Rivian's Future

[stickyfingers]

My views aren’t clouded, they’re quite clear. My distaste is for the 1800s industrialist management style.
Leaders do not“rage fire” employees...

Case in point better.com.

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[crashmtb]

Case in point better.com.

I know someone who is in recruiting for a large credit union in the western US, they were actively scooping up the poor victims of that clown

 

[Coast2Coast]

Rivian won't be profitable until the Georgia plant is up and running at half-capacity - @200K vehicles per year - and, at that time, Normal should be running at full capacity or @200K vehicles per year. In short, Rivian won't be profitable until it's producing @400K vehicles per year, and that's 4-5 years down the road.

In the meantime, the stock price will have ups and downs. If Rivian sells a lot of commercial vans, to Amazon and others, that will help the stock price do better than simply selling retail vehicles, and we'll see how much fleet sales and management are contributing to Rivian's bottom line. We'll also have a much better idea about Rivian's software-as-a-service model, so that the correct multiplier to retail sales can be applied.

As said in #16 above, Rivian has a MIT engineer with a Ph.D. in "how to make cars" as CEO. This doesn't mean Rivian won't stumble along the way, but it should mean Rivian is better prepared in adapting to the challenges that are here and coming.

And what Rivian has accomplished in the last few years in product design, engineering, development and manufacturing is phenomenal both in terms of its vision and execution. No other auto maker comes close to competing in Rivian's chosen product categories of medium- to heavy-duty pickups, large SUVs and last mile commercial vans.

Rivian's future is not assured, however. The auto industry requires high capital investments and returns mild profits at best. At least this has been true historically. Will Rivian overturn history? Unlikely. But I expect Rivian to do better than the industry averages, and perhaps do much better than average with its unusual product mix and its vertically integrated, hardware and software product strategy.

 

[lefkonj]

They can look at what Tesla went through to figure out where the landmines are, so hopefully they do better. But it is about leadership and process, as of now we don't know.

 

[Crotchetyoldfart]

Great conversation overall. Not surprising to see the camps.

I've got all three hands up here.

OK, inbreeding aside (joke, I'm sorry, I couldn't resist) how many goals, promises, timeframes, deadlines has Rivian ever met?

Let's be real, it would be the height of temerity to say that Rivian is immune from most of the mistakes Tesla has made. They've already made one lollapalooza of one - overpromised. For a second, I will toss in their communication to their reservation holders. Even if Rivian only makes half of mistakes Tesla's has, the OP's original assertion is pretty accurate.

Many people are expecting Ford to have teething pains in producing the Lightning. If a company as experienced with design and manufacturing as Ford will, do you really think Rivian will avoid em?

Heck, I believe Rivian is a pretty good (not great) company and they've built a pretty good (not great) first product*. Maybe they will become great, who knows, I hope so, but I try to avoid the Kool-Aid.


* If anyone wants me to explain these two opinions, just ask.

 

[Trandall]

@Crotchetyoldfart... Yep better explain the "not great first product". I think it's exceptionally great but I'm admittedly a fanboy. Please don't state outdated design, they are literally first to market, (unless you consider the late 90's early 2000's sub 100 mile lead acid battery trucks of Ford and Chevy)

 

[godfodder0901]

Heck, I believe Rivian is a pretty good (not great) company and they've built a pretty good (not great) first product*. Maybe they will become great, who knows, I hope so, but I try to avoid the Kool-Aid.


* If anyone wants me to explain these two opinions, just ask.

Just curious to know if you have had the opportunity to see and drive one of these vehicles personally?

 

[SANZC02]

I'd be interested to see facts comparing Tesla and Rivian – all we've got is opinions and assertions.

… bungling of the IPO ….

Curious what you mean by this.

Largest IPO in the US in 2021 and 7th largest in US history that raised more than 12 billion dollars for the company.

Not sure how that could possibly be considered a bungled IPO.

