More Guide Contacts Trickling in...

[ActionDH]

Grrrr. I hear ya. I ordered in March 2019.

I think the biggest challenge is simple. Not enough production. If they are only building a few thousand a month to start, they can't send one to Maine, and the next one to Alabama and the next one to Utah.

I think those that ordered the 400 mile range version won't START getting theirs until spring of 2022. And it may take most of 2022 to get orders delivered just to that waiting list.

Could offer factory deliveries for those early reservations not in privileged CA or coasts

Sponsored

 

[SeaGeo]

all Launch Editions deliveries to be completed by 12/31/21

Where did Rivian promise they'd finish LE deliveries by 12/31/21? As far as I've seen we assumed they would, but I didn't see a promise there. Maybe I missed it.

I did see an estimate for start of deliveries in June. Which they missed, and updated to July. Didn't see a promise though. Annoying? Yes. A sign of lacking integrity? Not in my mind.

There has been no report of the installation of a paint facility.

RJ literally posted two videos showing an Amazon van in pain facilities yesterday.

Since then we have had a very unpleasant disinformation campaign. R1T deliveries to start in July, no change to start of R1S, LE complete in 'spring" 2022, and a few guide contacts which seem to indicate a very significant delay in the start of production.

I think you and I have a different understanding of disinformation campaigns.

It seems pretty clear to me that there are some problems. The following are my guesses:
1. E. Musk was correct that prototyping is easy, production is difficult.
2 Technical problems with vehicle performance which require some redesign.
3. Parts delivery impacted with shipping from China and/or chip availability
4. Delaying production and detailed examination of the finished product until
after the IPO is completed
5. The Rivian people in California have no idea what is going on in Normal, Ill.
6. Hiring enough people to develop the assembly line in Normal is way behind schedule.
7. All the above?

1. I don't think anyone has said that production is easy.
2. I'm unaware of anyone having any knowledge suggesting performance issues are at play. This would surprise me personally.
3. Would I be surprised if supply chain is playing a part on production? No. Would I be surprised if their production numbers are small enough that it isn't an impact? No.
4. This doesn't make sense to me, and is pure conjecture. I full expect that a traditional IPO would value higher with production in place.
5. This implies a level of incompetence that I have trouble believing given the people who are working for the company, and that there are significant sums of investment dollars at play such that I would be very surprised if there was anything but daily coordination between RJ an the folks in Normal for example.
6. entirely possible. But, again, guessing.


I think most of us think we would like information presented differently, and in a more transparent manner (I would). Which is unfortunately. I also think we'd all like to have seen vehicles going out the door in June, but so would Rivian. At this point, I think it's reasonable to sit tight for July and see what happens. We know at least one member who's guide has suggested delivery in August, and we have no idea what their delivery goals are in July other than they plan to deliver vehicles starting then. We also know that guides have communicated that production is intentionally going slowly for quality right now, which is probably a good approach in my opinion. While I've been annoyed with information being communicated in ways and a timeframe that annoys me, I'm also sitting here expecting them to deliver like... 2 trucks in their first month (whatever that ends up being) to hit a delivery date, and am totally fine with that. Production will take a while to ramp up, and that should be expected. I don't get the feeling that the company isn't intending to be honest and take care of their customers. Having to modify plans by a month, and not giving us a "why" doesn't suggest dishonesty. It's just not saying why, which I don't think they actually owe us a why.

 

[Gshenderson]

I was wondering tonight what my reaction will be if I ever need to have my truck serviced and my guide says “they’ll have it done ‘S00N’”…

 

[Zoidz]

It seems pretty clear to me that there are some problems. The following are my guesses:
1. E. Musk was correct that prototyping is easy, production is difficult.
2 Technical problems with vehicle performance which require some redesign.
3. Parts delivery impacted with shipping from China and/or chip availability
4. Delaying production and detailed examination of the finished product until
after the IPO is completed
5. The Rivian people in California have no idea what is going on in Normal, Ill.
6. Hiring enough people to develop the assembly line in Normal is way behind schedule.
7. All the above?

I've been working as an engineer in design, build, construction, startup and commissioning of new manufacturing facilities and retrofit projects for 30 years. Not a lot in automotive, but regardless, the challenges are much the same, whether it's an automotive line or a chocolate bar line. I can speak from years of first hand experience doing projects for companies like Nestle, Land O Lakes, Publix Super Markets (yes they have their own production facilities), a $3B specialty steel manufacturer, etc. I also am a co-owner of a brewery. I understand manufacturing.

