Cybertruck Thoughts

[Rivian Head]

Your article was 6 months old

That’s pretty good

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[srnyoung]

The sales numbers may eventually be accurate, but let's stop pretending those reservation numbers you keep throwing around are real. The "2 million" reservation number was exposed to be crowdsourced. Then Elon ran with it, acting like that was accurate even though he was the one person who would know what the real numbers were.

And it's because of his wild statements since 2019 that everyone was underwhelmed by the reveal.

I agree that traditional truck buyers aren't going electric yet and if they do, they are likely to go with a Lightning if they are used to a full size truck. But the CT is not likely to meet those lofty sales expectations either. It's proving to be even more of a niche product than the R1T.

Didn't Musk himself say the Clustertruck is the worst product they've made?
And that it may bankrupt the company?

 

[carsly]

Your article was 6 months old

In Elon-time that's like 69 seconds.

 

[COdogman]

Didn't Musk himself say the Clustertruck is the worst product they've made?
And that it may bankrupt the company?

He did, but he was probably high when he said it so there is no way of knowing if he remembers saying it.

 

[Biturbowned]

Cybertruck thoughts…nah.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Cybertruck thoughts…nah.

Cybertruck prayers then?

 

[srnyoung]

It seems that Tesla hasn't even delivered the 20K foundation series trucks yet.

For your viewing pleasure: (The article IS a week old already...)
"Tesla has claimed that it currently has annual production capacity to produce 125,000 Cybertrucks per year – a number that wasn’t all that believable from the get-go. So, a quarter of a year into production, this would mean that Tesla should have been able to make 30,000+ Cybertrucks by now.

But if the company is just starting to offer early delivery to shareholders, either this means they’re going to produce tens of thousands of Foundation Series trucks, or they’re nowhere near 125,000 production capacity. We’re going to guess it’s the latter.

This move could also signal that the take-rate for Foundation Series invites has been disappointing.
...
Months later, it seems like the delivery numbers may still be coming in a trickle, rather than a flood."

Look, there will be a couple hundred thousand Tesla-stans who will buy the CT and be ... happy... (gag)

It will not be a world-changing vehicle and I bet it never reaches a million delivered because capacity does not equal demand or deliveries.

ETA: someone in the comments who said he was Preorder ~100k was offered a Foundation Series CT. So, >80% fail rate? Woof.

 

[srnyoung]

He did, but he was probably high when he said it so there is no way of knowing if he remembers saying it.

But investors should be grateful for that heavy drug use [that will cause his SpaceX contracts to be cancelled...]

 

[A Land Rover Forever]

Cyberdork!!

 

[Rivian Head]

It seems that Tesla hasn't even delivered the 20K foundation series trucks yet.

For your viewing pleasure: (The article IS a week old already...)
"Tesla has claimed that it currently has annual production capacity to produce 125,000 Cybertrucks per year – a number that wasn’t all that believable from the get-go. So, a quarter of a year into production, this would mean that Tesla should have been able to make 30,000+ Cybertrucks by now.

But if the company is just starting to offer early delivery to shareholders, either this means they’re going to produce tens of thousands of Foundation Series trucks, or they’re nowhere near 125,000 production capacity. We’re going to guess it’s the latter.

This move could also signal that the take-rate for Foundation Series invites has been disappointing.
...
Months later, it seems like the delivery numbers may still be coming in a trickle, rather than a flood."

Look, there will be a couple hundred thousand Tesla-stans who will buy the CT and be ... happy... (gag)

It will not be a world-changing vehicle and I bet it never reaches a million delivered because capacity does not equal demand or deliveries.

I turned down Foundation configuration offer, and will wait for less expensive model that also qualifies for the federal and state tax credit. Very difficult to gauge how many will opt for Foundation model. Since they are now allowing long term stock holders to cut in line , one can assume demand must be very strong even with $20K upgrade. I, however, think most reservation holders will opt for $79k model, which I think is a hulluva deal at $67k ( in Colorado). That’s why I think Tesla will sell out every CT they can make at this price.

 

[srnyoung]

I turned down Foundation configuration offer, and will wait for less expensive model that also qualifies for the federal and state tax credit. Very difficult to gauge how many will opt for Foundation model. Since they are now allowing long term stock holders to cut in line , one can assume demand must be very strong even with $20K upgrade. I, however, think most reservation holders will opt for $79k model, which I think is a hulluva deal at $67k ( in Colorado). That’s why I think Tesla will sell out every CT they can make at this price.

One could assume that. One could also assume they didn't find 20k people willing to buy the overpriced thing.
And further, one could assume they were sick of all the bad press from the early buyers breaking, shooting, and failing to reproduce Musk's antics, not to mention the flippers (that then cost legal fees to go after) with their Clustertrucks.
I do agree, the vast majority of the reservation holders (in unknown number) never wanted to pay $120k and are not going there. It's a mediocre implementation of "innovations" that Tesla has no right to claim. It remains to be seen if those reservation holders are still waiting around if/when the $70k version even makes it to production...

 

[Rivian Head]

One could assume that. One could also assume they didn't find 20k people willing to buy the overpriced thing.
And further, one could assume they were sick of all the bad press from the early buyers breaking, shooting, and failing to reproduce Musk's antics, not to mention the flippers (that then cost legal fees to go after) with their Clustertrucks.
I do agree, the vast majority of the reservation holders (in unknown number) never wanted to pay $120k and are not going there. It's a mediocre implementation of "innovations" that Tesla has no right to claim. It remains to be seen if those reservation holders are still waiting around if/when the $70k version even makes it to production...

If you look at Tesla’s anti flipping policy, preferential deliveries to long time shareholders, early reports of people still flipping for $250k+, you can draw your own conclusion on demand issue. The question is sustainability of its demands at $ 70K. You can’t also rule out Elon’s penchant for lowering its price as volume ramps up. Only time will tell…

 

[Zoidz]

CT - "Verdict: The electric truck for digital natives who crave attention more than they do adventure."

R1T - "Verdict: A just-right blend of distinctive design and accessible innovation that encourages outdoor exploration."

'nuff said....

 

[Zoidz]

Only time will tell. But do some research. Pay money to get their research data if you want to know how they came up with the conclusions. They are not alway right, but their rationales are legit

The article correctly questions that while he has been a reasonable source of Apple forecasts, he has zero history in the automotive market.

Recent production rate estimates were claiming 80 units a day. It's a VERY aggressive ramp to get to 100,000 vehicles by year end at this point. It apparetnly took Tesla 9 months to ramp up to 10,000 model Ys. What evidence, based on Tesla history, leads one to believe that they can ramp CT at 10 times the rate they ramped the model Y?

"The forecast, shared by TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo via Medium, puts shipment figures between 100-200 units by the end of 2023, 100,000-120,000 units in 2024, and 240,000-260,000 units by 2025.

Several publications consider Kuo to be a reliable forecaster of Apple’s plans, but we’ll have to wait for a few months before we can take his Tesla predictions seriously. It's unclear what metrics he used or which industry sources he relied on to come up with these figures, which slot into the lower end of Tesla’s own forecast."

 

[Rivian Head]

We shall know Q1 numbers and production guidance in mid April. BTW CT business is a very small part of Tesla which will eclipse 2 million units sold this year. CT will contribute only 5-6 % of total sales figure. But I am most interested in neural network based (AI based) FSD guidance, especially rumored V 13.0. Saw a clip of Microsoft‘s version of autonomous driving. OMG, my jaw dropped. Robotaxi Is not too far away…

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