Any "March-April" delivery people contacted?

[KiloV]

Your statement indicates you don't understand much about the automotive supply chian process. Not that everyone should, but if you're gonig to criticize and beat up Rivian, you should know the facts and reasons why Rivian (and the rest) are suffering. Some of this IS out of there control DESPITE placing orders YEARS ago.

Since "chips" are the frequent problem, let's use that as an example. First off, everyone assumes it's computer chips/microprocessors that are the problem. Partially, but it's also 50 cent voltage regulators and 1 cent capacitors - identical components used in everything from cars to video games to Keurigs to IV infusion pumps.

A foundry can pump out hundreds of thousands of devices a day. If that foundry shuts down for a week due to COVID, we are talking a shortage of MILLIONS of devices. MILLIONS. Starting to see the problem?

At this time, it appears Rivian is not vertically integrated on circuit board fabrication, although they are doing some of their own design from what I have read. So they are contracting with companies like Foxconn, Infineon, etc. to manage the details of chip and board fab/assembly, etc. For example, 18 months ago, Rivian would have said "Hey Infineon, we need 2,000 TLE984x Smart Lift window controller assembled boards per month starting in July 2021." It's a bit more involved than that, but it works for this discussion. So Infineon builds this into their bulk orders for custom foundry production of the Smart Lift window controller chip, and "off the shelf" components from bulk component suppliers.

But wait - there's a freeze in Texas that shuts down foundries, an earthquake in Japan destroys a foundry that takes 6 months to bring back online, COVID shuts down foundries across the globe creating shortages of TENS OF MILLIONS of "generic" components, and demand increases for electronics because everyone is working from home. Then more COVID shutdowns, etc.

So now, Infineon can't get the TLE984x Smart Lift window controller chip for 5 months, and a voltage regulator shortage causes additional delays once the window chips are avaialble.

This is how it works......... Is this Rivian's fault???? They placed the order 18 months or two years ago.

This is a terrific analysis of one of the challenges that everyone (including Rivian) is facing. Thanks for the insight.

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[AdamsFan1983]

Come on, now. Rivian hasn't been good at communications and I wish they were moving more quickly at producing vehicles (bring me my damn truck!), but they haven't pushed back delivery targets a half dozen times. Here's the actual history:
1. Rivian announced in late 2018 that they intended to "start production" of vehicles in Dec 2020.
2. They announced, due to the pandemic and supply chain issues, that they would be slipping the start of production to Jul 2021.
3. They announced that the Jul 2021 start date for production would slide to Sep 2021. For my money, sliding the start of production 9 months due to the pandemic and associated problems isn't a big deal.
4. As far as I know, the first people that were disappointed by actual delivery window estimate slippage were a handful of people who were told that they could expect delivery in Oct/Nov. Those handful of people were slipped to Jan/Feb. Most of them, as far as I know, haven't received their trucks yet. Those people have a reason to be a bit bent out of shape.
5. The rest of us (starting with the Mar/Apr crowd) haven't missed our estimated delivery windows by even a single day...yet.
6. Are some of us going to experience delays? I'd bet some pretty good money that we are. And we should all feel free to be annoyed when that happens. But let's not engage in revisionist history.

Pedantics aside, I stand by my statement

 

[KiloV]

Pedantics aside, I stand by my statement

I don't think pedantics is a word. I think you're looking for pedantries. Sorry, I guess that was pedantic.
But the facts are the facts. What I laid out was the actual history of what went down. I think it's a shame when people get all wound up over some outrage that never actually occurred; but it's not my place to tell anyone else how to feel about stuff, so I'll shut up now.

 

[Guy]

I don't think pedantics is a word. I think you're looking for pedantries. Sorry, I guess that was pedantic.
But the facts are the facts. What I laid out was the actual history of what went down. I think it's a shame when people get all wound up over some outrage that never actually occurred; but it's not my place to tell anyone else how to feel about stuff, so I'll shut up now.

It is interesting to see the sequence laid out. It does look like those with Jan/Feb (previously Oct/nov, previously July) so have reason, as you pointed out, to be annoyed because they have been repeatedly delayed.

 

[ajbrutman]

Nope. Still standing by...since Nov 2018. ?

I think you should plan on the April part of that March/April window. ?

same

 

[mgc0216]

I will grant that the scenario you describe is not Rivian's fault but missing your own delivery dates again and again is Rivian's fault at a certain point. No one but Rivian made those projections and forecasts. And, more importantly, the communication failures and basic customer interactions are in Rivian's control and it is worse at those today than it was last summer when it acknowledged its failures and said it would improve.

Communications 100% agree with - it's been dismal and easily rectified.

But, the forecasting? How do you fix that other than to say 'fugggit we have no idea what's going to happen in the world, so we can't give you an estimate that we might not have to walk back later' (which nobody's going to do)?

 

[mgc0216]

Pedantics aside, I stand by my statement

I reject your reality, and choose to substitute my own.

