaningful quantities).

I'm not saying they will or will not go bankrupt (anyone who could accurately predict that outcome would be actively trading on it rather than posting on here), nor am I willing to wear blinders and pretend that there's no pain ahead for Rivian, but I'm still comfortable enough that they will be around in some form or another (which could of course take the shape of an acquisition or merger) for the foreseeable future that I have no heartburn taking delivery of my R1S next week.

 

[SASSquatch]

I think the title is in error - Tesla may not go bankrupt, they're the ones the article suggests is causing the others to go bankrupt.

In any event, I think for a lot of people looking to buy the most economical EV, Tesla will be the obvious choice especially as they can afford to slash their prices below the competition. The other EV companies that choose to compete against them in that segment will have an uphill battle. Rivian is competing in a different segment though. Until Tesla makes a pickup truck or SUV that doesn't look like something out of the Aliens franchise, I don't see Tesla pricing being a determining factor in whether a Rivian prospective buyer commits or not.

That's exactly it. I don't think Rivian is going to be competing with Tesla at this stage because the products are so different. Rivian is more likely to be competing with Ford, Ram, Jeep, and others who will be releasing vehicles in a category (adventure/sport) that is directly inline with Rivian.

But all of them are OEMs and they will have much more difficult paths to scaling and profitability because of their legacy business model.

Rivian is in a very strong position to succeed but they must execute, and they must get their lower cost vehicles (R2/R3) to market like Tesla did with the Model 3. The R1S/R1T is the S/X of Tesla - and Tesla didn't see profitability until they started mass production of the more affordable Model 3.

 

[kizamybute']

I thought I got a great deal when I loaded up on a BUNCH of shares at just under $30. It immediately went up and I took out about 15% of what I had invested as profit. Then, the crap hit the fan and it started falling. Figured it would just be a short term decline as positive news was coming and it did, Problem, we gained about 10% on each bit of positive news then lost about 20-25% on every bit of poorly released news from Rivian. The news wasn't necessarily negative, but Rivian's management released it in a manner at the worst possible times and made it sound bad, when it really wasn't. Figured I was in for the long haul now. But, it just kept going down and down and down. Finally gave up at about $17 per share and off-loaded all but 10% of what I had. Thus far, I guess I'm glad I salvaged what little was left being that its now in the $12 range. Pretty sad, because it really doesn't have anything to do with the strength of the company. Shares are now trading at BELOW their cash reserves. Meaning, if they closed up shop tomorrow, the company is worth more than what the stock price indicates just based on cash reserves alone. That's not including what they could recoup from all the equipment, existing vehicles waiting to be delivered, etc.

The whole stock market is a mess right now, but Rivian's stock just makes no logical sense that it's where it's at. If you think the company has no real value, the stock should be at around $20 as that's likely what could be recaptured if it shut down tomorrow. Had to get off that "no logic" train. If it ever starts to recover, then I'll consider jumping back on board, As of now, I've saved myself thousands and thousand of dollars by having given up at $17.00. Unfortunately, lost 5 times that before I off-loaded.

Great product, great backing, huge backlog of orders that will take AT LEAST two years go get through. They're not going anywhere for at least a couple of years. Again, just makes no logical sense for it to be where it's at.

 

[jakef801]

Let's:

1/ Not give financial advice
2/ Stop speculating who goes bankrupt

Just letting people know what's out there. Not recommending what anyone do with their money. Some people might not be aware and I like to share friendly info. Also, I didn't speculate that anyone's going bankrupt - I quoted an article.

 

[Shzeph]

So I’m not gonna comment or speculate as to the likelihood of Rivian going bankrupt, cause I majored in Poli-Sci, and therefore don’t know math or finance

BUT, I will just leave this link to the source of the quoted analysis. It’s probably not fair to judge an organisation’s quality by its website, but like…..

https://www.globalequitiesresearch.com/

 

[jakef801]

So I’m not gonna comment or speculate as to the likelihood of Rivian going bankrupt, cause I majored in Poli-Sci, and therefore don’t know math or finance

BUT, I will just leave this link to the source of the quoted analysis. It’s probably not fair to judge an organisation’s quality by its website, but like…..

https://www.globalequitiesresearch.com/

Ha ha, that looks like a website from like 2003.

 

[lefkonj]

Tesla, Rivian and even Lucid won't go bankrupt but could they be bought out or merge with some else, of course. More garbage reporting from the crappy short buyers of the world.

 

[SDH]

So what if they go bankrupt (Ch.11)? They won't just vanish off the face of the Earth. How many times has Aston Martin gone bankrupt? (Answer: 7). That's right. SEVEN.
GM/Chrysler ... do they still make cars or were they consigned to ashes. Oh that's right, they're still around.

Stop watching the Rivian stock price and shitting yourself.

 

[clcbjc123]

Tesla, Rivian and even Lucid won't go bankrupt but could they be bought out or merge with some else, of course. More garbage reporting from the crappy short buyers of the world.

Rivian has a long way to go before they have proprietary technology someone would want.

 

[manitou202]

Tesla, Rivian and even Lucid won't go bankrupt but could they be bought out or merge with some else, of course. More garbage reporting from the crappy short buyers of the world.

This right here.

It would take a lot for Tesla to go bankrupt at this point, so no point in even debating.

Rivian has some serious brand equity and some very compelling vehicles. Another automaker would most likely buy them and merge the Rivian brand with their own. They are almost becoming the EV Jeep and Land Rover brand.

Lucid would be highly sought after for their powertrain and battery tech. Maybe not so much for their actual vehicles. I could imagine Mercedes or BMW buying them for example.

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