 

[Crotchetyoldfart]

@Crotchetyoldfart... Yep better explain the "not great first product". I think it's exceptionally great but I'm admittedly a fanboy. Please don't state outdated design, they are literally first to market, (unless you consider the late 90's early 2000's sub 100 mile lead acid battery trucks of Ford and Chevy)

First to market doesn't make it "exceptionally great." "Innovative," "Creative" or "Groundbreaking," Yes. As for my opinion on misses to describe it as exceptional, here are a few off the top of my head:

Ford has better frunk design - access and drain
Ford has better and more appropriate external power delivery - 9+Kw
Choosing a base wheel that is a somewhat unique size
Lack of power lift tailgate or power open/close gear tunnel doors
Problems with electronic tonneau cover
Need to use hands on paint to open and close gear tunnel

Many client objections:
Lack of Apple CarPlay
Insufficient storage in the cabin
Reliance on touch screen for almost all functions
Lack of HUD
Location of interior door handles
Lack of A pillar grips
Electronic front vent directional control
No step for bed
Rear window does not open

YMMV

edit: can't leave out spare tire in/under the bed

 

[Crotchetyoldfart]

Just curious to know if you have had the opportunity to see and drive one of these vehicles personally?

Nope, but it's not because of my lack of trying. Rivian won't even provide me with an estimate of when they will bring a demo to my state.

I never took a trip on the Titanic or Hindenburg, or rode a penny farthing. They were all very innovative, but I'm pretty confident they all had a few design issues.

 

[SANZC02]

First to market doesn't make it "exceptionally great." "Innovative," "Creative" or "Groundbreaking," Yes. As for my opinion on misses to describe it as exceptional, here are a few off the top of my head:

Ford has better frunk design - access and drain
Ford has better external power delivery - 9+Kw
Choosing a base wheel that is a somewhat unique size
Lack of power lift tailgate/gear tunnel doors
Problems with electronic tonneau cover
Need to use hands on paint to open and close gear tunnel
Many Client objections:
Lack of Apple CarPlay
Insufficient storage in the cabin
Reliance on touch screen for almost all funtions
Lack of HUD
Location of interior door handles
Lack of A pillar grips
Electronic front vent directional control
No step for bed
Rear window does not open

YMMV

Yeah, come on it is not even certified or capable of flying….

 

[Stephe]

First to market doesn't make it "exceptionally great." "Innovative," "Creative" or "Groundbreaking," Yes. As for my opinion on misses to describe it as exceptional, here are a few off the top of my head:

Ford has better frunk design - access and drain
Ford has better and more appropriate external power delivery - 9+Kw
Choosing a base wheel that is a somewhat unique size
Lack of power lift tailgate or power open/close gear tunnel doors
Problems with electronic tonneau cover
Need to use hands on paint to open and close gear tunnel
Many client objections:
Lack of Apple CarPlay
Insufficient storage in the cabin
Reliance on touch screen for almost all funtions
Lack of HUD
Location of interior door handles
Lack of A pillar grips
Electronic front vent directional control
No step for bed
Rear window does not open

YMMV

+ ugly headlights…… I kid

 

[Crotchetyoldfart]

Yeah, come on it is even certified or capable of flying….

Yeah, as a pilot, that bugs me too!

 

[Trandall]

@Crotchetyoldfart, How dare you classify the Beloved R1T with the Hindenburg! JK, mostly.
Fair enough I asked so I won't argue. I will say that your name precedes you though.

 

[godfodder0901]

Nope, but it's not because of my lack of trying. Rivian won't even provide me with an estimate of when they will bring a demo to my state.

I never took a trip on the Titanic or Hindenburg, or rode a penny farthing. They were all very innovative, but I'm pretty confident they all had a few design issues.

I was just asking as a way to guage your expectations. I will be the first to admit that the R1T is far from perfect. But if you look at some of the most critically acclaimed vehicles in history, I'm sure you will find a long list of shortcomings. The truly great cars are the ones that can make you forget about all of them. I truly believe that once you get behind the wheel of your own, you'll be singing a different song...

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