EV vs ICE - Most Comprehensive Study Ever Performed [report by American Chemical Society]

[NeedSumCoffee]

Most comprehensive EV vs ICE study ever performed. Finally someone compared the entire lifecycle to include mining of lithium, vehicle production, electricity generation, and disposal. It also factored in size of vehicles, location, and use cases (including towing).

On average, EVs take 4 tonnes more CO2 to produce, but ultimately save 20 tonnes of CO2 during 15yrs of operation. There is a net savings of 16 tonnes over the entire lifecycle for each EV. Trucks are the biggest delta at 78 tonnes savings over life. They didnt do a seperate breakdown of full size SUVs though, but is likely closer to pickup truck than it is midsize SUV.

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[NY_Rob]

Of course the study is assuming you will be able to get and or afford the parts to keep your EV running 15 years. The original battery will need to be replaced to reach 15 yrs so add additional manufacturing CO pollution to the final number for EV's. Look at it this way, the Model S was first produced in 2012, that was 13 yrs ago. If you had a 2012 Model S with a shot battery, would you replace it knowing how much a used battery pack replacement (including labor and transporting the vehicle to a shop that will perform the replacement) costs and how outdated the vehicle systems, especially the computers are at this point? Now add another 2+ years to reach 15 years of age. IMO, the study would have been much more realistic if they only projected it out 10-12 years, not 15 years.

 

[TTedP]

IMO, the study would have been much more realistic if they only projected it out 10-12 years, not 15 years.

I thought so as well - but maybe 15 years is the average life of a vehicle, through multiple owners, before it's scrapped?

Logic being, owner #3 is OK with a battery at 88% capacity. Same thinking for a gas car, are they replacing the engine at some point or driving it until it stops running? How long will a BEV truly go?

Cool study and graphic nevertheless.

 

[CharonPDX]

Of course the study is assuming you will be able to get and or afford the parts to keep your EV running 15 years. The original battery will need to be replaced to reach 15 yrs so add additional manufacturing CO pollution to the final number for EV's. Look at it this way, the Model S was first produced in 2012, that was 13 yrs ago. If you had a 2012 Model S with a shot battery, would you replace it knowing how much a used battery pack replacement (including labor and transporting the vehicle to a shop that will perform the replacement) costs and how outdated the vehicle systems, especially the computers are at this point? Now add another 2+ years to reach 15 years of age. IMO, the study would have been much more realistic if they only projected it out 10-12 years, not 15 years.

False assumption that "the original battery will need to be replaced."

Yes, some of the earliest mass-production EVs had battery longevity issues. Because they were the early ones. Even by 2016 model years, the batteries are *FAR* more reliable. While the "million mile Tesla" needed multiple battery replacements in its early years, it is still on only its 4th battery pack (at now 1.2 million miles,) with the latest battery pack holding out for over 400,000 miles so far. (As did the previous one.)

The idea that a battery will need replacing in 15 years of normal use is a silly idea now.

And I would argue that the vast majority of vehicles that get battery replacements aren't ones that "the battery completely fails leaving the vehicle undriveable," they're just "significantly reduced range to the point that the owner chooses to replace it." No "transportation of vehicle to the shop" needed.

As for the actual cost? For an early Tesla, to have the battery swapped at an independent shop with a "gently used battery" is about on par with an ICE engine replacement for a similar-era, similar-market car. (Replacing the engine on a 2014 BMW 3-series.) Yes, replacing the engine on a 30 year old Honda Civic is cheap. The Model S wasn't a Honda Civic. Replacing the battery on a Nissan Leaf *IS* cheap.

 

[NeedSumCoffee]

Of course the study is assuming you will be able to get and or afford the parts to keep your EV running 15 years. The original battery will need to be replaced to reach 15 yrs so add additional manufacturing CO pollution to the final number for EV's. Look at it this way, the Model S was first produced in 2012, that was 13 yrs ago. If you had a 2012 Model S with a shot battery, would you replace it knowing how much a used battery pack replacement (including labor and transporting the vehicle to a shop that will perform the replacement) costs and how outdated the vehicle systems, especially the computers are at this point? Now add another 2+ years to reach 15 years of age. IMO, the study would have been much more realistic if they only projected it out 10-12 years, not 15 years.

