Ketchum: Wait for LiDAR? - The Rivian R2 LiDAR story isn’t what you think

[Eric9610]

You realize they had to completely rethink their approach multiple times though right? The last major rewrite from the ground up was in late 2023, just 2.5 years ago. Rivian (and others) have the advantage of not having to figure out what approach is right. They just need the data now.
Just like how grok came out of nowhere and caught up with ChatGPT and Gemini and many ways very quickly because the approach to LLMs had been figured out already.

LOL... The top version of Grok is not even ranked in the top 10 for performance in LLM... 3 versions old Claud and GPT still crush it. It does however preform better than Gemini.

Tesla rewrites the software so frequently because they are stubborn and the process in not thought out correctly from a foundational level. The advantages other companies have is not to follow the mistakes Tesal makes. Its interesting that Tesla plans to add LiDar to achieve L4 (FSD).

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[NinjaWrap]

LOL... The top version of Grok is not even ranked in the top 10 for performance in LLM... 3 versions old Claud and GPT still crush it. It does however preform better than Gemini.

Tesla rewrites the software so frequently because they are stubborn and the process in not thought out correctly from a foundational level. The advantages other companies have is not to follow the mistakes Tesal makes. Its interesting that Tesla plans to add LiDar to achieve L4 (FSD).

I know it's not the top, but it can do a good majority of what others can do and can relatively late. They scooped up a bunch of people who had worked at other companies and played catch up pretty well for being so late.

Rivian also has a ton of talent and a lot of it former Tesla employees. Our former mobile service tech worked for Tesla for over a decade, got fired for no good reason, and is working for Rivian now. Tesla begged him to come back a few months later and he said no.

Tesla has done so many layoffs for no good reason (I know a few) and made so many employees feel burnt out, not to mention the ones who just don't like Elon that have left, that there are a ton of people who are amazingly smart just floating around.

 

[rvnxyz001]

Tesla has done so many layoffs for no good reason (I know a few) and made so many

Tesla has had plenty of layoffs, but Rivian has been doing the same since at least 2020. For example, in 2024 Rivian cut 10% of its salaried workforce, and the process was pretty bad because employees had to wait overnight to find out whether they still had a job. So Rivian is not exactly a great counterexample here...

 

[Jeremy3292]

For those of us who work in corporate America and specifically in finance, layoffs are a normal occurrence in every company. Reducing headcount is the simplest, quickest, and easiest way to cut costs. Everyone is expendable in corporate America. Hard to increase revenue, hard to optimize manufacturing, hard to find savings, but easy to cut heads. No one is immune to it, which is why the outrage when reducing headcount in government, higher education, etc. is ironic to those of us who deal with it every day. Sad, but true and just how the world works.

 

[rvnxyz001]

Sad, but true and just how the world works.

Not "the world" Mostly the U.S. and its corporate culture, where treating employees as disposable has become normalized. Maybe that mindset, along with weak worker protections and a limited safety net, is part of why the U.S. keeps falling behind other wealthy countries on quality of life.

 

[Jeremy3292]

I just got back from my demo drive in Duncan, SC. FWIW and those can take it with a grain of salt if they chose, but the guy I spoke with said LIDAR is being pushed to closer to mid 2027 as they pull forward forest green, borealis, and coastal cloud. I inquired not about LIDAR but about forest green and coastal cloud as that is what I am waiting for (have order invite already). He said those are being added August 1st to production and be on the lookout around August 11th to be able to order them. So he wasn't trying to sell me on not waiting for LIDAR bc I said I'm already buying lol.

This wasn't a normal sales center worker either as he is driving R2 around the southeast for pop-up demo drives, as was in Duncan this week. He said the local workers never know anything until they are told to get ready for deliveries. Those may remember forest green and coastal cloud were originally scheduled for late 2026 and borealis just said "coming 2027" at launch. They quickly changed that around as it is today.

Like I said take it with a grain of salt if you choose I'm just providing information.

 

[Eric9610]

I just got back from my demo drive in Duncan, SC. FWIW and those can take it with a grain of salt if they chose, but the guy I spoke with said LIDAR is being pushed to closer to mid 2027 as they pull forward forest green, borealis, and coastal cloud. I inquired not about LIDAR but about forest green and coastal cloud as that is what I am waiting for (have order invite already). He said those are being added August 1st to production and be on the lookout around August 11th to be able to order them. So he wasn't trying to sell me on not waiting for LIDAR bc I said I'm already buying lol.

