Oct-Dec 2022 Deliveries - Delayed?

[AllInev]

A thread for those of us with an Oct-Dec 2022 delivery window to kvetch about the newly announced 25k 2022 production forecast and how it will delay our delivery.

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[AllInev]

If today’s production forecasts mean that my Oct-Dec 2022 window moves out to mid-2023, I need to start think more seriously about postponing my order.

A mid-2023 R1T with Rivian designed motors, possible 800 volt architecture, LFP batteries, likely updates and faster chipsets starts to look tempting.

 

[EVTrucking]

I am a July-September 2022 delivery window and I am optimistic that it won’t get pushed out beyond 3/30/23!

 

[AllInev]

I am a July-September delivery window and I am optimistic that it won’t get pushed out beyond 3/30/23!

For this thread, I’m mostly interested in tracking those of us with Oct-Dec 2022 delivery windows.

I hope you’re right about your July-September window.

 

[Taco]

Eh I'm at the point that by the time my number is called we'll ALL have a better idea about how good the truck is, charging, updates etc. Maybe more information on the dual motor and 800v...

If they come out with info like "all dual motors are 800v" I'll most likely change my R1S to that as it's my wife's car and she doesn't a 800+ HP SUV

To me this is a want vs need, yes I want it, but right now my current car (Model X) is just fine.

 

[ads75]

I didn't believe a Oct-Dec 2022 delivery to begin with. I was hoping for it. I am also not counting on any substantial improvements or changes by the R1T is actually delivered. I also have a Cadillac Lyriq Debut reservation, looks like I will be following through with that for awhile. Also have a Silverado reservation, which is also appealing for me, but I am not sure how that will compare dollar for dollar for the pre-March 1 R1T price. Right now I am planning on trading in the Lyriq for a R1T, but that could change to the Silverado depending on pricing and timeline. If I am enoying the Lyriq, I may not be in a rush to get the R1T and wait to see how the Silverado is priced. The pre-March 1 R1T prices help, as well as tax incentive that GM doesn't have. I also think I prefer the R1T smaller size, but the Silverado does have some nice features also.

 

[SANZC02]

I am not sure what the actual delay is. They had said they expected to get through the first 55k by the end of 23. They also said that if not for supply chain they think they could do 50k this year. Based on that, line throughput is progressing but feeding it is the issue.

If the split is 10/15 (EDV/R1) for this year and did not increase the run rate next year but supply chain clears up, they could do 10/40 (EDV/R1) next year and that would give them the 55k. If the run rate continues to ramp up and supply chain can be ironed out they could do more next year.

The piece I can’t find is where they said they would do 50k this year. If that was never a goal, then what was the goal and how much short is 25k from that.

 

[SeaGeo]

If they come out with info like "all dual motors are 800v" I'll most likely change my R1S to that as it's my wife's car and she doesn't a 800+ HP SUV

I hadn't considered the possibility that the dual motor wouldn't only be 800v. Seems like it must be... otherwise why wouldn't they just grab another off the shelf motor?

 

[BigE]

I hadn't considered the possibility that the dual motor wouldn't only be 800v. Seems like it must be... otherwise why wouldn't they just grab another off the shelf motor?

RJ stated on the call yesterday, that the Dual motor design is all new, in house, very compact with built in inverter, 800 V. They also said Rivian has 100 of the new dual motor trucks built and in validation stage now.

 

[SeaGeo]

RJ stated on the call yesterday, that the Dual motor design is all new, in house, very compact with built in inverter, 800 V. They also said Rivian has 100 of the new dual motor trucks built and in validation stage now.

Right, which I would assume that they are all 800v.

 

[nc10]

They also said Rivian has 100 of the new dual motor trucks built and in validation stage now.

I missed the call, did he specificially say that? If so, Great! It could well be, but I don't see it in the call transcripts.

To me, Rivian seems to have a tendency to make statements that make it easy for us to infer certain things are done if you don't read/listen very carefully. I'm thinking we remember the number "100", and infer that it means working, usable, sellable models of the new motor, or 100 vehicles with the motor installed. In my case, the infer is combined with a lot of hope, so I've been burned a few times....

The call letter states " As of March 8, 2022, we have built over 100 pre-production units of our new drive units on our pilot manufacturing line and are executing validation testing for both consumer and commercial vehicle applications "

I read that as Rivian has build 100 pre production motors (I guess motor = drive unit?). Not clear that all worked correctly, were the same size/output/voltage, not clear that any or all were installed in a working vehicle. or how many could be used for validation testing. I wouldn't assume anything beyond what Rivian specifically states. Just don't know either way.

The motors sound interesting, hopefully helps Rivian control of the supply chain, control costs and be more competive. But Rivian likely is not as far along on that effort as we are inferring from the info provided.

 

[BigE]

Right, which I would assume that they are all 800v.

What I recall, was RJ discussing the new Dual motors, new 800 V architecture, and new battery formulations with the addition of the LFP in the small pack. It would be nice to get some clarification on the Quad motors.

 

[Guy]

I am not sure what the actual delay is. They had said they expected to get through the first 55k by the end of 23. They also said that if not for supply chain they think they could do 50k this year. Based on that, line throughput is progressing but feeding it is the issue.

If the split is 10/15 (EDV/R1) for this year and did not increase the run rate next year but supply chain clears up, they could do 10/40 (EDV/R1) next year and that would give them the 55k. If the run rate continues to ramp up and supply chain can be ironed out they could do more next year.

The piece I can’t find is where they said they would do 50k this year. If that was never a goal, then what was the goal and how much short is 25k from that.

Good question. A target of 10k EDVs had been discussed but I had never heard of 40k R1s being built this year. So maybe this is not much of a hit on the deliveries.

 

[nc10]

A mid-2023 R1T with Rivian designed motors, possible 800 volt architecture, LFP batteries, likely updates and faster chipsets starts to look tempting

Past performance is the best predictor of future performance. I'm trying to factor that into how i read Rivian's predictions/statements.

 

[Max]

It looks like by the time my number is called, there will be other options:

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