Ketchum: Wait for LiDAR? - The Rivian R2 LiDAR story isn’t what you think

[shandering]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tesla_Autopilot_crashes

From AI web summary of "Tesla FSD fatalities"

As of October 2025, there have been a total of 65 reported fatalities involving Tesla vehicles. Among these, 2 fatalities occurred while the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system was engaged.

Tesla reports a fatal crash rate of 5.6 deaths per billion miles driven for its vehicles, which is higher than the national U.S. average of 2.8 deaths per billion miles across all vehicles

That's misleading,. There were two deaths from "FSD" but they were basically autopilot as FSD was in beta and they used autopilot on freeways. FSD switched to neural networks on highways with the more publicly available releases. That's when most of the FSD miles were racked up and nobody died

The two autopilot/FSD deaths, one was not at fault (a truck pulled out in front of a car going 70mph) and the other was a sun glare issue that is obviously not a problem for FSD if you use proper neural networks

Also you should probably do better research. The death rate is close to 12 for every billion miles. FSD having 0 across 12 billion miles is very good. Across 12 billion miles close to 144 people should have died.

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[shandering]

I appreciate the passion you bring to the defense of Tesla's FSD, but you might want to link to sources in support of your position. Using hyperbole undercuts your argument; for instance, to achieve even 1,000,000 miles of testing would take one test vehicle 2.85 years if driven at an average speed of 40 mph, 24/7 non-stop, even for charging, or swapping out tires/drivers/etc. If we assume a fleet of 10 test vehicles, and given battery capacity, a 4/hr day driving, 5 days a week, non-stop at an average speed of 40 mph, then it would take about two years to achieve one million miles.

But in Europe, they measure distance in kilometers.

you do know how many test vehicles tesla has? It's in the thousands

Right now they have manufactured well over 1000 cybercabs and they are driving them. Tesla even last year was rumored to have employed 700 test drivers in california alone

The RDW tested for 1.5 years and they drove 1.8 million kilometers which is a little over 1 million miles.

Tesla is a big company that employs a lot of people. RDW did their own testing and then tesla did demo rides from various service centers in europe

 

[LevelHeaded]

Let’s get back on track, this has become a weird Tesla propaganda thread instead of a discussion about Rivian’s self-driving technology and computers!

 

[Bullwinkle]

LE also includes radar.

 

[Bullwinkle]

I agree with your business perspective. Rivian doesn’t want to create early adopter launch customers without RAP1+LiDar and those with it 6 months later. I think they’ll hit their 25K goal by the end of the year and that will be it for the launch package. The Premium might be the first R2 with RAP1+LiDar, but I’m sure there will be a non-Launch Performance, too.

As for autonomy, I’ve tried recent builds of FSD on my Model 3 and it’s just not for me. It makes me more stressed out babysitting the thing than driving myself. I’m also afraid if I did subscribe to it and got used it I’d grow complacent. Then if I got into a situation where I’d have to take over I might not react in time.

It’s just not worth it to me. It would have to be foolproof first. Not to mention that I like to drive. All I need is advanced cruise control with lane centering to give me a break on long trips. I guess I’m old school, but I do love new tech. I just don’t think it’s fully baked yet.

I like to drive vs fly when I have time. I just drove our BMW X5 50e to our vacation home in Steamboat for the 4th. From there, I drove my kid back to Bozeman (saw Houndmouth at a little venue in the mountains), then home to Minneapolis. 2500ish miles--a lot of interstate over 3 weeks. BMWs hands free lane centering is very good, and you can change lanes by looking at the side view mirror or using the turn signal--pretty equivalent to R2. You do have to keep your eyes on the road, or it starts making a fuss. My point is that when I bought the car, I was not sure the system would be that useful to me. Within a few hundred miles, I realised I loved it. Even this relatively simple system really reduces fatigue and makes highway driving more relaxing.

This has convinced me that autonomy + is a really desirable feature for me on longer drives, but my guess is I won't have the car park itself or drive me to the grocery store. My guess is that lidar will not matter much to capability over the next few years. I do think more processing power may be useful in the 2nd half of the car's lifespan, but that will be a different owner's problem.