That’s commonly reported FUD. Early Tesla batteries are claimed to be rated for 300,000-500,000 miles and newer ones are rated for over 1,000,000 miles. It is ridiculous to ever claim you will report batteries every 15 years. Especially because a battery is nothing more than thousands of cells. If one cell goes bad, you don't throw out the whole battery, you just replace that one cell or module. As EVs get older more and more independent repair shops are popping up around the country that will repair a battery for a small fraction of what a replacement costs.

Also, even Tesla doesn't ever install new batteries during a warranty replacement. They install refurbished batteries. So even in your incorrect claim of replacing batteries every 15 years... there is no additional manufacturing CO pollution to install a used component that was taken from another vehicle, repaired and put back in another vehicle. I guess you could add a tiny amount it would take to ship the battery to Lathrop, CA, get repaired and shipped back to a service center.

https://grubermotors.com/services/model-s-main-battery-pack-repair/

 

[emoore]

The cool thing is that the fuel production emissions can get smaller and smaller so the delta will get even larger over time.

 

[beatle]

And I would argue that the vast majority of vehicles that get battery replacements aren't ones that "the battery completely fails leaving the vehicle undriveable," they're just "significantly reduced range to the point that the owner chooses to replace it." No "transportation of vehicle to the shop" needed.

I don't agree with this. Many people will just drive a BEV into the ground until it mysteriously faults and bricks itself. Replacing a five-figure battery because you want a few more miles of range is not something I see too many people doing.

The failure mode is one of the worst parts about having an EV. You get basically no warning before your vehicle is undrivable. This does happen to ICE vehicles as well (timing belt, fuel pump, water pump, oil pump main fuse, etc.) but those getting on in age will tick, smoke, and often warn the driver that they're on borrowed time so it doesn't strand you. Those other instant failure components are also a lot less expensive and are often user-replacable to the point where preventative replacement makes sense sometimes.

That’s commonly reported FUD. Early Tesla batteries are claimed to be rated for 300,000-500,000 miles and newer ones are rated for over 1,000,000 miles. It is ridiculous to ever claim you will report batteries every 15 years. Especially because a battery is nothing more than thousands of cells. If one cell goes bad, you don't throw out the whole battery, you just replace that one cell or module. As EVs get older more and more independent repair shops are popping up around the country that will repair a battery for a small fraction of what a replacement costs.

Also, even Tesla doesn't ever install new batteries during a warranty replacement. They install refurbished batteries. So even in your incorrect claim of replacing batteries every 15 years... there is no additional manufacturing CO pollution to install a used component that was taken from another vehicle, repaired and put back in another vehicle. I guess you could add a tiny amount it would take to ship the battery to Lathrop, CA, get repaired and shipped back to a service center.

https://grubermotors.com/services/model-s-main-battery-pack-repair/

It's interesting you link to Gruber Motors. Gruber Motors was disabling the faulty shorted cells that were causing the entire pack to fault. It works for a period of time until the battery faults again. This isn't necessarily Gruber's fault, but the inability of the BMS to cope with these changes.

Newer packs like the 4680 based units in the Y and CT are not serviceable. They just get shredded. I wonder how other manufacturers' batteries are constructed and whether it's feasible for their cells to be used elsewhere. This could be great for solar installations where the load is much different.

I do think that battery technology has largely improved in the past 10 years, but we won't really know by how much until the current batteries are of age. It seems that they can go the distance most of the time, and degradation is becoming a non-issue, but they may not last as many years. Unlike Indiana Jones, it's the age, not the mileage. I will be very happy to be wrong when the data comes in.

There also really aren't a lot of independent EV repair shops either which is frustrating for someone who wants to keep their vehicle on the road past its warranty, and with Rivian's current service speed, that's a big problem. A lot of that is the OEMs (including Rivian) making it prohibitively expensive to even gain access to the vehicles to diagnose and repair them, and in many cases, the OEMs won't even sell you the parts if you know what needs to be replaced.

