Info From RJ's Fireside Chat on June 2nd (w/ mention of LFP batteries)

[RivRev]

Thanks for sharing and taking notes!
I found these bullet points quite interesting.

• Reiterated that the goal is to have overall market share of 10% of the entire new car market, which is expected to be selling only electric cars by the end of the decade.
• R2 vehicles will be priced from $40k to $60k and is anticipated to begin production in Georgia in 2025.
• Very important to ramp up R2 volume with expansion to Europe and China in the future.
• Normal plant is currently running 30 hours a week. For the second half of the year, this is expected to ramp up dramatically due to better relationships with semiconductor suppliers.

My thoughts:
1) RJ seriously thinks that the entire new car market will be entirely electric vehicles within the next 7.5 years?! That is crazy talk. I know other people have said this too, but there is no way in heck that is accurate. If he seriously thinks that and isn't just saying that for PR reasons, then I'm selling my stock right now. This man is not fit to run a company.
2) This is the first time I've heard anything publicly and remotely definitive regarding the R2 vehicles. This is great intel that I've been wondering. I have been thinking about delaying my R1 purchase for a R2 model, but 2026 is too far out for me. And now I'm curious how different the R2 is going to be...it is roughly half the cost of the R1! Sounds like it may be very different. And R1s are going to be a class of their own in the future and known as over-built first gen beasts.
3) The Normal plant is only running 30 hours a week??? Why? Did he give any reasoning? Are supplies/materials the only constraint? 30 hours is nothing and honestly embarrassing. As a shareholder, I am very disappointed in this number. What the heck are all the employees doing with the rest of their time? 30 hours a week, heck even 50 hours a week, is not sustainable. They are burning through cash at that rate.

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[EVTrucking]

The Normal plant working 30 hr weeks makes sense. Best to pace (throttle) the line in a parts limited scenario. The silver lining to that information is that it only takes 30 hrs to achieve current production!

Clearly parts supply is not improving. They would be shouting from the roof tops if it had. The silver lining here is that they STILL think they can hit 15-16k R1s in 2022. This was not specifically said in the chat which supports what was
said in the Q12022 call.

IMHO Rivian is doing an admirable job considering the global mess.

No parts = No R1s (not in Rivian’s control)

The intense competition for the lucky 15-16k in 2022 continues!!!

 

[GoldensEVs]

Any news on when Max packs will begin to be produced?

 

[jollyroger]

No parts = No R1s (not in Rivian’s control)
The intense competition for the lucky 15-16k in 2022 continues!!!

You keep on using that word, I don't think it means what you think it means

 

[Max]

If LFPs are tougher and more heat resistant, does that mean less waste for battery cooling? Does it need less conditioning before DCFC charging? How does it do in winter in comparison?

R2 may have success if they can get it to market while demand for EVs are crazy. If big boys flood the market, it may be hard to compete.

 

[Atlrivian]

Any news on when Max packs will begin to be produced?

 

[Guy]

I don’t see how the dual Motor small battery vehicles ship next year when there will be well over 60k of quad motor vehicles to get through before they even start on the base models. Maybe they expect to make more than 60k next year.

 

[zipzag]

Not sure why anyone would doubt their interest in the smaller LFP packs. It's only slightly less than the Large, but nearly the same in daily range because you can charge to 100%. 260mi with ability to charge to 100% without concern is a powerful offering.

Plus LFP batteries will last a very long time, and are suitable for frequent V2H use.

The only reason for nickel based batteries are range, and possibly peak performance. But an LFP dual motor Rivian is stilla 5 second vehicles, which is still very fast.

LFP in delivery vehicles is the obvious choice.

 

[EVTrucking]

You keep on using that word, I don't think it means what you think it means

What word is that I don’t understand?

 

[Max]

I don’t see how the dual Motor small battery vehicles ship next year when there will be well over 60k of quad motor vehicles to get through before they even start on the base models. Maybe they expect to make more than 60k next year.

If they can get LFPs easier and sooner, they have to put them somewhere. If I recall correctly, they said 2024 for dual motor (it may not be fully tested yet) but they may put the LFPs in standard pack quad Explore and lower the specs and make a new name for them. I have a bad feeling they may pull something for Explore Large pack.

 

[Guy]

I cannot believe $40-60 in three years time. Inflation alone would easily turn $40k into $46k. I cannot see how you strip that much cost out when the base R1S with the same dual motor and battery pack will easily be more than the current $72.5k. Take away a foot of metal, the glass roof and a few other items (air suspension maybe)!does not save $30k. I expect a base price of $60k going upto $80k for the R2S.

 

[Guy]

If they can get LFPs easier and sooner, they have to put them somewhere. If I recall correctly, they said 2024 for dual motor (it may not be fully tested yet) but they may put the LFPs in standard pack quad Explore and lower the specs and make a new name for them. I have a bad feeling they may pull something for Explore Large pack.

I think they are being over optimistic. Every date so far for production since 2018 has been missed. I don’t see this being different.

 

[Dark-Fx]

1) RJ seriously thinks that the entire new car market will be entirely electric vehicles within the next 7.5 years?! That is crazy talk. I know other people have said this too, but there is no way in heck that is accurate. If he seriously thinks that and isn't just saying that for PR reasons, then I'm selling my stock right now. This man is not fit to run a company.

So many of my friends want to get EVs but aren't convinced they can make them work, or can't afford them right now. They are wrong on both parts, especially when you consider what the price of gas has been doing.

3) The Normal plant is only running 30 hours a week??? Why? Did he give any reasoning? Are supplies/materials the only constraint?

Gee, I don't know, it might have something to do with the chip/materials shortage that they said will limit them to significantly fewer vehicles than they are capable of producing this year.

 

[Max]

You keep on using that word, I don't think it means what you think it means

Something stinks about Rivian projections

 

[Max]

I cannot believe $40-60 in three years time. Inflation alone would easily turn $40k into $46k. I cannot see how you strip that much cost out when the base R1S with the same dual motor and battery pack will easily be more than the current $72.5k. Take away a foot of metal, the glass roof and a few other items (air suspension maybe)!does not save $30k. I expect a base price of $60k going upto $80k for the R2S.

GM is already making a 260 mile EV for $30K (Bolt). I have no doubt Koreans and VW are already gunning for sub $30K EVs

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