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Rhidan

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What I'm missing is a voice that sets the tone, that creates a vision, that mobilizes and focuses resources on what needs to happen to make transportation better, cleaner, more sustainable. Yes, that's asking for a lot, but I hope and have a sneaky suspicion Rivian and RJ are up to the task.
This is leadership we should expect from the public sector, not a single private company. In the U.S., there is potential for a huge federal investment in green transportation infrastructure in 2021, including electric vehicles and charging infrastructure. (There's also a good chance the U.S. Senate blocks this investment). A private company BEV does not set the big picture tone. They lead by selling compelling vehicles that the public wants to buy, the public can afford, and are more sustainable. You're asking too much if you want a car company who hasn't sold a car to carry the mantle on sustainable transport. For example, BEVs will be pointless if the electric grid is still powered by coal. Maybe a coalition of BEV manufactures like Zeta can provide leadership, but not a single company.

I do think Rivian has an ambitious vision to make electric vehicles people want to buy (SUVs and Trucks). They have to spend $3+ billion before they can even sell their first product. I also think Rivian has already been more disruptive in the market than it gets credit. The Model 3 is the best selling sedan and Ford and GM couldn't care less. The legacy OEMs make no money on sedans and are discontinuing the Fusion, Impala, etc. Rivian threatens the bottom line of the legacy OEMs more by offering electric trucks and SUVs. The Cybertruck, and its $100 pre-order, even appears to me to be more of a reaction than a real electric truck that people will buy. Rivian is not making the most sustainable or efficient BEV but hoping to convert to electric the cars people want to buy.

The next move is Rivian's third and fourth vehicle. These are already in the works, but I doubt Rivian will make any real announcements before the R1T and R1S are delivered. They don't want to cannibalize their own sales. RJ has said the R1T/R1S are the company's halo products. If the R1T/R1S are successful, can they bring a more affordable vehicle to the market?
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azbill

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For example, BEVs will be pointless if the electric grid is still powered by coal.
Actually there are very few coal plants left in the US. At the end of 2019, there were a total of 10,346 power plants in the US, of which only 241 were coal (2.3%). Many of them close each year.
 

Rhidan

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Actually there are very few coal plants left in the US. At the end of 2019, there were a total of 10,346 power plants in the US, of which only 241 were coal (2.3%). Many of them close each year.
Colorado still makes approximately 50% of its electricity from coal, although that number is falling fast. The larger point was that BEVs are not going to solve the problem independently. You need change beyond BEVs.
 

Whmorken

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This is leadership we should expect from the public sector, not a single private company. In the U.S., there is potential for a huge federal investment in green transportation infrastructure in 2021, including electric vehicles and charging infrastructure. (There's also a good chance the U.S. Senate blocks this investment). A private company BEV does not set the big picture tone. They lead by selling compelling vehicles that the public wants to buy, the public can afford, and are more sustainable. You're asking too much if you want a car company who hasn't sold a car to carry the mantle on sustainable transport. For example, BEVs will be pointless if the electric grid is still powered by coal. Maybe a coalition of BEV manufactures like Zeta can provide leadership, but not a single company.

I do think Rivian has an ambitious vision to make electric vehicles people want to buy (SUVs and Trucks). They have to spend $3+ billion before they can even sell their first product. I also think Rivian has already been more disruptive in the market than it gets credit. The Model 3 is the best selling sedan and Ford and GM couldn't care less. The legacy OEMs make no money on sedans and are discontinuing the Fusion, Impala, etc. Rivian threatens the bottom line of the legacy OEMs more by offering electric trucks and SUVs. The Cybertruck, and its $100 pre-order, even appears to me to be more of a reaction than a real electric truck that people will buy. Rivian is not making the most sustainable or efficient BEV but hoping to convert to electric the cars people want to buy.

The next move is Rivian's third and fourth vehicle. These are already in the works, but I doubt Rivian will make any real announcements before the R1T and R1S are delivered. They don't want to cannibalize their own sales. RJ has said the R1T/R1S are the company's halo products. If the R1T/R1S are successful, can they bring a more affordable vehicle to the market?
Truck and SUV sales dominate, True. Rivian pioneers with tough off-road capability for these segments but does this translate into something new for highway driving where most people travel? That is not clear to me. Rivian excites me because it combines the best of what Tesla does with a go anywhere any time vehicle but how much demand will there be for this versatility?
 

Gshenderson

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I think the challenge we have with “Rivian changing the world” is their marketing. They are marketing a truck and SUV to an audience that is not necessarily the current market of those vehicles. They are not really marketing to Joe Redneck Texas or Jack The Hunter. They are marketing to the glamping, mountain biking, tree hugger crowd. I don’t say that to be offensive to any group, nor do I disagree with Rivian’s marketing strategy as it relates to being successful selling their trucks. I’m just saying that this approach is NOT going to put much of a dent in Ford, Chevy or Dodge’s market share in the truck market. It’s a completely different demographic they are marketing to.

I align more to the Joe Redneck crowd, and I can tell you without doubt that other forums I follow for hunting and farming all make big fun about EV trucks. They do not take them seriously.
 

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skyote

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It worked on this Joe Redneck Texas!
 

Mjhirsch78

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Joe Redneck tends to stick with what has worked for a long time. EV trucks will be a slow sell to them and likely take upwards of a decade. They want to fix it and mod it themselves in many cases. This will be a large hurdle for EVs to get past.
 

