Are Build Estimates Accurate ?

[Jeff2583]

I am new here and just ordered an R1T Limestone with Ocean Crest Interior Large Battery. When I placed my order it said 1-6 weeks aka October-November. It’s really important to me that I take delivery by the end of the year. Is there any consensus on the accuracy of the these lead times? Thanks!

Sponsored

 

[mikehmb]

I just did an online config to see what it said, and it came back with "Oct-Nov" ...

Sounds plausible. Their delivery estimates were dead-on for me, and that was 2 years ago.

 

[Khaos]

YMMV.

I made an order in June and it said Sept-Oct and it's been radio silent from Rivian. Been sitting in the configuration confirmed status since, it's ridiculous frankly

 

[sub]

No - I think it is very possible that Rivian has not lived up a single time estimate ever.

If they give you a date range, view the last day in that range as the soonest it might possibly happen, with a very good chance that it takes 2-3x longer.

Rivian missed my initial ETA by more than a year.

 

[swflor]

I ordered my Tri-Max on June 6th (whenever they announced it). From the order, it said Sept-Oct. Never heard from anyone and frankly didn’t expect it to come Sept-Oct.

Got an email on 9/26 to do the 8 step…VIN assigned. Phone call from Richmond on 9/27 to schedule Delivery for 10/4. Richmond received it on 9/30. Delivered on 10/4.

They may not communicate well but with every Rivian I have bought (5 now), I had the vehicle delivery when expected or ahead of expectation.

 

[VSG]

No - I think it is very possible that Rivian has not lived up a single time estimate ever.
...
Rivian missed my initial ETA by more than a year.

I really get tired of all these alternative facts and re-writing of history. Your narrative is false, but because this is so often repeated perhaps you even believe it. But you're not bolstering your argument by making provably false statements like this.

Your signature says:

R1S Launch Edition 10,XXX | Compass Yellow | Ocean Coast | 22" Bright
Delivered 7/14/2023 | Ordered 7/23/2021

So you expected to get your R1S in early 2022 (more than a year before 7/23)? That's a ridiculous statement. If you expected that, then YOU are the one at fault, because Rivian never promised you that.

Back in July 2021 when you ordered, Rivian was saying that the R1Ts would start shipping in September 2021. And the R1Ss, like you ordered, were not going to start production until 6 months after that. That had been the plan ever since they first opened up configuration in Nov 2020 - there was no mystery at all about the R1T being produced first then the R1S going into production 6 months later. Specifically, when you ordered they were saying that they would announce the R1S delivery schedule in January 2022.

As a 2021 order, you had maybe 40 thousand orders ahead of you. I'm not going to bother to look up the exact number, but my point is it was a known number and was very large. Their predictions for the first year of manufacturing were 25k vehicles. So you knew or should have known that your R1S would not be delivered in the first year of production. Did you really expect to get a vehicle in mid-2022 when you were that far back in line? That would have been a failure in expectations on your part.

As it turns out, after the date of your order, deliveries to non-employee customers was delayed by 6 months - no more. And during COVID BTW, when plants were being shut down and everything was being delayed and we all had to fight for the last roll of toilet paper on the supermarket shelves. In that context you really thought you were going to get your vehicle a year EARLIER than planned?

The R1T started to ship in bulk to customers in March 2022 (6 months after the September 2021 date that was the current estimate when you placed your order). And R1S started shipping in bulk to customers exactly 6 months after the R1T, exactly like they said.

So what you SHOULD have expected back then was that you would get a car 1 year or more after they started production of the R1S, which given their estimate at the time that production would start in January 2022 then the soonest you should have expected your vehicle is sometime in 2023. Depending on your place in line, that was likely to be around mid-2023 (which was EXACTLY when you got it!).

Even with the production delay of 6 months, you apparently got your vehicle exactly when you should have expected to get your vehicle - mid-2023. (Part of the reason why they caught up on that delay was because they ramped production and were running at a rate of 50k vehicles a year by the time they delivered yours ...)