My thoughts regarding your list:
1. <E Musk was wrong. Prototyping is *challenging*, factory build out and production is *extremely difficult*> - E. Musk was correct that prototyping is easy, production is difficult.
2. <Totally expected> - Technical problems with vehicle performance which require some redesign.
3. <Not just from China> - Parts delivery impacted with shipping from China and/or chip availability
4. <VERY unlikely - Being in production will boost IPO. If anything, IPO will be delayed, especially in light of Lordstown debacle> Delaying production and detailed examination of the finished product until after the IPO is completed
5. <Unlikely regarding the big picture; Probably true regarding details like "WHY are only certain paint colors being produced"> The Rivian people in California have no idea what is going on in Normal, Ill.
6. <"Develop" the assembly line? No....... Hiring to STAFF and TRAIN the Assembly line - Yes> Hiring enough people to develop the assembly line in Normal is way behind schedule.
7. You missed the top reason - On a project of this scale, many unexpected issues come up that just cannot be predicted or anticipated, and the schedule slips despite everyone's best efforts. Re-read my #1 above.

 

[psyca]

YES DUH!

You may get a line forming... with me in it too!

 

[Vern Bybee]

So there is a lot of stuff going on in this Thread
Can we get back to the title
How many have been contacted?
What are there locations, options & colors
Please

 

[Jarico75]

Has anyone heard of any new guide contacts?

 

[Ladiver]

nope. But I did contact CS Chat this morning and asked if the production line was up and running or if they are still in pre-production. The response was something to the extent of sign up for the e-mail newsletter for the latest updates. I told him typing "no" would have been quicker and much more clear. At least he didn't respond "S00N"

 

[electrictaco]

And with that statement, your argument is a joke. The level to which COVID-19 has disrupted the global supply chain is far beyond your understanding. Rivian's production was directly affected (in person labor restrictions, operations and factory buildout slow downs), and their suppliers certainly were as well (Tier 1 suppliers have delayed everything from microchips to A/C fans), and the suppliers of their suppliers are facing their own raw material shortages (copper, steel, plastic resins).

Add all of this up and I don't fault Rivian one bit, they've held the ship together as best they can. Established manufacturers are hitting the same roadblocks and are struggling just as much (go try and order a Ford F-250 right now, waitlist is until October). They probably aren't sharing photos of production lines because they are supply constrained and may only be able to build a handful of trucks a day (not exactly an impressive photo for the blog).

The rest of us are waiting patiently for our trucks too, maybe give the absurd negativity a rest for a minute.

 

[Ladiver]

They probably aren't sharing photos of production lines because they are supply-constrained and may only be able to build a handful of trucks a day (not exactly an impressive photo for the blog).

Assuming they make 5 per day, that is 25 in a week. SOMEONE on this forum would get their truck in July. I am guessing production has not started yet. Not sure if it is supply constraints or lack of final configurations or some other excuse, but I am confident that they are not (will not be) building production vehicles in July.

I am not expecting to hear anything from my guide until 2022. Don't ask which month because that is a huge unknown at this time.

 

[electrictaco]

Assuming they make 5 per day, that is 25 in a week. SOMEONE on this forum would get their truck in July. I am guessing production has not started yet. Not sure if it is supply constraints or lack of final configurations or some other excuse, but I am confident that they are not (will not be) building production vehicles in July.

I think all initial vehicles delivered in July will be going to early employees, board members, and investors. I think the assumption that a forum member would have to be in the early deliveries is a little off base. Think about how much early pre-order holders feel about their trucks, some that ordered in 2018 are anxiously waiting for a vehicle. Now imagine that same feeling for an investor in Rivian, except they put a couple $100M and that is certainly not refundable like our $1000 deposits. If I was Rivian, I think I know who I would deliver an R1T to first...

 

[Ladiver]

I think all initial vehicles delivered in July will be going to early employees, board members, and investors. I think the assumption that a forum member would have to be in the early deliveries is a little off base. Think about how much early pre-order holders feel about their trucks, some that ordered in 2018 are anxiously waiting for a vehicle. Now imagine that same feeling for an investor in Rivian, except they put a couple $100M and that is certainly not refundable like our $1000 deposits. If I was Rivian, I think I know who I would deliver an R1T to first...

Just because someone is an investor does not mean they are interested in owning the product. They are interested in the potential profits of the company. Giving cars to "early employees, board members, and investors" does not equate to profitability and therefore has the exact opposite effect for an investor. Now, if these individuals are paying full price, then let them jump the line. At some point, one of them will post on social media. Oh, and as part of a full-price sale, there are no NDAs!

 

[cohall]

I think all initial vehicles delivered in July will be going to early employees, board members, and investors. I think the assumption that a forum member would have to be in the early deliveries is a little off base. Think about how much early pre-order holders feel about their trucks, some that ordered in 2018 are anxiously waiting for a vehicle. Now imagine that same feeling for an investor in Rivian, except they put a couple $100M and that is certainly not refundable like our $1000 deposits. If I was Rivian, I think I know who I would deliver an R1T to first...

That's just not how investment works...or being on a board. Equity, yes. Free trucks? No.

Sponsored