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RIVIAN STOCK

E.S.

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That's barely 0.08% of Ford's shares. That's not "ouch" at all. So many others are making such a mountain out of this mole hill 🙄

JP Morgan's share sounds more impactful, but I don't recall how many shares overall they originally bought. If it's anything similar to what Ford did, that's another "didn't even scratch" the surface scenario.

The only one that really has my attention is both Amazon and Black Rock. If either sell their shares (and how many), that will concern me more than Ford dropping out completely.
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godfodder0901

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That's barely 0.08% of Ford's shares. That's not "ouch" at all. So many others are making such a mountain out of this mole hill 🙄

JP Morgan's share sounds more impactful, but I don't recall how many shares overall they originally bought. If it's anything similar to what Ford did, that's another "didn't even scratch" the surface scenario.

The only one that really has my attention is both Amazon and Black Rock. If either sell their shares (and how many), that will concern me more than Ford dropping out completely.
You forgot to multiply by 100. It's 7.8%.
 

moosehead

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^I‘m not worried about Ford. I’m worried about the potential of 23M RIVN shares pricing at circa $26 during a market swoon.

Sure, this is speculation based on market talk. It just aint good market talk.
 

MidnightRivian

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That's barely 0.08% of Ford's shares. That's not "ouch" at all. So many others are making such a mountain out of this mole hill 🙄

JP Morgan's share sounds more impactful, but I don't recall how many shares overall they originally bought. If it's anything similar to what Ford did, that's another "didn't even scratch" the surface scenario.

The only one that really has my attention is both Amazon and Black Rock. If either sell their shares (and how many), that will concern me more than Ford dropping out completely.
Ford owns 102 million RIVN shares and sold 8 million shares. That is 7.8% of their ownership stake not 0.08%.

Lets bring this stock down closer to $15 and start dollar cost averaging over the next 2 years of bear market we are about to experience.

I can see Rivian issuing more stock to expand / support operations.

Premiums are extremely juicy on this stock.

Pick up 100 bundles of shares and sell covered calls with far OTM puts as downside protection.

This week you would have bought shares at $30 and sold covered calls at $31.5 and buy far OTM puts at $25.

Enjoy the volatility and juicy premiums.
 
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guernsej

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Ford owns 102 million RIVN shares and sold 8 million shares. That is 7.8% of their ownership stake not 0.08%.

Lets bring this stock down closer to $15 and start dollar cost averaging over the next 2 years of bear market we are about to experience.

I can see Rivian issuing more stock to expand / support operations.

Premiums are extremely juicy on this stock.

Pick up 100 bundles of shares and sell covered calls with far OTM puts as downside protection.

This week you would have bought shares at $30 and sold covered calls at $31.5 and buy far OTM puts at $25.

Enjoy the volatility and juicy premiums.
Without checking the charts, I'm guessing that strategy is a money loser over the last few months and it only makes sense if you think Rivian is going to be stagnant at $30 for a while. The strikes you're using have pretty significant loss risk to grind out limited upside potential. If price moves hard one direction or the other, best case you're pocketing $1.50/share plus CC premium minus put premium and opportunity loss, worst case you lose $5/share minus CC premium plus put premium and opportunity gain. You'll also have to step your strikes down next month if and when prices keep dropping if you want to keep getting the same premium, further eroding your profit opportunity and steepening your loss risk.

Not that my strategy has been any better 😂. I've been wheeling RIVN since $50 and when it broke under $35 I stopped selling CC because the premium isn't worth the opportunity cost that far OTM. I switched to CCP to DCA into a larger position, and now I get to hold these bags until the correction runs out of steam!
 

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You forgot to multiply by 100. It's 7.8%.
Ford owns 102 million RIVN shares and sold 8 million shares. That is 7.8% of their ownership stake not 0.08%.
Yep, you both are correct, it's 7.8%, which in the grand scheme of things is still small percentage. If it was something like 20% or greater, then I'd worry (not really. It's Ford, they have their own issues to worry about. If this was Amazon or Blackrock and they were selling off 10% or greater, THEN I'll worry). Ford's current stock has dropped from $25 to $14 (and despite them blaming Rivian, it's mostly Ford's fault).
 

kurtlikevonnegut

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Yep, you both are correct, it's 7.8%, which in the grand scheme of things is still small percentage. If it was something like 20% or greater, then I'd worry (not really. It's Ford, they have their own issues to worry about. If this was Amazon or Blackrock and they were selling off 10% or greater, THEN I'll worry). Ford's current stock has dropped from $25 to $14 (and despite them blaming Rivian, it's mostly Ford's fault).
I actually wonder if Amazon and/or Blackrock will see this as an opportunity to increase their stake.