 

[Bullwinkle]

We don't know if it's better. Adaptive suspension doesn't always feel better. It can be stiffer even in its softest mode, for example, which some people may not like. It could also be a very cheap system, while a regular suspension might be better and more reliable.

I doubt this is true

 

[Bullwinkle]

While RJ states that supervised point to point driving is coming to all GEN 2 Rivian vehicles, I would not trust any camera – only system with such a task due to the inherent limitations and failure modes inherent in such a system.

RJ also claims that the LiDAR - equipped R2 vehicles will not offer any additional benefits to customers, at least initially.

however, it is also true that a lidar equipped vehicle has the potential to gain much more accurate and reliable sensor awareness of its surroundings and is less likely to be fooled or miss a variety of objects that a camera, only system may fail to register. You can see a number of YouTube videos, where Tesla‘s camera only system has caused accidents, some fatal, while in auto pilot or FSD.

The belief that AI can quickly code a safe self driving algorithm is a misunderstanding of the limitations of AI and how it works. Specifically, AI recognizes patterns and builds only on past experiences. Its reasoning capabilities are limited and its ability to anticipate possible future events is effectively near zero.

I might come to trust a lidar- equipped vehicle with self driving capabilities only when that software has been proven safe and effective after several years of real world testing.

I think it’s also important to remember the many utopian promises made by our tech friends over the preceding decades and temper our expectations and enthusiasm based on the history of how those promises have panned out.

Tesla's do not have radar anymore.

 

[mferring]

Yes, and later Gen3 hardware will bring you to your destination during a foggy night more reliable with less involvement from your side than current hardware.

I know Lidar will help when there are poor conditions such as foggy, heavy rain, etc. But I have to say, at least for now, there is no way I am letting UHF drive during such conditions.....or when stopping at a toll booth, etc.

I would be happy if the UHF with some point to point basically worked in reasonably good weather. From everything I have heard, I think the LE will likely do that.

 

[Bullwinkle]

I know Lidar will help when there are poor conditions such as foggy, heavy rain, etc. But I have to say, at least for now, there is no way I am letting UHF drive during such conditions.....or when stopping at a toll booth, etc.

I would be happy if the UHF with some point to point basically worked in reasonably good weather. From everything I have heard, I think the LE will likely do that.

Really good point.

 

[thrillseeker1234]

The free "$2,500 Autonomy+" still would not push me toward the Launch Edition. Even after the Launch Edition is gone and that offer disappears, I would rather wait for the newer hardware.

Long term, Autonomy+ on the launch hardware may not be worth much once the updated R2 arrives. Rivian’s own officials previously said cameras are not enough in some situations, so I am not comfortable relying on this system anyway.

Missing the free offer does not affect my decision. The potential resale hit on the early hardware matters much more than $2,500...

You are buying a car to drive, not buying a car to speculate how much you will lose when you resell. All EVs depreciate. deal with it. lmao.

 

[thrillseeker1234]

I've gone back and forth on waiting for Gen 3 vs. buying a Launch Package

I personally landed on Launch Package for my needs and personal speculations on the future

For my needs, I don't really care about my car being able to drive itself point-to-point everywhere all the time. I love driving. I definitely value anything to make road trips easier though. And the Gen 2 hardware will indeed give an already really good experience.

The only thing that could make it much better for me is true eyes off unsupervised driving, especially for long periods of time on road trips. To allow me to read, do work, text, etc. I.e minimum Level 3 autonomy.

My issue: I just can't see Level 3 autonomy coming anytime in the next 12-24 months even on Gen 3. Maybe I'll look back on this post soon and laugh at myself. But there are so many hurdles...

1. Obviously, the technology hurdle. Rivian needs to solve the software problem with a legitimately reliable and safe unsupervised experience for consumer vehicles. Nobody has done that unsupervised in the US — not even Tesla. They have a small handful of no-driver cars in Texas.

