Sponsored

jjswan33

Well-Known Member
First Name
Joshua
Joined
Sep 17, 2021
Threads
116
Messages
3,649
Reaction score
7,724
Location
Sandy, OR
Vehicles
Rivian R1T LE, Hyundai Ioniq 5 Limited
Occupation
Engineer
Clubs
 
The fact is Rivian does not have Apple Car Play. Whether or not this is because of software or a legal agreement with Amazon I don't know. I think it's fair to say most people would rather have Apple Car Play. Maybe someone who knows more than me can explain why Rivian doesn't have Apple Car Play....
It's not software and it's not a legal agreement. Rivian doesn't have CP because they have decided not to include it, the official word is they think they can do better you know the old Steve Jobs Paradigm, ie we know what our customers want/need better than them.

Bottom line I think they will introduce CP and AA sooner or later simply from a competition stand point, people want it so Rivian has no reason to give people a reason to choose the competition.
Sponsored

 

Tahoe Man

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 12, 2022
Threads
1
Messages
523
Reaction score
464
Location
Tahoe
Vehicles
Chevy Volt
If it hasn't been mentioned already, the fear is that Amazon will reduce their Rivian stock holdings the way Ford did. WS is reading between the lines of reduced delivery commitment for 2023 and willingness to renegotiate exclusivity.

While getting rid of exclusive arrangement sounds a plus for Rivian, it assumes that there are other buyers for EDV, at the pace Rivian can make them. Maybe...maybe not.

The way many Amazon delivers goods is that they use contracted delivery services companies that wear Amazon logo and colors. Amazon buys the vans and these businesses lease it from Amazon. An interesting business model. You would never know they are not directly employed by Amazon.

The delivery of 10k vehicles for 2023 is a function of Amazon needing to mange their expenditures. As such, it is natural for Rivian to want to sell their products (excess capacity for this year). GM/Brightdrop, Ram and even Canoo are selling their vehicles for commercial use. Rivian is betting that they can deliver to new customers this year.

Rivian management will most likely face some activist investor sooner than later to challenge their board members and potentially restructure the C-Suite at the company. The stock price has taken a beating since the disappointing production forecast (everyone is expecting 62k now regardless of what is "official"), debt offering with potential dilution by use of convertible note, now Amazon story. All of this on the top of demand question (pulled backlog off the website and the earnings call), and high interest rate on auto loans in the inflationary environment.
Amazon owns 17% from much higher levels. They're ending the pact agreement with Rivian. This doesn't look good if you're Rivian even if the excuse is "oh great, Rivian can sell the vans to others now".

Perhaps Amazon is seeing the writing on the wall.
 

jjswan33

Well-Known Member
First Name
Joshua
Joined
Sep 17, 2021
Threads
116
Messages
3,649
Reaction score
7,724
Location
Sandy, OR
Vehicles
Rivian R1T LE, Hyundai Ioniq 5 Limited
Occupation
Engineer
Clubs
 
From Apple News: https://apple.news/Arcx-9Z2mTgaw-B9zRG-1pQ

Direct link (behind a paywall): https://www.barrons.com/articles/rivian-stock-price-amazon-electric-truck-a1ea00f6

Full text:

Barron’s “Rivian Stock Falls on Amazon News. It Might Be an Overreaction.”


S hares of Rivian Automotive fell after a report said the electric truck start-up is in talks to end an exclusivity pact with Amazon.com. That might have been an overreaction, judging by Amazon’s response to the news.


The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Rivian (ticker: RIVN) is seeking to remove an exclusivity term in its agreement with Amazon (AMZN) after the e-commerce retailer ordered about 10,000 electric delivery vans for this year, which was on the lower end of Amazon’s range.


Amazon told Barron’s it still plans to purchase 100,000 Rivian vans by 2030. The company can buy vans from anyone under the terms of the agreement. Rivian, on the other hand, can only sell its vans to Amazon.


Rivian didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the report.


Rivan shares (ticker: RIVN) fell 3% Monday. The S&P 500 declined 0.2% while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%.


However, the end of the exclusivity pact would be a good thing for Rivian. That would allow Rivian to sell commercial vehicles to more than one customer. Amazon is committed to Rivian in the long run, too.


“While nothing has changed with our agreement with Rivian, we’ve always said that we want others to benefit from their technology in the long run because having more electric delivery vehicles on the road is good for our communities and our planet,” an Amazon spokesperson said. “That’s a big part of why we invest in companies like Rivian—to both meet our needs and to help scale technologies that will benefit others and protect our planet for future generations.”


Amazon was an early investor in Rivian and holds about 17% of the total shares outstanding.


Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said an ending of the exclusivity deal would be a potential positive, but noted that skeptics remain. “It’s a potential win but right now the Street feels like Rivian cannot walk and chew gum at the same time,” Ives said. He rates shares Buy and has a $25 price target.


Rivian has had trouble ramping up its production. Wall Street expected roughly 60,000 deliveries in 2023. The company guided to about 50,000 units.


The stock’s performance has not been good, either. Shares are down 26% this year and off about 64% over the past 12 months.
 

Sponsored

Craigins

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2021
Threads
2
Messages
1,555
Reaction score
2,355
Location
Chicago Suburbs
Vehicles
Rivian R1T
Occupation
Software engineer
Clubs
 
Rivian has stated that plant is set for a 55/45 split of R1/EDV so they want to build more than 67k a year.
I must have missed this, do you have a reference for it? The original plan for the plant was for 65k/85k R1/EDV.
 

nc10

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2021
Threads
33
Messages
491
Reaction score
539
Location
South Carolina
Vehicles
R1T LE, EV6 GT Line
Occupation
Engineer
don't see how this is a bad thing for Rivian. A one sided contract that benefited Amazon wasn't the greatest thing for Rivian, but that's all a long shot upstart can get. The original contract was for 100K vehicles over 10 years which is 10K a year. Amazon isn't taking any less than they planned.
Rivian led us to expect 100,000 EDV's in the first 5 years (2021 to 2025 at that time). Taking 10 years is a pretty big step back...from what investors were led to believe.

