Redburn Conference - RJ Interview: increased range coming early next year. R2 vehicles are “goosebump inducing"

[Longhorngirl]

Just finished listening to this. I wasn’t listening closely, but the two things that stood out to me was….1. Increased range coming early next year 2. R2 products were described by RJ as “goosebump inducing”. I am really cited about the range improvement.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221128005368/en/

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[SeaGeo]

That makes sense with some info that Wassy has mentioned on Reddit a couple of times. I've been thinking about what they'll do with the max pack with regard to eating up room below the seat. I suspect part of the delay has been to increase efficiency, put the R1T and R1S on a bit of a diet, and then other improvements to fit the entire battery pack in the frame. A ~5% efficiency increase or energy density increase would let them fit the entire pack in the frame and hit their 400 mile goal.

 

[ads75]

I haven't listened to it, but I wouldn't have too much enthusiasm for increased range. Ford Mach E ranges increased by 3 miles to 17 miles (https://insideevs.com/news/555287/2022-ford-mache-more-range/) for 2021 vs 2022. More range is obviously better, but I would not expect anything significant. Rivian could be unlocking more of their battery, or maybe slight software changes, or maybe they will be losing weight for new builds.

I am much more interested in the R2, but I would not expect them to show that for at least 1-2 years. They don't want anything to steal attention from the R1, at least for now.

 

[SeaGeo]

To me that just sounds like par for the course for the last two years. It's unfortunate, but elicits a bit of a shrug from me.

 

[domoplaytime]

I haven't listened to it, but I wouldn't have too much enthusiasm for increased range. Ford Mach E ranges increased by 3 miles to 17 miles (https://insideevs.com/news/555287/2022-ford-mache-more-range/) for 2021 vs 2022. More range is obviously better, but I would not expect anything significant. Rivian could be unlocking more of their battery, or maybe slight software changes, or maybe they will be losing weight for new builds.

I am much more interested in the R2, but I would not expect them to show that for at least 1-2 years. They don't want anything to steal attention from the R1, at least for now.

Rivian has a much bigger battery pack, so improvements to preconditioning might make a bigger difference. Or maybe in Conserve mode the throttle gets remapped from LeadFooter to HyperMiler.

 

[Guy]

I haven't listened to it, but I wouldn't have too much enthusiasm for increased range. Ford Mach E ranges increased by 3 miles to 17 miles (https://insideevs.com/news/555287/2022-ford-mache-more-range/) for 2021 vs 2022. More range is obviously better, but I would not expect anything significant. Rivian could be unlocking more of their battery, or maybe slight software changes, or maybe they will be losing weight for new builds.

I am much more interested in the R2, but I would not expect them to show that for at least 1-2 years. They don't want anything to steal attention from the R1, at least for now.

The R2 won’t be shown for quite some time since production is not until 2026 so why show something and get potential reservations too early. I could see a late 2024 reveal and reservation process.

 

[SANZC02]

I guess the question there is was it a delay or lost production for the chips. If it was just a delay then they would have the capacity on the lines to make it up but if it is lost production for the chips that is more of an impact.

 

[Arky]

That makes sense with some info that Wassy has mentioned on Reddit a couple of times. I've been thinking about what they'll do with the max pack with regard to eating up room below the seat. I suspect part of the delay has been to increase efficiency, put the R1T and R1S on a bit of a diet, and then other improvements to fit the entire battery pack in the frame. A ~5% efficiency increase or energy density increase would let them fit the entire pack in the frame and hit their 400 mile goal.

Frankly I'd be happy with it fixing the vampire drain. If it sits a month it will drain the whole pack with a 0 mile range. Don't have that problem with my Subaru...

 

[SeaGeo]

Frankly I'd be happy with it fixing the vampire drain. If it sits a month it will drain the whole pack with a 0 mile range. Don't have that problem with my Subaru...

Your Subaru also doesn't do anything while it's sitting there. The R1 is phoning home every once in awhile, it's available for you to ping from the app, and it's managing battery temps to protect the battery.

They need to continue to improve drain, which they've acknowledged, but it's not an appropriate comparison.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

The R2 won’t be shown for quite some time since production is not until 2026 so why show something and get potential reservations too early. I could see a late 2024 reveal and reservation process.

When the availability was planned for 2025 they had indicated that the reveal would be early 2023 for the R2 line. It remains to be seen whether they will keep that timeline in spite of the pushed back availability or push back the reveal as well. I could certainly see them using the reveal of the R2 vehicles as a way to deflect negative press if/when they have to do a recall for something like the half shafts.

If they do retain the early 2023 timeline I certainly don't expect any pricing to go along with it.

 

[Arky]

Your Subaru also doesn't do anything while it's sitting there. The R1 is phoning home every once in awhile, it's available for you to ping from the app, and it's managing battery temps to protect the battery.

My phone also does that without burning 4kWh a day. There's actually no conceivable way I can use said phone (or my laptop even) that will take that much power in a day. 25% of my daily energy use is going to an unused vehicle in my garage, it's asinine.

If there's any 'battery management' that needs to occur in a 40-80f shaded environment than the system is poorly calibrated, those are ideal storage conditions.

 

[mikehmb]

I’m nowhere near 4kWh of vampire drain per day. 1% has been about max (which IMO is still unacceptable). Anyone actually seeing those numbers still? (note: GearGuard is Off)

 

[Guy]

When the availability was planned for 2025 they had indicated that the reveal would be early 2023 for the R2 line. It remains to be seen whether they will keep that timeline in spite of the pushed back availability or push back the reveal as well. I could certainly see them using the reveal of the R2 vehicles as a way to deflect negative press if/when they have to do a recall for something like the half shafts.

If they do retain the early 2023 timeline I certainly don't expect any pricing to go along with it.

I would expect they would learn from the experience of showing the R1 in 2018 and only starting manufacturing three years later. If they show to early then the design will look old and there will be less hype in 2026 when it actually goes into production. I agree pricing (and I assume a reservation list) will be 2025, one year ahead of the launch.

 

[ryanpei]

Frankly I'd be happy with it fixing the vampire drain. If it sits a month it will drain the whole pack with a 0 mile range. Don't have that problem with my Subaru...

Ironic you would name Subaru here...a company literally being sued for vampire battery drain.

Unnecessary needling aside, I have very little drain. Generally (if I don't plug in) my morning battery is within 1 percent of where I left it the night before, even when I preheat for a couple of minutes.
I find it to be similar to the MY Tesla.
However, it also seems like there is a lot of variability on that, so if some folks are seeing more then there is definitely work to be done.

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