R1S Delivery Update Email (June 30, 2022)

[Guy]

So some people will have waited 4.5 years between ordering and delivery. Others wait 4.5 weeks (Kyle Connor). Just wait let’s see if Alyssa of OutofSpec fame gets a quick delivery to replace her eTron.

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[Tsunami]

Spoke with CS today as I could not reach my Guide. Here is what I was told:
1) if you received an email update with a window further out in 2022 or 23, then that is the only update available at this time.
2) Rivian only began building R1S's for early deposit holders (2018/19) in May. Production delays caused delivery delays.
3) No further delivery window updates are likely until later this year (my window is Oct-Dec 2022).
4) Delivery windows of 3 months are atypical and likely going forward windows will be in 6 month increments.

 

[R1Sky Business]

Dec 2018 pre-order for an LE R1S. Was given Jul-Sept originally. But today, that was updated to First Half of 2023. So I will be waiting between 4 and 4.5 years from putting the pre-order down to delivery. Assuming they even make that 1H 2023 window. Which just seems vague. I'd honestly feel more confident in the window if they had said "Jan-Jun 2023". That seems more concrete than "First half of 2023". I realize they are the same....but feels like a placeholder...

Of course - this is because I am in Canada...

Unreal

 

[BigSkies]

As much as I want Rivian to succeed (I want my R1S, and I own a few shares), I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of it happening. It's an amazing car, but for them to succeed, they probably need to be making 500-600k vehicles a year to hit cash-flow break even.

They have enough cash to last until about 2025.

So I need to believe that in the next 2.5 years, they can:
1. Maximize production of their current factory at about 150K annual vehicles
2. Build all of the versions of the R1's they've promised (dual motor, max pack, small pack, etc) without it slowing production.
3. Design, test, and launch a new R2 vehicle (or two).
4. Build a new factory at roughly the price they expected to pay for it 12-24 months ago. Ramp this factory to a run-rate of roughly 400,000 vehicles a year.
5. Sustain demand for high-priced EV's in a recessionary environment with higher interest rates than we've seen in a generation.

Given their inability to hit ANY deadlines or milestones to-date, I'm not feeling optimistic about their ability to do all of the above within a few years.

 

[Attesan997]

They already cut two motors to get closer to profitability, it looks like two of the wheels may be on the chopping block as well. Kidding aside I am expecting a lot of surprises with the Explore. By the time they get to it (if they ever do), balance sheet will look so bad that they will be making compromises that they are not considering right now or they have already made those compromises and will likely tell us a few days before delivery in 2025. email goes something like this:

Due to to persistent supply chain issues and inflation caused by three year war with China and Russia, we will prioritize the new variant of R1S Explore equipped with a pedal and 500 watt motor instead of original quad and a mini battery pack to help save the planet.

Stay adventurous (unless you have better options)

I'm confused as to what the plan is with the Explore trim. It doesn't appear as if they'll even get to Explore R1Ts this year, the 15k or whatever the estimated production appears to mostly be Launch/Adventure R1Ts with a handful of R1Ss thrown in based on this delay email. They can't just send out an email to say sorry we're not producing Explore trims anymore... can they?

 

[Guy]

I disagree with this. people are just not hearing or believing what they have been saying but in no way have they downplayed the supply chain issues.

The issue is most people think they are just using it as an excuse instead of looking around at all other vehicle manufacturers as well as other industries and realize we are in uncharted waters with how bad the supply chain is right now.

I understand where you are coming from but Rivian and designed the vehicles before COVID and were planning on manufacture in summer 2020 so just after COVID hit. Two years later they are making a few vehicles (operating the small plant at around 20% capacity by end of year).
Whereas other companies have designed and started selling (or soon will be) new vehicles. Rivian is just slow, much like the 3+ years to build a factory in Georgia (late 2021 to end of 2024 if not later). They do some things well but a sense of urgency is not one of them.

 

[Guy]

I'm confused as to what the plan is with the Explore trim. It doesn't appear as if they'll even get to Explore R1Ts this year, the 15k or whatever the estimated production appears to mostly be Launch/Adventure R1Ts with a handful of R1Ss thrown in based on this delay email. They can't just send out an email to say sorry we're not producing Explore trims anymore... can they?

The Explore trim is going to be significantly delayed as that was starting in 2023 and now there are thousands of LE and Adventure models moved to that date. 2024 is realistic at this point.

 

[Attesan997]

As much as I want Rivian to succeed (I want my R1S, and I own a few shares), I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of it happening. It's an amazing car, but for them to succeed, they probably need to be making 500-600k vehicles a year to hit cash-flow break even.

They have enough cash to last until about 2025.

So I need to believe that in the next 2.5 years, they can:
1. Maximize production of their current factory at about 150K annual vehicles
2. Build all of the versions of the R1's they've promised (dual motor, max pack, small pack, etc) without it slowing production.
3. Design, test, and launch a new R2 vehicle (or two).
4. Build a new factory at roughly the price they expected to pay for it 12-24 months ago. Ramp this factory to a run-rate of roughly 400,000 vehicles a year.
5. Sustain demand for high-priced EV's in a recessionary environment with higher interest rates than we've seen in a generation.

Given their inability to hit ANY deadlines or milestones to-date, I'm not feeling optimistic about their ability to do all of the above within a few years.