This wasn't a normal sales center worker either as he is driving R2 around the southeast for pop-up demo drives, as was in Duncan this week. He said the local workers never know anything until they are told to get ready for deliveries. Those may remember forest green and coastal cloud were originally scheduled for late 2026 and borealis just said "coming 2027" at launch. They quickly changed that around as it is today.

Like I said take it with a grain of salt if you choose I'm just providing information.

Most likely that's when it could start production and real deliveries will be end of 27.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Most likely that's when it could start production and real deliveries will be end of 27.

From a manufacturing perspective it just makes so much sense to come with MY28. I’m supposing it will take til then just to be fully ramped in R2, not to mention all the different trims they’re adding between now and then.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

For those of us who work in corporate America and specifically in finance, layoffs are a normal occurrence in every company. Reducing headcount is the simplest, quickest, and easiest way to cut costs. Everyone is expendable in corporate America. Hard to increase revenue, hard to optimize manufacturing, hard to find savings, but easy to cut heads. No one is immune to it, which is why the outrage when reducing headcount in government, higher education, etc. is ironic to those of us who deal with it every day. Sad, but true and just how the world works.

I think they always cut the sales teams first. They can always hire them back later if they choose to reapply. Unfortunately It’s a dog-eat-dog world.

 

[Torrey]

I think they always cut the sales teams first. They can always hire them back later if they choose to reapply. Unfortunately It’s a dog-eat-dog world.

From a manufacturing perspective it just makes so much sense to come with MY28. I’m supposing it will take til then just to be fully ramped in R2, not to mention all the different trims they’re adding between now and then.

I test drove R2 Autonomy+ last week and asked about LIDAR. The Rivian rep said that they were recently told by corporate that it will not be available until MY28.

 

[rodhx]

I just got back from my demo drive in Duncan, SC. FWIW and those can take it with a grain of salt if they chose, but the guy I spoke with said LIDAR is being pushed to closer to mid 2027 as they pull forward forest green, borealis, and coastal cloud. I inquired not about LIDAR but about forest green and coastal cloud as that is what I am waiting for (have order invite already). He said those are being added August 1st to production and be on the lookout around August 11th to be able to order them. So he wasn't trying to sell me on not waiting for LIDAR bc I said I'm already buying lol.

This wasn't a normal sales center worker either as he is driving R2 around the southeast for pop-up demo drives, as was in Duncan this week. He said the local workers never know anything until they are told to get ready for deliveries. Those may remember forest green and coastal cloud were originally scheduled for late 2026 and borealis just said "coming 2027" at launch. They quickly changed that around as it is today.

Like I said take it with a grain of salt if you choose I'm just providing information.

Yeah, in addition to the age-old truth that "salespeople" often are the last to know anything, there is little chance adding a paint color to the rotation or bolting in different color interiors is going to impact lidar implementation. Paint & interior are simple changes to existing processes with the delay being parts/supplies.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Yeah, in addition to the age-old truth that "salespeople" often are the last to know anything, there is little chance adding a paint color to the rotation or bolting in different color interiors is going to impact lidar implementation. Paint & interior are simple changes to existing processes with the delay being parts/supplies.

LIDAR and paint/interior colors are unrelated and simply business decisions.

 

[NinjaWrap]

FWIW and those can take it with a grain of salt if they chose, but the guy I spoke with said LIDAR is being pushed to closer to mid 2027

This will make it much harder for me. I was going to sell my truck in a couple months and then buy with RAP1/lidar end of year/early next. I can't go almost a year without a car.

If I am going to buy without RAP1 then I could go ahead and order next month...

 

[sparked]

This will make it much harder for me. I was going to sell my truck in a couple months and then buy with RAP1/lidar end of year/early next. I can't go almost a year without a car.

If I am going to buy without RAP1 then I could go ahead and order next month...

Sales people are likely not informed about this at all. Wait for a Rivian executive to say something more than Late 2026 to early 2027. That's the only credible info we have so far.

 

[Eric9610]

My suspicion is that the RAP1 is the bottleneck and can't get allocated enough fab production.

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