 

[CharonPDX]

I don't agree with this. Many people will just drive a BEV into the ground until it mysteriously faults and bricks itself. Replacing a five-figure battery because you want a few more miles of range is not something I see too many people doing.

My point is that "sudden complete battery failure" is an *EXTRAORDINARILY* rare failure mode. Even rarer than "internal combustion engine spontaneously blows up." Just like with an ICE engine needing a complete replacement, it isn't something that should be considered as a "normal concern of owning the car for a long time."

It's not that people are regularly *choosing* to pay tons of money to replace the battery because of lower range - it's that among battery replacements out of warranty, that is the most common reason.

 

[TexasBob]

I thought so as well - but maybe 15 years is the average life of a vehicle, through multiple owners, before it's scrapped?

The average vehicle stays on the road more than 20 years (unless lost to accident). The Average age of a vehicle on the road today is almost 13 years.

 

[beatle]

Where are you getting your data about the most common reason for replacements? The assertion that the majority of people are buying extremely expensive batteries to upgrade their non-failed out-of-warranty EVs makes no sense on principle.

I also don't buy that the failure mode of a battery is not sudden. It is almost always sudden. I'm not saying a low-milage failure happens to most EVs, but that's what happens when they do fail. Since OEMs almost never reveal the failure rate, we're left in the dark to guess based on forum posts, but it's certainly not unheard of either.

 

[TexasBob]

The study does a good job on accounting for changes in grid performance but really overestimates the battery lifetime emissions. It assumes a "virgin" battery and that it is scrapped at end of vehicle life (200k - 250k miles). While the virgin battery assumption is true of nearly all vehicles today, nearly 100% of these batteries will be recycled and most will have a second life before then. IOW, the 5 T of CO2 on the battery build is true for first car but amortized over much more than just the 200k miles.

 

[Mathme]

We have a 15 year old Tesla Roadster Sport and yes the battery isn't as strong as it was new (or even when we bought it). When charged to 80%, it gets shows about 135 mile range which is plenty for the car as it is a local driver only.

The idea that a 15 year old battery is totally shot and needs to be replaced is wrong.

In this instance, IF we were to replace the battery, it would be a pricy thing because they not only replace the pack, they increase the overall size, AND they upgrade the electronics in it.

 

[Gurule92]

Of course the study is assuming you will be able to get and or afford the parts to keep your EV running 15 years. The original battery will need to be replaced to reach 15 yrs so add additional manufacturing CO pollution to the final number for EV's. Look at it this way, the Model S was first produced in 2012, that was 13 yrs ago. If you had a 2012 Model S with a shot battery, would you replace it knowing how much a used battery pack replacement (including labor and transporting the vehicle to a shop that will perform the replacement) costs and how outdated the vehicle systems, especially the computers are at this point? Now add another 2+ years to reach 15 years of age. IMO, the study would have been much more realistic if they only projected it out 10-12 years, not 15 years.

Even if the entire battery needed replaced (which it likely wouldn't, or it would be a recycled one) that'd only add 5 to the total lifetime according to the pic.

 

[Kaiju]

If it's of interest, where you live in particular actually matters a lot as to your lifetime emissions because the biggest chunk of it is emissions from electricity generation. This tool popped up in an Ars Technica article recently allowing you to sift your emissions by county factoring in the types of generation that feed a particular grid.

https://vehicle-emissions-calculator.vercel.app/

The picture changes dramatically in places like the PNW that have a lot of hydro power, and where wind/solar have been popping up.

 

[Ash]

I have 90,240 mi on my 5700 VIN R1T in 3yrs, 3mo. I charge at 8kW to 76% and run it down to 36% daily. I have lost 1 mile of range. At 100% charge it estimates 313 miles, which is technically 20 miles more than it had at delivery. I not concerned about battery degradation. I am a little concerned the rear shock seals are leaking a tiny bit.

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