Rival Tesla Model X to end production

[drivetorun]

Definitely a bittersweet end. I put a reservation in for the Model S in September 2012 and took delivery at the factory in March 2013. Still have it nearly 13 years later (and with a whopping 70k miles). Only in the past year have I started to have to pay out of pocket for some issues (one door handle failed, and I did the MCU upgrade due to the screen delamination issue).

They really knocked it out of the park on their first legitimate attempt, both from a vehicle and charging network standpoint. I'll probably keep it around until the HV battery dies, and until then, it's a nice reminder of the "good old days" at Tesla (hard to believe that the company being on the verge of bankruptcy is now what could be considered the good days...).

Hopefully in 11 more years Rivian is still around and releasing Gen 4 or 5 of the R1S...

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[Time2Roll]

If the world is going autonomous it still needs 3 row SUVs...

I don't have a doom-and-gloom view of Tesla, however I think this move is revealing and quite embarrassing. Despite its size and market cap, Tesla is unable to execute on multiple products simultaneously. Even mid-size car brands have 20+ models, all being updated and refreshed regularly. Tesla is down to 3 (arguably 2), which it updates iteratively and never simultaneously.

This is an over-leveraged product portfolio, and possibly organizational architecture. Tesla needs to do the work to operate in parallel. That's why we don't have a roadster, or a semi (among other reasons) or a R1S competitor.

It's almost like they have one big bottleneck which all decisions must go through and prevent the company from scaling.

Yup. Tesla is now grown up to be like the other car companies.

 

[Zoidz]

Don't underestimate the potential for Optimus to propel the company forward. He transformed the EV market in amazing ways. If he can crack that nut for humanoid robots - an acceptable level of useful functionality and autonomy at a competitive price for mundane manufacturing and service work - the market is much larger than the EV market. Risky bet, but I would not pronounce Telsa dead at this point.

 

[vigorousRival]

People win the lottery some times too! But they don’t usually gamble the entire future of a major company on those odds.

 

[Rade]

IMHO... I have no issues with robotic arms handling processes like repetitive assembly and welding, but I find myself taking exception to this... drooling that the automotive executives (like Elon) seem to have about humanoid robots taking over most other assembly line tasks. All I've heard (especially according to the Hyundai group) is that "A $200k robot can work around the clock without breaks!" They are looking to incorporate them in European and American factories very soon. Here in the US, they are looking at restructuring their factories in "Right to Work" (Red) states where the UAW has little footprint.

Interesting times we are entering into.

 

[Thedude]

IMHO... I have no issues with robotic arms handling processes like repetitive assembly and welding, but I find myself taking exception to this... drooling that the automotive executives (like Elon) seem to have about humanoid robots taking over most other assembly line tasks. All I've heard (especially according to the Hyundai group) is that "A $200k robot can work around the clock without breaks!" They are looking to incorporate them in European and American factories very soon. Here in the US, they are looking at restructuring their factories in "Right to Work" (Red) states where the UAW has little footprint.

Interesting times we are entering into.

They’re in the business of selling vehicles to make money not the business of providing people jobs. It makes complete sense to try to automate as much as possible.

 

[lefkonj]

It makes total sense for Tesla to stop production of these vehicles as they haven't been significantly changed in years, and the competition is just too intense for this type of stagnation. With sales dropping globally for the brand they need to sure up as much profits as possible. I don't see a strong vehicle production future for them as the Model 3 and Y will continue to see sales decline and competition increase.

Personally I am thrilled to watch Musk struggle but I feel bad for the employees that will be impacted.

 

[Ecupip]

I'll say the S is Tesla's best-looking vehicle. Sad to see it go.

 

[Druidspirit]

They’re in the business of selling vehicles to make money not the business of providing people jobs. It makes complete sense to try to automate as much as possible.

