Article: Tesla's Cybertruck May Not Actually Happen

[camaroz1985]

It won't be cancelled, there is too much money left on the table for Tesla. They will eventually make it, but it definitely isn't 2022 (as has been confirmed), and probably won't be 2023 either. I would bet it is 2024, and it will be $100k+, and they will sell every single one they can make.

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[3l3c7r1c]

Tesla doesn't want to build the Cybertruck because:
1) they don't know how to build the truck or the 4680
2) the Supercharger network is already overcrowded

Tesla / Musk said they don't want to build the truck before they build the Y (starting soon in Texas) and their next vehicle (smaller than the Model 3 focusing on China, a larger EV market.)

Tesla needs two years to build out the Supercharger network.

The truck will be built in Texas in about two years … we've already seen a toned-down version and Tesla is clearly struggling with the chasm between prototype and production vehicle (wipers, mirrors, cabin, etc.)

Meanwhile, Ford will build as many Lightnings as it can sell, GM will stuff some batteries in a Chevy Avalanche (mid-gate) and bring it to market before Tesla can invent the production method for the 4680. Tesla could well end up using CATL or BYD for a battery.

End of the day it's a private business and the first objective is to maximizing profit. Right now Model 3 and Y are way more profitable. I think they increased the price like almost $10k last year and they don't have any shortage of demand there. With lithium and nickel price shoot up significantly recently, battery is definitely got more expensive and CT needs a much bigger battery. Also their power storage solution needs lot of batteries. Until their battery production exceeds the demand, I don't see they are making trucks.

 

[the long way downunder]

Tesla doesn't want to build the Cybertruck because:
1) they don't know how to build the truck or the 4680
2) the Supercharger network is already overcrowded

Tesla / Musk said they don't want to build the truck before they build the Y (starting soon in Texas) and their next vehicle (smaller than the Model 3 focusing on China, a larger EV market.)

Tesla needs two years to build out the Supercharger network.

The truck will be built in Texas in about two years … we've already seen a toned-down version and Tesla is clearly struggling with the chasm between prototype and production vehicle (wipers, mirrors, cabin, etc.)

Meanwhile, Ford will build as many Lightnings as it can sell, GM will stuff some batteries in a Chevy Avalanche (mid-gate) and bring it to market before Tesla can invent the production method for the 4680. Tesla could well end up using CATL or BYD for a battery.

Update: Tesla says they're building the 4680 in Texas and they have no plan to build the Cybertruck (so it's at least a '23 - '24 timeframe … and over a million "waiters" … ) I was expecting this to be taken badly, but I'm astonished by the sell-off (and will be selling puts to buy more $TSLA.)

 

[ChrissyOne]

???????????????????

Yeah they'll deffo have these at WalMart.

It's not ever going to happen. Never ever ever.

 

[E.S.]

Even if Tesla does produce this vehicle, it's not going to be the same thing as originally launched. Already the vehicle has gone through a lot of changes and it hasn't even gone post prototype yet.

 

[ESTRUCK]

This guy will build your TESLER SIBER TRUCK ..... WATCH THE VIDEO !

https://www.motorious.com/articles/...MA&jobid=f2e5ae97-bac7-455f-9ce3-c7963790edb1

 

[the long way downunder]

$TSLA is saying Tesla is doing well (apparently Giga Bavaria is about to green light.)
Munro says the Cybertruck is not a technology problem (so I conclude it's a business decision to prioritize the Model Y given production capacity constraints.) We're still not going to be smirking at the oddity that is the Clustertruck for another year or two. : )

 

[NY_Rob]

By the time the CT is actually ready for 1st customer deliveries (IF... that ever happens) there will be at 3 or most likely 4 and maybe even 5 EV pickup trucks on the market already being delivered. I can see many, many declining to purchase the CT at that point.