The GA factory doesn't make a whole lot of sense unless 2023 turns into a massive year of 75-100k vehicles or something several times higher than this year churning out of Normal. If not there will be one location under construction while the other idles intermittently. That massive cash stockpile won't last long and Rivian's a bit away from profitability.

 

[Attesan997]

The Explore trim is going to be significantly delayed as that was starting in 2023 and now there are thousands of LE and Adventure models moved to that date. 2024 is realistic at this point.

I follow you but unless something changes dramatically they still aren't likley to get all reservations out in 2024. Typing 2025 seems absurd but at their current pace they may not really make a dent into Launch/Adventure until late 2024. Not doom and gloom or anything I hope Rivian succeeds, they have a great product for a group that hasn't produced a vehicle before.

 

[noev4me]

This is a huge bummer, I feel for everyone who got this window. I was one of the lucky(?) few who got my update earlier this month for an Aug - Sept 2022 delivery, but looking at some of your preorder dates there isn't much at all separating me from the rest of you - in fact many of you have earlier preorder dates. Doesn't make sense, which is unfortunately becoming par for the course for all things Rivian.

Was there even an Oct - Dec 2022 window? Is it just Aug - Sept for R1Ss this year?

Consider yourself lucky and keep us updated!

 

[IlliniRivian]

At current burn rate, Rivian will need to raise real money long before the GA plant produces a vehicle. They need to find a way to churn out more, wait on GA or issue lots more shares. It’s not going to be pretty.

 

[noev4me]

Dec 2018 pre-order for an LE R1S. Was given Jul-Sept originally. But today, that was updated to First Half of 2023. So I will be waiting between 4 and 4.5 years from putting the pre-order down to delivery. Assuming they even make that 1H 2023 window. Which just seems vague. I'd honestly feel more confident in the window if they had said "Jan-Jun 2023". That seems more concrete than "First half of 2023". I realize they are the same....but feels like a placeholder...

Of course - this is because I am in Canada...

I am in So Cal and was pushed as well, so don't blame Canada solely for your delay!

 

[echerod]

As much as I want Rivian to succeed (I want my R1S, and I own a few shares), I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of it happening. It's an amazing car, but for them to succeed, they probably need to be making 500-600k vehicles a year to hit cash-flow break even.

They have enough cash to last until about 2025.

So I need to believe that in the next 2.5 years, they can:
1. Maximize production of their current factory at about 150K annual vehicles
2. Build all of the versions of the R1's they've promised (dual motor, max pack, small pack, etc) without it slowing production.
3. Design, test, and launch a new R2 vehicle (or two).
4. Build a new factory at roughly the price they expected to pay for it 12-24 months ago. Ramp this factory to a run-rate of roughly 400,000 vehicles a year.
5. Sustain demand for high-priced EV's in a recessionary environment with higher interest rates than we've seen in a generation.

Given their inability to hit ANY deadlines or milestones to-date, I'm not feeling optimistic about their ability to do all of the above within a few years.

It’s certainly going to be very hard for them to deliver on all their promises, but that was always to be expected. It’s VERY hard to start up any business, let alone a car company. However, the fact that they’ve made it to this point says a lot, so I still think there’s a fair chance that they’ll succeed. I’m keeping my shares for sure.

 

[DJG]

have you even driven them? they actually drive nice, at least the EV6 does.

I was referring to the future models that are more comparable to Rivian, at least in vehicle type/size, which no one has driven. But I don't need to, they won't be comparable, because they are not meant to be. If you want a perfectly fine, no excitement (good and bad), mostly road limited, relatively value priced option, I fully expect them to be fantastic options for people (and I might even consider one). They'll have to be careful in pricing them, or risk cannibalizing their golden goose that is the Telluride/Palisade. There will be little reason for a rational person to buy one of those when the electric version is available (other than availability).

They just won't be a Rivian, and that's ok. That's not the market they are targeting. It wouldn't make any sense to me for someone that wants a Rivian, to settle for a Kia/Hyundai because it will reduce a rare charging stop by a few minutes. There may be people now buying the quad motor performance that don't need it, but that's just a short term irregularity due to lack of options. The presumption that Rivian needs to match their charging speeds (which they very well may still end up doing), assumes that all else is equal, which it certainly is not.

 

[dleewla]

I was referring to the future models that are more comparable to Rivian, at least in vehicle type/size, which no one has driven. But I don't need to, they won't be comparable, because they are not meant to be. If you want a perfectly fine, no excitement (good and bad), mostly road limited, relatively value priced option, I fully expect them to be fantastic options for people (and I might even consider one). They'll have to be careful in pricing them, or risk cannibalizing their golden goose that is the Telluride/Palisade. There will be little reason for a rational person to buy one of those when the electric version is available (other than availability).

They just won't be a Rivian, and that's ok. That's not the market they are targeting. It wouldn't make any sense to me for someone that wants a Rivian, to settle for a Kia/Hyundai because it will reduce a rare charging stop by a few minutes. There may be people now buying the quad motor performance that don't need it, but that's just a short term irregularity due to lack of options. The presumption that Rivian needs to match their charging speeds (which they very well may still end up doing), assumes that all else is equal, which it certainly is not.

makes sense

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