 

[sub]

Come on, now. Rivian hasn't been good at communications and I wish they were moving more quickly at producing vehicles (bring me my damn truck!), but they haven't pushed back delivery targets a half dozen times. Here's the actual history:
1. Rivian announced in late 2018 that they intended to "start production" of vehicles in Dec 2020.
2. They announced, due to the pandemic and supply chain issues, that they would be slipping the start of production to Jul 2021.
3. They announced that the Jul 2021 start date for production would slide to Sep 2021. For my money, sliding the start of production 9 months due to the pandemic and associated problems isn't a big deal.
4. As far as I know, the first people that were disappointed by actual delivery window estimate slippage were a handful of people who were told that they could expect delivery in Oct/Nov. Those handful of people were slipped to Jan/Feb. Most of them, as far as I know, haven't received their trucks yet. Those people have a reason to be a bit bent out of shape.
5. The rest of us (starting with the Mar/Apr crowd) haven't missed our estimated delivery windows by even a single day...yet.
6. Are some of us going to experience delays? I'd bet some pretty good money that we are. And we should all feel free to be annoyed when that happens. But let's not engage in revisionist history.

You are missing the date that they stopped telling people if you order today it will be delivered in January 2022. I think it may have been November or December 2021.

And before you say that "Deliveries begin in January" doesn't actually mean your delivery be in January. If that line had been on the general info page I would agree with you. But they had it on the order form and the date changed depending on the trim you selected. The only reasonable interpretation of that sort of display is that it is when they expect to deliver your order.

Show me any other order form that advertises the date someone else will get their product. If the date was off by a few days/weeks to account for different transit times, that would have been fine. But it was off by 2 years. People who ordered in late 2021 probably won't get their vehicles until 2024 but the website was still implying January 2022.

While I (and I suspect many others) knew it was going to be a much longer wait when I placed my order and I am not at all bothered by the current timeline projections, it was only because I was getting more realistic info from other sources when I ordered. Nearly everyone would have interpreted the ETA as early 2022 if they were only getting their info from Rivian's website.

 

[mgc0216]

And before you say that "Deliveries begin in January" doesn't actually mean your delivery be in January. If that line had been on the general info page I would agree with you. But they had it on the order form and the date changed depending on the trim you selected. The only reasonable interpretation of that sort of display is that it is when they expect to deliver your order.

the only "reasonable" interpretation of that line was if you ordered a vehicle that hadn't shipped to anyone yet, you were going to the front of the line OR they were somehow going to miraculously produce and deliver all the vehicles at the same time?

That's like getting a ticket to a concert with general admission seating where it says "doors at 7pm" and you show up at 7pm thinking that's when you get to walk on in ignoring the folks who lined up three nights before because they are much younger than you and can tolerate sleeping on the sidewalk whereas your old body couldn't even comprehend anything on earth that would lead you to voluntarily sleep on a sidewalk for three days

Ok - I'm projecting a bit on that last part.

To sum it up: First in First out is not a radical concept that's hard to grasp.

 

[jjwolf120]

You are missing the date that they stopped telling people if you order today it will be delivered in January 2022.

They never said the above. What they said was that certain builds would begin deliveries January 2022.

 

[sub]

the only "reasonable" interpretation of that line was if you ordered a vehicle that hadn't shipped to anyone yet, you were going to the front of the line OR they were somehow going to miraculously produce and deliver all the vehicles at the same time?

That's like getting a ticket to a concert with general admission seating where it says "doors at 7pm" and you show up at 7pm thinking that's when you get to walk on in ignoring the folks who lined up three nights before because they are much younger than you and can tolerate sleeping on the sidewalk whereas your old body couldn't even comprehend anything on earth that would lead you to voluntarily sleep on a sidewalk for three days

Ok - I'm projecting a bit on that last part.

To sum it up: First in First out is not a radical concept that's hard to grasp.

No - I do not think you would interpret it as that you get to jump the line. I think you should interpret it as Rivian saying the line isn't very long.

Only Rivian knew how many pre-orders they had or how quickly their assembly line can pump out cars. If they say that they can fulfill all pre-orders within a few months, you SHOULD be able to trust that.

I would agree with your analogy was a good fit if "doors at 7pm" meant that at 7PM they will let the cast in and everyone will have to wait a few years.

 

[sub]

They never said the above. What they said was that certain builds would begin deliveries January 2022.

Show me any other order form that advertises a date they will ship someone else's order. Order forms show the date they expect to ship your order. Sometimes delays happen, but they alway intend the date advertised on the order form to be the date they will ship your order.

 

[mgc0216]

Show me any other order form that advertises a date they will ship someone else's order. Order forms show the date they expect to ship your order. Sometimes delays happen, but they alway intend the date advertised on the order form to be the date they will ship your order.

Show me an order form for Rivian?

 

[mgc0216]

No - I do not think you would interpret it as that you get to jump the line. I think you should interpret it as Rivian saying the line isn't very long.

Why would you interpret it that way? They were simply saying "we're going to start shipping vehicles on x date" - there is no language there indicating how long the wait will be? I reserved in august 2020 and when i saw "starts shipping in january 2021" I assumed that is when the people who ordered before me would start to get their trucks and I'd get mine sometime after theirs - I'm genuinely befuddled why anyone would see it any other way.

 

[SANZC02]

Show me any other order form that advertises a date they will ship someone else's order. Order forms show the date they expect to ship your order. Sometimes delays happen, but they alway intend the date advertised on the order form to be the date they will ship your order.

We did not get an order form, we got a form to place a deposit on a future product that may or may not be delivered at some future date.

You cannot cherry pick any lines but need to read the agreement in its entirety as we all agreed to when we placed our deposits. The only thing we were assured of was that the agreement could be canceled at anytime and the deposit would be fully refundable.

Other than that, everything else including even the ability to deliver a vehicle was no guarantee.

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