Battery Replacement Hypothetical

[Fmc]

I assume I save about $1k per year on electricity vs gas and another $100 on oil changes. Therefore after 10 years I have save $11k. After 10 years my battery will degrade 20%. Would spending $10-15k on a new battery make sense? I know there are more variables to consider.

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[Dave Cundiff]

I assume I save about $1k per year on electricity vs gas and another $100 on oil changes. Therefore after 10 years I have save $11k. After 10 years my battery will degrade 20%. Would spending $10-15k on a new battery make sense? I know there are more variables to consider.

That will depend on how you use your car, how much money you have, how serviceable and enjoyable your car is otherwise, how convenient and safe a battery replacement is, and more variables than I have time to type.

In a close case, you could have quite an interesting puzzle on your hands. But in a close case, there's not likely to be a lot at stake either....

Fun question to think about!

 

[CharonPDX]

Nobody has any idea what a battery replacement for a Rivian will be 10 years from now.

And if 80% of original range is still sufficient to meet your needs, why even bother replacing it?

The 2014 Tesla my Rivian partly replaced was at 70.5% of its original capacity, and it was still perfectly fine for road trips. (Of course, the warranty replacement cutoff was 70%. My testing was showing it right at/below 70% coming up on the 8-year mark, so I filed a ticket, they had the vehicle do a software reset, and it put the capacity test at 70.5%. Just high enough to avoid warranty replacement.)

 

[edman007]

I think resale value is going to be too high, and if it's only 20% loss, you're not going to dump $10k into it (probably less) when you could just sell it and get something better.

 

[R1Sky Business]

In 10 yrs there will be solid state batteries available.... may be worth it

 

[Fmc]

In 10 yrs there will be solid state batteries available.... may be worth it

Whether it’s solid state or more efficiency. My hope is battery recycling and replacement advances. Hopefully my R1s has 10+ years in it.

 

[emoore]

Whether it’s solid state or more efficiency. My hope is battery recycling and replacement advances. Hopefully my R1s has 10+ years in it.

I wouldn’t count on swapping in a different battery chemistry without a major renovation. You could probably buy the same battery chemistry for 10k in 10 years but you will never be able to put a solid state battery in a 10 year old rivian for that cheap.

 

[Riviot]

Whether it’s solid state or more efficiency. My hope is battery recycling and replacement advances. Hopefully my R1s has 10+ years in it.

I'd be more concerned about air suspension issues and hoping for a coil-over option by then. My old Land Rover needed those before it needed a head gasket replacement and engine overhaul, what I consider the ICE equivalent of battery replacement.

 

[BigSkies]

In 10 yrs there will be solid state batteries available.... may be worth it

Solid state will not be backwards compatible with the current generation of vehicles.

Form factor, charge management software, temperature management, etc are all completely different. It’s one part of what makes solid state harder.

I suspect the first cars with solid state will be on dedicated platforms that are designed around the batteries.

We’ll likely see the Silicon Anode batteries show up in something resembling the current form factor though.

 

[MIG]

A lot can happen in 10 years. I've posted about this elsewhere but when we bought our first Prius in 2005, the cost of a replacement hybrid battery was $10,000. When we finally had to replace it, in 2017, the cost at the dealer was about $3,500. I ended up going with a 3rd party refurbished unit (with a 3-year warranty) for $1,500 - including delivery and installation. We gave the car away but it's still running. So assuming Rivian stays alive and they gain market share the situation may be very different in 2034.

 

[emoore]

A lot can happen in 10 years. I've posted about this elsewhere but when we bought our first Prius in 2005, the cost of a replacement hybrid battery was $10,000. When we finally had to replace it, in 2017, the cost at the dealer was about $3,500. I ended up going with a 3rd party refurbished unit (with a 3-year warranty) for $1,500 - including delivery and installation. We gave the car away but it's still running. So assuming Rivian stays alive and they gain market share the situation may be very different in 2034.

But is it a different battery chemistry? I wouldn't think so. I don't think upgrading the battery chemistry is going to happen, just replacement with the same type of battery.

 

[MIG]

But is it a different battery chemistry? I wouldn't think so. I don't think upgrading the battery chemistry is going to happen, just replacement with the same type of battery.

Same chemistry, different levels of efficiency. As batteries start nearing end-of life in larger numbers the recycling/refurbishment businesses become more financially viable, ditto 3rd party solutions. 10 years is a pretty long time as adoption increases and technology advances.

 

[ndmiller]

10 years is an eternity in both battery technology and automobile safety. Additionally 20% degradation after 10 years isn't what people are seeing with current EV's. My personal 2017 EV degraded 1-2% in 6 years before I sold it to Carvana. I'd bet you'll be in the market for something new before 10 years passes with your Rivian.

 

[Fmc]

The timeline is probably closer to 15 years however for most of my driving 300 miles of range is optimal and I will probably need air suspension or spring conversion before a battery.

 

[sub]

I've been back for warranty repairs 6 times in 6 months. These vehicles are not going to last as long as a Toyota. And I would be hesitant to spend $15,000 refurbishing a 10 year old Toyota even with their stellar reputation for reliability and longevity.

Even if it hasn't completely broken down in 10 years, it will still be a 10 year old vehicle.

The suspension and brakes will be rusty. The body panels, seats and trim will be scratched and dented. The interior will stink from 10 years of fast food drippings and the perfume that you have added to try to cover it up. The computer will feel slow as molasses. The LTE cell reception will have gone dark. The state of CCS charging will be like chademo is now (slow, and only one stall if any). The safety features would be insufficient to be legally sold as a new vehicle. And all sorts of small things will have broken that weren't worth fixing post-warranty.

If it has 80% battery life at 10 years, the battery will have held up better than the rest of the vehicle. I would be more tempted to keep the battery and replace the rest, than keep the rest and replace the battery.

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