That's a doubled edged sword. If people don't have jobs, they won't be buying vehicles. Car manufacturers aren't the only ones trying to reduce work force with automation. At some point very few will have jobs to be able to buy the products they are trying to maximize profits on.

 

[Jdcorbitt3]

Honda lost money on every 1st gen NSX, but it was a flagship car. They sold a lot of other cars as a result. I would think many people buying a Model 3, as their income grew would buy an S.
I test drove the Lucid Gravity, and it feels like an X, but with more room and better fit and finish.

 

[Budman]

Don't underestimate the potential for Optimus to propel the company forward. He transformed the EV market in amazing ways. If he can crack that nut for humanoid robots - an acceptable level of useful functionality and autonomy at a competitive price for mundane manufacturing and service work - the market is much larger than the EV market. Risky bet, but I would not pronounce Telsa dead at this point.

Robots for mundane manufacturing tasks at competitive prices have been around for a very long time. I'm struggling to understand the appeal of an overly complex robot in a humanoid form with over 100 degrees of freedom when a far simpler and less expensive alternative exists????

If you have mundane tasks in a factory you want a robot you set up once and then let it work for months or years. Why does it need to walk around???????? If you do need to move parts in a factory you use a conveyer belt or trolly that can move 1000's of parts per minute. Not an expensive 100 degree of freedom slow walking humanoid carrying a couple parts..

 

[dduffey]

Tesla is going to try and sell "just buy our robot and it will appreciate 100s of thousands of dollars" as they claimed Model 3 owners would realize in 2019... and never came to fruition (and never will).

"Amazing Abundance" and "Universal High income?"... where is the plan for that?

Moving FSD (and lane keep) to a subscription model is just the opposite of that. "Hey look, we developed something amazing that runs in car (by design!) and frankly you could just do yourself for free, but we will now charge you, every month forever!"

If they have already intentionally moved to a subscription only model for vehicle automation, then of course they will do the same with Optimus.

I bought FSD in 2018 ... Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

Will be interesting to see how many people fall for it, realize Optimus 1 doesn't live up to expectations and buy Optimus 2/3 under a subscription model.

 

[Druidspirit]

A good use case for Optimus would be farming. Unfortunately, farmers wouldn't have the money to purchase expensive robots to do the back breaking parts. Specially since the primary source of workers are migrants.

 

[supernu8]

Less options for EVs in the US is not a good thing, so sad to see this. I supposed Lucid may benefit from cross shoppers of the S?

As for robots in manufacturing- Its more cost effective to design the process to be fully automated than it would be to just "simply" drop in a humanoid robot in an established manufacturing line and try to get it to do what a human does.
I'd 100% take specialized automation hardware over humanoid if i wanted to keep a manufacturing floor running 24/7 without humans.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Don't underestimate the potential for Optimus to propel the company forward. He transformed the EV market in amazing ways. If he can crack that nut for humanoid robots - an acceptable level of useful functionality and autonomy at a competitive price for mundane manufacturing and service work - the market is much larger than the EV market. Risky bet, but I would not pronounce Telsa dead at this point.

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what Elon actually did for EVs. The ideas behind Tesla's vehicles were already there. Other people already had the plan, and all of Elon's additions to the lines have been problematic. What Elon does well is corporate organization. He took an ineffective entity and streamlined it to the point it could grow and make money. That's absolutely a skill, and it was an important part of Tesla's story.

However, Elon is NOT a founder in the way he proclaimed. If you want to see what a vehicle looks like that Elon is majorly responsible for, look at the CT. That monstrosity is an abysmal failure, and Tesla is hemorrhaging money because it designed a line with 250K capacity and demand of 20K, which declines year over year. The Cybertruck is not useful enough as a truck and will never be financially successful.

Elon believed his own press about being a genius innovator and stopped listening to the talent. His strength was in knowing how to utilize smart people and provide them with an environment to create innovative products. Elon stopped doing that and instead replaced the talent with his ideas. This is resulting in Tesla's decisions going downhill.

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