Sounds like they met their estimate to me, and if you expected something a year sooner you must have been smoking something at the time. I had a pre-order in 2020 for a Launch Edition R1T, and I applied this same logic back then to estimate I would receive my vehicle in late summer 2022. I got it in Sept 2022, so my prediction in 2020 turned out to be accurate. And if you had asked on the forums back in 2021 when you placed your order, I would have said you should expect mid-2023 or later (maybe I did tell you that previously - I told SO MANY people that they were having unreasonable expectations that you should have seen at least one of my posts explaining this ...) Regardless, I have found that the delivery timeframes have been extremely predicatble for most people. With notable exceptions of course, like Canada and the Carolinas, for known reasons.

 

[VSG]

I am new here and just ordered an R1T Limestone with Ocean Crest Interior Large Battery. When I placed my order it said 1-6 weeks aka October-November. It’s really important to me that I take delivery by the end of the year. Is there any consensus on the accuracy of the these lead times? Thanks!

I don't think anyone knows right now how the recently-announced parts shortage is going to affect specific delivery timelines. Rivian is only going to deliver about half as many vehicles in Q4 as they previously planned, because of the parts shortage. So that WILL affect you in some way.

I think there is a good chance you will get your vehicle in 2024, unless there is something specific about your configuration that is problematic. I think it would be wise to consult with customer service to see if there are changes you could make to get your vehicle earlier. Certainly, picking something out of the shop is more likely to get you the vehicle sooner - anything in the the shop is available NOW. I don't know what production planning looks like for your exact configuration. I suspect the number of motors you ordered will have a huge influence on when you get your vehicle, because the parts shortage is a motor component.

 

[sub]

I really get tired of all these alternative facts and re-writing of history. Your narrative is false, but because this is so often repeated perhaps you even believe it. But you're not bolstering your argument by making provably false statements like this.

Your signature says:

So you expected to get your R1S in early 2022 (more than a year before 7/23)? That's a ridiculous statement. If you expected that, then YOU are the one at fault, because Rivian never promised you that.

Back in July 2021 when you ordered, Rivian was saying that the R1Ts would start shipping in September 2021. And the R1Ss, like you ordered, were not going to start production until 6 months after that. That had been the plan ever since they first opened up configuration in Nov 2020 - there was no mystery at all about the R1T being produced first then the R1S going into production 6 months later. Specifically, when you ordered they were saying that they would announce the R1S delivery schedule in January 2022.

As a 2021 order, you had maybe 40 thousand orders ahead of you. I'm not going to bother to look up the exact number, but my point is it was a known number and was very large. Their predictions for the first year of manufacturing were 25k vehicles. So you knew or should have known that your R1S would not be delivered in the first year of production. Did you really expect to get a vehicle in mid-2022 when you were that far back in line? That would have been a failure in expectations on your part.

As it turns out, after the date of your order, deliveries to non-employee customers was delayed by 6 months - no more. And during COVID BTW, when plants were being shut down and everything was being delayed and we all had to fight for the last roll of toilet paper on the supermarket shelves. In that context you really thought you were going to get your vehicle a year EARLIER than planned?

The R1T started to ship in bulk to customers in March 2022 (6 months after the September 2021 date that was the current estimate when you placed your order). And R1S started shipping in bulk to customers exactly 6 months after the R1T, exactly like they said.

So what you SHOULD have expected back then was that you would get a car 1 year or more after they started production of the R1S, which given their estimate at the time that production would start in January 2022 then the soonest you should have expected your vehicle is sometime in 2023. Depending on your place in line, that was likely to be around mid-2023 (which was EXACTLY when you got it!).

Even with the production delay of 6 months, you apparently got your vehicle exactly when you should have expected to get your vehicle - mid-2023. (Part of the reason why they caught up on that delay was because they ramped production and were running at a rate of 50k vehicles a year by the time they delivered yours ...)

