Info From RJ's Fireside Chat on June 2nd (w/ mention of LFP batteries)

[SASSquatch]

They actually have 3. EDV500, EDV700 and EDV900

Are those different size vans or different sized battery packs or both?

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[hiimisaac]

Are those different size vans or different sized battery packs or both?

I think just size?

 

[SANZC02]

I think just size?

I think there are battery pack size variations as well. There was one article (can’t find it now) that was talking about smaller packs in denser areas and larger packs in more rural areas based on needs. It was specifically discussing to daily mileage differences in those use cases.

 

[Max]

It really is only a matter of time. Most manufacturing companies (even Ford and GM) start with higher end models with great performance numbers to recoup the initial development costs. Look at what Tesla did starting with the S and X to show the capability of EVs, then went to the 3 for mass production and to start making a profit.

We are rounding the corner where there are enough different battery, motor, and electronic variations that we will start seeing lower price EVs rivaling ICE configurations in the very near future.

The issue that needs to be solved is the charging infrastructure. There are many people in apartments that would get EVs if they had a way to easily charge them. Many people who cannot charge at home will not be willing to go to public chargers for 30 to 90 minutes once or twice a week. I think the vehicles will be ready before the ability to charge them are. The other issue will be the grid capacity that needs to expand as well. One benefit to the lower priced EVs is they will most likely be smaller and less powerful so will travel much further on a kWh.

Utility companies would be stupid not to get into this game. They can offer to install infrastructure for apartment complexes with no initial cost to them. Charging more than residential electricity but less than public charging until it is paid off and then pocket the profit after. They could work with manufacturers so each EV has an ID (if it does not already have it) to control who can charge there. Once a working solution is implemented in one place, it will spread like wild fire. Before you know it places that don’t have EV charging will have problem renting even at discounted prices.

 

[Zoidz]

...
"Reiterated that the goal is to have overall market share of 10% of the entire new car market, which is expected to be selling only electric cars by the end of the decade."

1) RJ seriously thinks that the entire new car market will be entirely electric vehicles within the next 7.5 years?! That is crazy talk. I know other people have said this too, but there is no way in heck that is accurate. If he seriously thinks that and isn't just saying that for PR reasons, then I'm selling my stock right now. This man is not fit to run a company.

I don't think it says RJ *believes* it will be 100%, I read it more as a general statement of industry projections. Deloitte predicts BEV sales to be 81% in 2030, so either they are all crazy or they have some reasonable basis for these projections.

"Normal plant is currently running 30 hours a week. For the second half of the year, this is expected to ramp up dramatically due to better relationships with semiconductor suppliers.

3) The Normal plant is only running 30 hours a week??? Why? Did he give any reasoning? Are supplies/materials the only constraint? 30 hours is nothing and honestly embarrassing. As a shareholder, I am very disappointed in this number. What the heck are all the employees doing with the rest of their time? 30 hours a week, heck even 50 hours a week, is not sustainable. They are burning through cash at that rate.

The reason is right there - if they are ramping up the second half of the year due to better relationships with the semi suppliers, it clearly means they are running 30 hours a week due to supply constraint. It's not embarrasing, it's good business. I have been involved in dozens of startups like this. What are they doing the other 10 hours of the week?
- They might be working/getting paid only 30 hours a week.
- They might be doing 10 hours a week of training, cross job training, etc.
- They might be working 10 hours a week with the QC/QA department to see first hand where they are falling short during production, to improve their FTQ (First Time Quality)
- They might be working 10 hours a week in Process Improvement focus groups, identifying ways to make production faster, more efficient, etc.
- They might be working 10 hours a week in other departments (warehousing, vehicle shipping, etc.) to help out with labor shortages.
- They might be using the 10 hours a week to troubleshoot and fine tune processes - fix Zebra Stripe Paint process issues, improve Tonneau cover installation so they don't jam, etc.

I have seen ALL of these things take place in startup factories.

As a stockholder, and knowing that they are supply constrained, I'm GLAD they are running only 30 hours a week. As a stockholder, would you prefer that they run 40 hours a week producing the same number of vehicles that they could produce in 30 hours - run 25% less efficient? Oh heck, let's run 80 hours a week producing the same number of vehicles as a 30 hour week, why not?

 

[SASSquatch]

I think just size?

That would be my guess as the range goes down as the truck size goes up suggesting they may be using the same battery.

That EDV 900 looks like a streeeetch van.