Whmorken

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Joe Redneck tends to stick with what has worked for a long time. EV trucks will be a slow sell to them and likely take upwards of a decade. They want to fix it and mod it themselves in many cases. This will be a large hurdle for EVs to get past.
Well said, and true for R1T, not true for Cybertruck. There are good reasons: Cybertruck is being built in Texas, is far tougher than any other truck, is huge, is priced low, has a wild design, and is one reason why Elon is moving to Austin. This is confrontation time for ICE full sized trucks and they will begin to lose market share within three to four years at most. I suspect the market may shift even faster — two to three years from launch. I hope to be driving both vehicles shortly.... This is an exciting time!
 

jjwolf120

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EV trucks will be a slow sell to them and likely take upwards of a decade. They want to fix it and mod it themselves in many cases. This will be a large hurdle for EVs to get past.
This remains to be seen. As electric cars become more common, more people will get a chance to drive them and they might change their minds about electric cars/trucks.
 

skyote

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This remains to be seen. As electric cars become more common, more people will get a chance to drive them and they might change their minds about electric cars/trucks.
Yep, riding in a couple Tesla S opened my eyes to electric performance & made me keep an eye on viable truck & SUV options in the space. I had a hard eye on Bollinger until Rivian came along.

As a traditional ICE gearhead, I think the performance, specs, and advantages of EVs will appeal to anyone that's logical...people just need 1) exposure & 2) education. I believe both will happen in the next few years.
 

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Coast2Coast

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Whether it's Joe Redneck, Lucy Luxury or Mr/Mrs Average Consumer, the key elements for BEV success are the same, and there's just three: 1) cost, largely driven by battery costs; 2) range or energy density; and, 3) infrastructure, including re-fueling, service and warranty.

The elements can be combined in many different ways in terms of vehicle sizes, configurations and models, but once all three are available affordably, reliably and with quality, ICE vehicles will be sooo last century. Rivian's genius is being first to market with the most popular vehicle models, pickups and SUVs, and coming to market when re-fueling issues are being minimized. A transition from an early adopter to an early majority market may come quickly, within 2-3 years.

Are there downsides in Rivian's position? Most certainly.

First, Rivians are relatively expensive. That's not saying they're not a good value, but there aren't so many people who can afford $70K+ vehicles. That's double the average cost of a new vehicle sold in N. America. Second, battery technologies are advancing rapidly and in such conditions being first to market has downsides. It's difficult to build competitive advantages when key technologies are rapidly advancing. Fast followers almost always win because they don't incur the costs and rigidities of first movers.

Finally and most importantly is the vision thing, referenced earlier. Where does Rivian want to be in 3-5 years? That question has many parts. First, in which markets with what sorts of vehicles? Second, with which battery technologies? Third, producing at what volumes? And, fourth, providing what sorts of services in terms of OTAs, infotainment, safety, service and warranty?

That's really a single bundle of issues wrapped up in one question: whither Rivian?
 

Lmirafuente

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It worked on this Joe Redneck Texas!
What is funny about hunters, I think somewhere in this forum last year someone said the rivian would be good for hunting pigs because it is quiet and can sneak up on wild animals versus an ICE vehicle. Sooo...

as soon as real life stories start popping up, the rush to the Rivian, cybertruck, electric F150’s, hummer, this will be fast

glad To be part of the first wave with this forum!

I am looking forward to reading and making some storie With you all!
 

Whmorken

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What is funny about hunters, I think somewhere in this forum last year someone said the rivian would be good for hunting pigs because it is quiet and can sneak up on wild animals versus an ICE vehicle. Sooo...

as soon as real life stories start popping up, the rush to the Rivian, cybertruck, electric F150’s, hummer, this will be fast

glad To be part of the first wave with this forum!

I am looking forward to reading and making some storie With you all!
The shift toward the BEV with varieties and degrees of automatic driving will likely be “fast” as noted, for complex reasons with many factors that are likely to converge in space and time, here and now. This is a world wide phenomenon too, cat out of the bag, no going back, reminding me of how the clipper ships disappeared in a brief moment. Driving first a 3, then a performance X, crushes all doubt on this question for me. Go Rivian!
 

Gshenderson

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Whether it's Joe Redneck, Lucy Luxury or Mr/Mrs Average Consumer, the key elements for BEV success are the same, and there's just three: 1) cost, largely driven by battery costs; 2) range or energy density; and, 3) infrastructure, including re-fueling, service and warranty.

The elements can be combined in many different ways in terms of vehicle sizes, configurations and models, but once all three are available affordably, reliably and with quality, ICE vehicles will be sooo last century. Rivian's genius is being first to market with the most popular vehicle models, pickups and SUVs, and coming to market when re-fueling issues are being minimized. A transition from an early adopter to an early majority market may come quickly, within 2-3 years.

Are there downsides in Rivian's position? Most certainly.

First, Rivians are relatively expensive. That's not saying they're not a good value, but there aren't so many people who can afford $70K+ vehicles. That's double the average cost of a new vehicle sold in N. America. Second, battery technologies are advancing rapidly and in such conditions being first to market has downsides. It's difficult to build competitive advantages when key technologies are rapidly advancing. Fast followers almost always win because they don't incur the costs and rigidities of first movers.

Finally and most importantly is the vision thing, referenced earlier. Where does Rivian want to be in 3-5 years? That question has many parts. First, in which markets with what sorts of vehicles? Second, with which battery technologies? Third, producing at what volumes? And, fourth, providing what sorts of services in terms of OTAs, infotainment, safety, service and warranty?

That's really a single bundle of issues wrapped up in one question: whither Rivian?
Agree with your points, but people also choose their vehicle based on the image they want to project. And manufacturers spend a lot of money marketing to those images. It’s pretty obvious who Rivian is marketing to, and it’s not Joe Redneck. So you could solve the cost, energy density and infrastructure concerns, but if the truck has an imagine that doesn’t fit with a certain demographic, they won’t buy it.
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