From the Rivian IPO Prospectus: Pre-Order Current Production Forecast, complete end of 2023

[LordUlhtred]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...luation-dont-buy-rivians-ipo/?sh=2b73895530d1

Was just reading this article (hadn’t seen it posted here). I think the author makes some valid points on valuation but he bases it only on vehicle sales. To make their proposed valuation they need a lot of additional revenue from adjacent sources. Also the author fails to address the comparison to valuations of Tesla or Lucid but I think those are probably both over priced.

Don’t get me wrong I am currently still buying some shares (30) assuming they price within their range, if they go above I’ll take my chance at buying some at a later point.

Thanks for posting this contrarian article. I think FOMO is gripping this forum and we should stay as rational as possible. That said, I also intent to purchase some shares but definitely proceeding with caution and eyes wide open on the risks.

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[Zoidz]

No merch website is testament to the culture that’s running the show. With all the money they have, anyone with half a brain would say, “hey bill, set up a merch site and get together some sweet schwag for our pre order holders.” Nope. Not important to them.

You are right - there's demand for swag and zero sales and marketing of it. While it's tiny profit in the scheme of billions of debt, it's an important piece of a successful marketing campaign. This would usually be under the responsibility of the VP of Sales and Marketing - the person who got fired and is filing the lawsuit. People here have been complaining about lack of sales and marleting information for a year or more. Also her responsibility. A victim of discrimination, or fired for failing to execute her responsibilities?

 

[Blur1t]

You are right - there's demand for swag and zero sales and marketing of it. While it's tiny profit in the scheme of billions of debt, it's an important piece of a successful marketing campaign. This would usually be under the responsibility of the VP of Sales and Marketing - the person who got fired and is filing the lawsuit. People here have been complaining about lack of sales and marleting information for a year or more. Also her responsibility. A victim of discrimination, or fired for failing to execute her responsibilities?

Not much marketing needed to get done at Austin Martin, merchandise too, makes me wonder why she resigned from there after 6 years…

 

[Coast2Coast]

The S-1 prospectus says "complete our preorder backlog of 55K vehicles by the end of 2023". In addition, there's another transfer line producing Amazon vans or EDVs and the prospectus also says, if I remember correctly, Rivian plans to deliver 10K vans by the end of 2023.

For a new auto plant to deliver 65K vehicles (55K + 10K) in 2 years is quite an accomplishment.

In the first full year of production, delivering 20K vehicles is doing quite well. Doubling that in the second full year would be doing quite well. In other words, while we might not like it, since we want our trucks now, taking two years to clear the preorder backlog and deliver thousands of vans to Amazon is actually doing quite well.

If we aggregate total Amazon preorders with total preorders for the R1s, that's 155K vehicles. In other words, Rivian now has at least three years' worth of preorders on hand, and that's assuming the number of preorders doesn't rise.

 

[DaveA]

Thanks for posting this contrarian article. I think FOMO is gripping this forum and we should stay as rational as possible. That said, I also intent to purchase some shares but definitely proceeding with caution and eyes wide open on the risks.

It'll pump for a day or two then dump...almost a certainty.

 

[Zoidz]

You're saying that there's another lawsuit where someone is claiming that Rivian is basically misleading investors about the price point for their vehicles?

Consider the following regarding the price point accusation:
1. She had pure Sales and Marketing background at her previous jobs, not manufacturing/costing.
2. Aston Martin hand builds 5,200 custom cars a year.
3. Land Rover sold about 14,000 vehicles in the US in 2020.

There's a big difference between understanding pricing of hand built and low volume products, compared to Rivian's goal of mass producing hundreds of thousands of vehicles a year. Especially when you work in sales and marketing in an establish company, not manufacturing costing and pricing in a startup.

 

[Dubs]

You are right - there's demand for swag and zero sales and marketing of it. While it's tiny profit in the scheme of billions of debt, it's an important piece of a successful marketing campaign. This would usually be under the responsibility of the VP of Sales and Marketing - the person who got fired and is filing the lawsuit. People here have been complaining about lack of sales and marleting information for a year or more. Also her responsibility. A victim of discrimination, or fired for failing to execute her responsibilities?

Solid point.

 

[Riventures]

I don't think investors are really worried about cost at this point. For the valuation to make sense, Rivian has to generate $8B revenue by 2025. As large as the EV market is, and related services are today, I am having a hard time visualizing that for Rivian.

In the end, every manufacturer has to put out the products, tires to asphalt. That means Rivian has to learn manufacturing at high volumes four times faster than Tesla. I am in the opinion that you can only 'buy' so much of that experience, a significant portion of it has to be earned and that is very time-dependent.

 

[St Bernard]

I don't think investors are really worried about cost at this point. For the valuation to make sense, Rivian has to generate $8B revenue by 2025. As large as the EV market is, and related services are today, I am having a hard time visualizing that for Rivian.

In the end, every manufacturer has to put out the products, tires to asphalt. That means Rivian has to learn manufacturing at high volumes four times faster than Tesla. I am in the opinion that you can only 'buy' so much of that experience, a significant portion of it has to be earned and that is very time-dependent.

$8b is only 100,000 vehicles!

 

[Dubs]

Anybody else having a hard time even trying to sell some of your shares? Is there a lockout for us?

 

[Trekkie]

Anybody else having a hard time even trying to sell some of your shares? Is there a lockout for us?

Shouldn't be a lockout, but there could be market circuit breakers that kick in halting trading for 15m to calm things down, not sure if those have been hit or not.

 

[timesinks]

I suspect if you can't sell them, it's because you haven't paid for them yet. That's called Freeriding and is a violation of federal regulations.

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