 

[Marjen]

Only when they are extremely cold. It's easily avoidable if they are being used daily and plugged in all the time. The biggest problem is not being able to charge them at all if they are sub freezing, but they are fine once warmed up.

yeah just wondering. I have a Mach-e and my winter performance was bad enough this winter. My capacity dropped by 35-40%.

 

[SeaGeo]

My capacity dropped by 35-40%.

I doubt your capacity dropped that much, but your effective range may have. There's some reduction in energy storage when cold, but the vehicle also sucks a lot more energy to warm things up. Especially over a short trim because it's warming both the battery and the cabin.

 

[Guy]

I don't think it says RJ *believes* it will be 100%, I read it more as a general statement of industry projections. Deloitte predicts BEV sales to be 81% in 2030, so either they are all crazy or they have some reasonable basis for these projections.


The reason is right there - if they are ramping up the second half of the year due to better relationships with the semi suppliers, it clearly means they are running 30 hours a week due to supply constraint. It's not embarrasing, it's good business. I have been involved in dozens of startups like this. What are they doing the other 10 hours of the week?
- They might be working/getting paid only 30 hours a week.
- They might be doing 10 hours a week of training, cross job training, etc.
- They might be working 10 hours a week with the QC/QA department to see first hand where they are falling short during production, to improve their FTQ (First Time Quality)
- They might be working 10 hours a week in Process Improvement focus groups, identifying ways to make production faster, more efficient, etc.
- They might be working 10 hours a week in other departments (warehousing, vehicle shipping, etc.) to help out with labor shortages.
- They might be using the 10 hours a week to troubleshoot and fine tune processes - fix Zebra Stripe Paint process issues, improve Tonneau cover installation so they don't jam, etc.

I have seen ALL of these things take place in startup factories.

As a stockholder, and knowing that they are supply constrained, I'm GLAD they are running only 30 hours a week. As a stockholder, would you prefer that they run 40 hours a week producing the same number of vehicles that they could produce in 30 hours - run 25% less efficient? Oh heck, let's run 80 hours a week producing the same number of vehicles as a 30 hour week, why not?

You make some good points but it does not seem like the extra hours are spent much on QC given the number of issues with panel fit, windows etc. They should be utilizing this time for more QC checks since later this year they will have less time as the number of units per hour increases.

 

[hiimisaac]

You make some good points but it does not seem like the extra hours are spent much on QC given the number of issues with panel fit, windows etc. They should be utilizing this time for more QC checks since later this year they will have less time as the number of units per hour increases.

I don’t know. I read a thread on Reddit yesterday about how bad Tesla is. I think Rivian is better in almost every way currently. We’ll see how they scale.

 

[Guy]

I don’t know. I read a thread on Reddit yesterday about how bad Tesla is. I think Rivian is better in almost every way currently. We’ll see how they scale.

Being better than Tesla is a low bar. They should set their sights on proper premium companies (which they are competing against in the 70-100k range).

 

[hiimisaac]

Being better than Tesla is a low bar. They should set their sights on proper premium companies (which they are competing against in the 70-100k range).

Tesla is the bar to meet. They’re the newest car company selling equally priced EVs.
I can’t imagine anyone saying that Rivian should be meeting Audi or Porsche quality when they’ve been doing this for more than 70 years. That’s unrealistic.

 

[superdavePA]

I think they are being over optimistic. Every date so far for production since 2018 has been missed. I don’t see this being different.

I agree, that's just Rivian-speak...

..

 

[E.S.]

Tesla is the bar to meet. They’re the newest car company selling equally priced EVs.
I can’t imagine anyone saying that Rivian should be meeting Audi or Porsche quality when they’ve been doing this for more than 70 years. That’s unrealistic.

Eh, regarding Tesla, it's a "yes & no" scenario to me. Like you pointed out, they've become the definitive "EV company" to meet and (hopefully) surpass. But that bar isn't really that high.

Regarding meeting Audi and Porsche, I don't see it as being unrealistic, more like something akin to this: a 2nd place athlete trying to catch up to #1. Yes, it's a high bar that Audi/Porsche have a major long term advantage in, but it's a bar that, with what Rivian is charging for these vehicles, should be able to reach, even if it is after they iron out their production issues due too being to inexperienced in that field.

 

[Speedrye]

Tesla is the bar to meet. They’re the newest car company selling equally priced EVs.
I can’t imagine anyone saying that Rivian should be meeting Audi or Porsche quality when they’ve been doing this for more than 70 years. That’s unrealistic.

There are a lot of us cross-shopping Rivian against other brands, including ICE vehicles. If Rivian is only slightly above the Tesla bar by the time my order is up, I'm going to have to pass.

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