Amazon could easily absorb both Ford's and the mystery entity's shares if they wanted to. That would certainly be an interesting development.
 

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Without checking the charts, I'm guessing that strategy is a money loser over the last few months and it only makes sense if you think Rivian is going to be stagnant at $30 for a while. The strikes you're using have pretty significant loss risk to grind out limited upside potential. If price moves hard one direction or the other, best case you're pocketing $1.50/share plus CC premium minus put premium and opportunity loss, worst case you lose $5/share minus CC premium plus put premium and opportunity gain. You'll also have to step your strikes down next month if and when prices keep dropping if you want to keep getting the same premium, further eroding your profit opportunity and steepening your loss risk.

Not that my strategy has been any better 😂. I've been wheeling RIVN since $50 and when it broke under $35 I stopped selling CC because the premium isn't worth the opportunity cost that far OTM. I switched to CCP to DCA into a larger position, and now I get to hold these bags until the correction runs out of steam!
This is a fresh strategy to use if you get in at the current $30 or lower price point.

Selling calls and buying puts is a bearish strategy given the macro environment and RIVN pain points.

One can pick up twice the number of puts compared to calls they sell.

Puts will be at -.15 delta and calls will be around .4 delta.
 

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This is a fresh strategy to use if you get in at the current $30 or lower price point.

Selling calls and buying puts is a bearish strategy given the macro environment and RIVN pain points.

One can pick up twice the number of puts compared to calls they sell.

Puts will be at -.15 delta and calls will be around .4 delta.
Yeah but you're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. 17% OTM puts on $30 shares provides catastrophic protection while still allowing for some pretty steep losses. Assuming you're playing monthlies you're risking all that for what, max 10-15% gains, in a correcting market with shares almost certainly headed further south, and no long term upside because of the CC?

How long have you been trading options?
 

MidnightRivian

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Yeah but you're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. 17% OTM puts on $30 shares provides catastrophic protection while still allowing for some pretty steep losses. Assuming you're playing monthlies you're risking all that for what, max 10-15% gains, in a correcting market with shares almost certainly headed further south, and no long term upside because of the CC?

How long have you been trading options?
Weeklies. Bearish short term. Sell calls and buy puts.

You can buy leaps if you want upside exposure.

3 years options trading.
 

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Amazon could easily absorb both Ford's and the mystery entity's shares if they wanted to. That would certainly be an interesting development.
I’ve wondered if Amazon will try to buy a large part of Ford’s shares. Amazon can control Rivian once RJ’s Class B shares automatically convert to Class A shares on November 10, 2026.
 

guernsej

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Weeklies. Bearish short term. Sell calls and buy puts.

You can buy leaps if you want upside exposure.

3 years options trading.
I don't think many people would advocate a collar on weeklies with skewed downside spread in a steadily declining market, but I've been wrong before.

Now, a GREAT strategy for this kind of market is naked calls and long puts. Of course, that's also a great way to lose everything and more when things go tits up hahaha, 10 of 10 would not recommend.
 
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MidnightRivian

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RIVN is down to $23.86 pre-market.

Downside protection at $23-$25 was a smart move.

Enjoy dollar cost averaging your positions.

Sell covered puts to get your shares even cheaper.
 

kurtlikevonnegut

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RIVN is down to $23.86 pre-market.

Downside protection at $23-$25 was a smart move.

Enjoy dollar cost averaging your positions.

Sell covered puts to get your shares even cheaper.
I've got buy limit orders in at $20 to lower my cost average in both my standard brokerage account as well as a larger order in my Roth.
 

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Good play. Lower that cost basis. I suspect when Rivian reports earnings in a few days, there will be another good buying point.

I feel bad for everyone who bought in at IPO prices, but now is the time to lower the basis or buy in at a more realistic valuation and then hold for a while if you don't mind some volatility. $15-20 is where I'm ideally looking to get in and then hold for a while.
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