It's really freaking hard. This^ hurdle alone would be incredible if Rivian actually could deliver anything in the next 1-2 years. Though to Rivian's credit, they have been remarkably good at delivering on their promises relatively on-time for the most part, up to this point.

2. Next, the regulatory hurdles. Rivian will need to apply and get approved to enable Level 3 unsupervised in geographies and situations. This requires approval at a state by state level. Mercedes only does it in a limited number of states, only slow driving on highways. I don't know what the odds are Rivian will get approved anytime soon in Oregon where I live, for meaningful use cases beyond slow driving on highways.

3. Also, insurance hurdles. For Rivian to offer unsupervised Level 3 driving, they take on the liability themselves. Massive insurance costs to do that. For an unprofitable startup, this aint easy.

4. Then there's the brand hurdles. I hate to say it, but at some point as Rivian scales, there will almost certainly be an accident involving a serious personal injury — even on the supervised autonomy suite, not to mention any unsupervised Level 3 systems. When this happens, there can be some high-profile PR and brand risks to Rivian that could cause it to slow roll the expansion of any unsupervised autonomy features.

When I consider all of those^ hurdles to get to an unsupervised Level 3 autonomy experience that would be actually meaningfully valuable, I'm skeptical. I'm guessing there will be more supplementary add-on features before things like taking eyes completely off the road for extended periods of time.

Again I could be totally wrong.

But in the meantime, I'll take $2,500 savings on regular Autonomy+ suite, free Tow Package and earlier delivery with the Launch Package.

You are very accurate on all the points. My wife's family runs hardware manufacture business in Taiwan and they supply most major industrial computers to major companies out here in the US. She told me anything related to automotive, it takes minimally 2 years for customers to even see it because of the law/safety hurdles you mentioned.

So yes...the Gen 3/RAP 1 that people are sooo excited about and couldn't ditch gen 2 fast enough won't be at the capacity people are hoping for in the next 3-4 years at least. Tesla had millions of cars running on the road collecting data on their HW3/4 cars, it still took them what...7-8 years? to get to this point. Do you really think Rivian can get to what Tesla was 4 years ago with Gen 3 HW in just 1-2 year? Not to mention Tesla has some of the top engineers working for the shithead.

 

[NinjaWrap]

Tesla had millions of cars running on the road collecting data on their HW3/4 cars, it still took them what...7-8 years? to get to this point.

You realize they had to completely rethink their approach multiple times though right? The last major rewrite from the ground up was in late 2023, just 2.5 years ago. Rivian (and others) have the advantage of not having to figure out what approach is right. They just need the data now.
Just like how grok came out of nowhere and caught up with ChatGPT and Gemini and many ways very quickly because the approach to LLMs had been figured out already.

 

[NinjaWrap]

FSD having 0 across 12 billion miles is very good. Across 12 billion miles close to 144 people should have died.

That’s FSD + supervisor combo. Two pilots. FSD is very close but there is a reason they still require people to pay attention. It can still mess up.

 

[rvnxyz001]

You are buying a car to drive, not buying a car to speculate how much you will lose when you resell. All EVs depreciate. deal with it. lmao.

You’re arguing against a claim nobody made. Nobody called the car an investment, the point was that outdated hardware can increase depreciation. "All EVs depreciate" does not address that point. It only confirms you misunderstood it.

 

[skyguyscott]

Depreciation is one factor among many when deciding on which vehicle to purchase. For those who plan on driving the vehicle for five years or less, depreciation is a more heavily weighted factor in calculating the financial impact of their decision.

But if you really wanted to minimize the financial impact of a vehicle purchase, it always seemed to me the most savvy strategy is to plan to drive the vehicle for a decade or so and amortize the cost over that longer timeframe. After 10 years, the difference in depreciation amongst vehicles can diminish, discounting the rare case of special collectible vehicles that might actually appreciate in value over the long-term.

If you go into a vehicle purchase looking for something that is going to last you 10 years, factors like reliability and quality become much more heavily weighted than depreciation. I plan on driving my R1T for 10 years or so, so we’ll see how that works out.

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