The S-1 talks about exclusivity in years 1-4, and right of 1st refusal in years 5-6. Can you provide a link to somethat that shows the basis for the original 10 year 100k reference?

For example, statements from the S-1 in Oct 2021:


" Growth in Automotive Sales. We expect to generate revenue from the sale of new consumer and commercial vehicles, vehicle accessories, regulatory credits, used and trade-in vehicles, and Rivian merchandise. As of September 30, 2021, we had approximately 48,390 R1T and R1S preorders in the United States and Canada from customers who each paid a cancellable and fully refundable deposit of $1,000. Our commercial vehicles will initially consist of EDVs, and we plan to deliver 100,000 EDVs to Amazon by 2025. We expect vehicle demand to outpace our production volumes in the near-term as we work to fulfill customer preorders and continue to add to our backlog of preorders."


Our launch vehicles in the commercial space are a portfolio of EDVs designed in collaboration with Amazon. In September 2019, we entered into an agreement with Amazon under which Amazon has initially ordered, subject to modification, 100,000 EDVs. We expect to deliver these vehicles by 2025 and continue our relationship with Amazon thereafter..................


We believe certain aspects of the EDV’s design and styling will remain exclusive to Amazon. EDVs will be built in 500, 700, and 900 cubic feet sizes. The 500 and 700 are planned for launch in late 2021 and early 2022 respectively, and the 900 is planned thereafter.
 

mkg3

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2021
Threads
41
Messages
1,344
Reaction score
1,750
Location
SoCal
Vehicles
Unagi, Radio Flyer and Kette Car
Clubs
 
Amazon owns 17% from much higher levels. They're ending the pact agreement with Rivian. This doesn't look good if you're Rivian even if the excuse is "oh great, Rivian can sell the vans to others now".

Perhaps Amazon is seeing the writing on the wall.
We agree... Its the 17% that Amazon has to keep writing it down (mark to market) each quarter as $RIVN share price drops that hit Amazon balance sheet.
 
OP
OP

Guy

Well-Known Member
First Name
Guy
Joined
Nov 6, 2021
Threads
11
Messages
1,598
Reaction score
1,504
Location
Philadelphia suburbs
Vehicles
Mazda 6, Toyota Sienna
Occupation
Scientist
Clubs
 
I must have missed this, do you have a reference for it? The original plan for the plant was for 65k/85k R1/EDV.
That plan has changed since 65k R1 is ludicrously low and 85k EDV is too many.
 

NineElectrics

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 7, 2022
Threads
49
Messages
915
Reaction score
1,114
Location
US
Vehicles
R1S

Sponsored

Craigins

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2021
Threads
2
Messages
1,555
Reaction score
2,355
Location
Chicago Suburbs
Vehicles
Rivian R1T
Occupation
Software engineer
Clubs
 

clcbjc123

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 28, 2022
Threads
2
Messages
57
Reaction score
66
Location
Arkansas
Vehicles
Tahoe and Z07
At first I was mad that I got bumped to fall '23 and now I think its a blessing. Let's see how the next 6 months shake out in the market.

I don't see this as good for Rivian. Walmart went with Brightdrop (GM) and a few Canoo's. FedEx went with GM. UPS teams up with Arrival. USPS went with Ford and of course, defense contractor Oshkosh. Rivian needs a new friend to keep investors happy.
 
Last edited:

SASSquatch

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2022
Threads
34
Messages
1,834
Reaction score
3,563
Location
Washington DC
Vehicles
BMW i3s Ford C-Max Hybrid
Occupation
Semi-Autonomous Yeti
Clubs
 
Probably because any connection with the RIVN symbol isn't exactly an asset.
I think everyone is being way too speculative and harsh. Amazon didn’t change their order parameters, they are still buying 100,000 EDVs from Rivian, just reducing their yearly order fulfillmen.

I guarantee you Amazon got a sweetheart deal on those EDVs and so just like Pre March 1 2022 reservation holders there arent big profit margins

by ending exclusivity it frees up Rivian to peruse other contracts with higher profit margins and may allow them to rengage with Mercedes on building vans in a joint ventur for the European market While allowing Amazon to partner with other manufacturers who have higher production capability than Rivian.

This may be a win/win.
 

jjswan33

Well-Known Member
First Name
Joshua
Joined
Sep 17, 2021
Threads
116
Messages
3,649
Reaction score
7,724
Location
Sandy, OR
Vehicles
Rivian R1T LE, Hyundai Ioniq 5 Limited
Occupation
Engineer
Clubs
 
I think everyone is being way too speculative and harsh. Amazon didn’t change their order parameters, they are still buying 100,000 EDVs from Rivian, just reducing their yearly order fulfillmen.

I guarantee you Amazon got a sweetheart deal on those EDVs and so just like Pre March 1 2022 reservation holders there arent big profit margins

by ending exclusivity it frees up Rivian to peruse other contracts with higher profit margins and may allow them to rengage with Mercedes on building vans in a joint ventur for the European market While allowing Amazon to partner with other manufacturers who have higher production capability than Rivian.

This may be a win/win.
It doesn't sound like they are even reducing anything just saying they want less vans than Rivian wanted to deliver to them in 2023. Secondly as I understand the deal with Amazon is cost+ so Rivian makes money regardless but I guess they can potentially get higher margins from other customers.

To be fair most here that are being overly speculative and harsh have been the same way on every thread about Rivian lately, so you know haters will be haters.
Sponsored

 
 




Top