 

[COdogman]

Musk has said that he doesn't necessarily intend for it to compete with traditional trucks, but he knows he's not fooling anyone with that crap. He's the one who posted that video early on of it in a tug of war with an F 150. And they continue to post photos of it at construction sites. I don't think many aside from ultra Tesla fanboys/ girls will be all that interested in it. I still think it never sees production.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Musk has said that he doesn't necessarily intend for it to compete with traditional trucks, but he knows he's not fooling anyone with that crap. He's the one who posted that video early on of it in a tug of war with an F 150. And they continue to post photos of it at construction sites. I don't think many aside from ultra Tesla fanboys/ girls will be all that interested in it. I still think it never sees production.

I think it will, it just won't be the truck they advertised it to be during the reveal. Which is probably a good thing, because the reveal truck was impractical as hell.

 

[OverZealous]

I think it will, it just won't be the truck they advertised it to be during the reveal. Which is probably a good thing, because the reveal truck was impractical as hell.

All the pre-production models people have been seeing at the factory don't really look changed in any meaningful way. It's slightly uglier (amazing they figured out how to make that happen), and has a 3-foot-long wiper and mirrors, but otherwise, it still has all the weird limitations of the original.

I think something will be released called the Cybertruck, and that thing will be a spectacularly ugly metal triangle, but I also strongly believe the actual starting price will end up north of $80k, and it'll end up being yet another impractical toy to sate Elon's ego.

 

[COdogman]

I think it will, it just won't be the truck they advertised it to be during the reveal. Which is probably a good thing, because the reveal truck was impractical as hell.

You might be right. Agree 100% on the impractical part. I still can't look at those pointy rear corners without wincing.

 

[the long way downunder]

Musk has said that he doesn't necessarily intend for it to compete with traditional trucks, but he knows he's not fooling anyone with that crap. He's the one who posted that video early on of it in a tug of war with an F 150. And they continue to post photos of it at construction sites. I don't think many aside from ultra Tesla fanboys/ girls will be all that interested in it. I still think it never sees production.

A year ago I would have said the Clustertruck is 50:50 not happening, and I still question whether the Roadster II will ever eventuate, but today, I'm confident both are possible and the Cybrtrk is 100% certain.

1) commercial, industrial, trade, war and law, primary industries, transit … fleet buyers are going 100% BEV and will be contracting with Made in the USA vehicle makers ahead of imports for everything from police semi-militarized machines to everyday mail trucks, last mile delivery, commuter vans … the Cybertruck is the platform for all of these variants… just look at every vehicle from a two door pickup to a 30 seater bus that Ford can put on the F-250 (up to F-650) with the same basic rolling chassis as the "skateboard" … Tesla's a bunch of bright minds … they've got this planned out for 10 years selling hundreds of thousands and millions of vehicles on the Cybertruck platform.

2) Munro says that he sees no engineering problems (from production and assembly to metallurgy and materials science) and he's seen (in their tear-down) that the Plaid battery and tri-motor are capable of going into the Cybertruck (some of the Plaid is now backward- and forward-compatible with the 3 and Y … Tesla is quickly learning how to build cars … things they didn't know when they built the S and X.)

3) they've got the 4680 into production

4) as the US consumer shifts to a BEV in the household, that sale will influence their choice of household power systems (solar-battery for household energy, emergency power and for cost-savings while taking advantage of government incentives and improving their primary asset value.)

5) there's 1+ million pre-orders … even if 25% of those happen …

If Tesla drops the Cybertruck platform – and I didn't see Tesla gifting the pickup market to Ford and GM without a fight in 2022 – it's giving up millions of vehicle sales outside the retail light vehicle markets. If Tesla doesn't make a Cybertruck variant for each of the markets I described – each amounting to hundreds of thousands of vehicle every year on rolling contracts to replace aging and damaged vehicles for years – then Rivian, Ford, GM, Stellantis and others like (Lordstown, Bollinger, Atlis and others will be bidding for those contracts.

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