Sounds like they met their estimate to me, and if you expected something a year sooner you must have been smoking something at the time. I had a pre-order in 2020 for a Launch Edition R1T, and I applied this same logic back then to estimate I would receive my vehicle in late summer 2022. I got it in Sept 2022, so my prediction in 2020 turned out to be accurate. And if you had asked on the forums back in 2021 when you placed your order, I would have said you should expect mid-2023 or later (maybe I did tell you that previously - I told SO MANY people that they were having unreasonable expectations that you should have seen at least one of my posts explaining this ...) Regardless, I have found that the delivery timeframes have been extremely predicatble for most people. With notable exceptions of course, like Canada and the Carolinas, for known reasons.

When I placed my order there was giant text on the page saying R1S deliveries begin in January 2022.

They were also advertising that they would produce more than 50,000 vehicles per year.

If half of a 50K production was R1S (more than half of orders are for R1S so that is a totally reasonable assumption) then that would be at least 20,000 R1S in 2022. I was #10,000 in line (proven by my VIN) so I should have been about 6 months into production.

And I did get my vehicle about half of a year after production began. But "real" (non-employee, non-influrncer) deliveries of R1S didn't begin in more than token quantities until 2023.

The R1S was a year late. Every thing Rivian does is late. I will not claim that I was disappointed as I never expected them to meet the deadlines they published. But that doesn't change the fact that every time they have shared a date they missed it.

 

[Jeff2583]

I don't think anyone knows right now how the recently-announced parts shortage is going to affect specific delivery timelines. Rivian is only going to deliver about half as many vehicles in Q4 as they previously planned, because of the parts shortage. So that WILL affect you in some way.

I think there is a good chance you will get your vehicle in 2024, unless there is something specific about your configuration that is problematic. I think it would be wise to consult with customer service to see if there are changes you could make to get your vehicle earlier. Certainly, picking something out of the shop is more likely to get you the vehicle sooner - anything in the the shop is available NOW. I don't know what production planning looks like for your exact configuration. I suspect the number of motors you ordered will have a huge influence on when you get your vehicle, because the parts shortage is a motor component.

Very insightful, thank you! The shop doesn’t seem to have a lot of large battery packs which is what I’m looking for. I’ll keep my eyes out.

 

[Wispitgood]

I ordered my Tri-Max on June 6th (whenever they announced it). From the order, it said Sept-Oct. Never heard from anyone and frankly didn’t expect it to come Sept-Oct.

Got an email on 9/26 to do the 8 step…VIN assigned. Phone call from Richmond on 9/27 to schedule Delivery for 10/4. Richmond received it on 9/30. Delivered on 10/4.

They may not communicate well but with every Rivian I have bought (5 now), I had the vehicle delivery when expected or ahead of expectation.

So, from your experince as stated is good info for us waiting in silence. I ordered 2025 R1T on 9/8/24, so ising your experiences, I should not here a peep till around Christmas with delivery next year!

Would you agree, and is my convern that the government incentives will not apply is valid?

 

[swflor]

So, from your experince as stated is good info for us waiting in silence. I ordered 2025 R1T on 9/8/24, so ising your experiences, I should not here a peep till around Christmas with delivery next year!

Would you agree, and is my convern that the government incentives will not apply is valid?

I can’t tell you that. With the parts shortage (if that’s truly what it is) is real…you may not see it in 2024.

Also, most builds continue to be R1S. R1T is a much smaller sample of builds.

One thing that indicated to me Tri-Max R1S I ordered would be on time…remember that picture of the plant fire?? I am 110% confident there are storm blue R1S’ in the parking lot in that picture. That picture was months ago….and I got a VIN on 9/27. I think they were stocking up the Tri-Max orders holding them until after Sept 1 to avoid potential incentives.

The newly announced loyalty incentive that DID include Tri-Max was announced the day I took delivery. I asked about a credit and was told that was only for new ORDERS placed after a Oct 1 (or something like that)…mine was ordered June 6th. Was crap in my opinion but dates are dates. Most of the ordered after 10/1 May or may not delivery before 12/31 unless it’s a shop purchase.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Accurate only if everything progress as predicted. Life doesn’t always work that way. Shit happens. Parts shortage can happen. Production disruptions happens. Don’t mistake estimates for promises. Far too many people do that and them come here to complain how Rivian mislead.

Sponsored