? Rivian IPO S1 Filing - reveals preorder numbers, R1S delivery date, Autonomous Subscription Fee & more...

[AndroidAppBundle]

My preorder # guess was pretty spot on (50k). I arrived at the number by extrapolating from the previous figures quoted.

With that said; I am saddened the preorder number is only 50k. I think it speaks to the finite size of the market for 80-100k off-road capable SUV and trucks. Previously I would have guessed the Rivian customer is likely a former Jeep customer, looking for an EV equivalent to what they already drive. This might still be the case for some; but I suspect the target customer is probably a current/former Land Rover/Range Rover owner.

It is also disappointing to read in to revenue projections, and see they see themselves 100% beholden to Amazon. I am an Amazon shareholder. I think the Amazon vans are great. But I don't want Amazon having this much influence over this brand. The revenue, and seed investments from Amazon look to have massive influence in the brand, and will play a larger role than the customers voice, when we ask for support for Android Auto, Spotify, Pandora, Google Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Apple CarPlay, etc


Disappointed to see RJ only making 1.3mn in total compensation. Rivian should pay RJ more. Food for thought; Elon Musk's younger brother gets paid more (to do less)....as a board member of Tesla.

The highest paid individual in your automotive company needs to make more than the board member at your competing automotive company. RJ could make more by quitting Rivian, and just being a board member at Tesla......

Which blows my mind. If Tesla felt any threat from Rivian....lol

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[E.S.]

I will say it's an issue for people who live in apartments, Condos, or areas where they don't have their own parking space.

So.... almost everyone I know in Seattle.

IMO level 2 charging in urban environments is a bigger hurdle than the dcfc infrastructure.

It will not surprise me that we'll be seeing a lot of communities add EV only parking spots and place chargers there for EV owners to charge (a feature they can easily off-set with all the association fees places like this tend to charge every 3 months or so). Can't say I haven't thought up of a clever solution for non-community Apartment dwellers due to all the regulations the city/state may require. That's a thing the local city will have to tackle.

 

[timf]

With that said; I am saddened the preorder number is only 50k. I think it speaks to the finite size of the market for 80-100k off-road capable SUV and trucks. Previously I would have guessed the Rivian customer is likely a former Jeep customer, looking for an EV equivalent to what they already drive. This might still be the case for some; but I suspect the target customer is probably a current/former Land Rover/Range Rover owner.

I think the low preorder number is more attributable to Rivian doing little marketing and having low brand recognition. Very few people are aware Rivian exists since Tesla and the legacy automakers get all the press coverage when it comes to EV trucks. The real question is what can they do to differentiate themselves once those other brands start delivering their EV trucks? It's entirely possible they will only ever cater to a niche market of off-roaders. Hopefully once production ramps up they will start generating more attention.

 

[jessefive]

I'm really curious how much that number changed with the media blitz this past week. I suspect the preorders are growing rapidly

 

[LoneStar]

Rivian could catch the world's eye by spending a bit of their Billions in cash on a couple of Superbowl ads - akin to what Apple did decades ago.

 

[Longhorngirl]

I see you plate and raise it ...

Nice! I tried to get RIVIAN, but someone already beat me to it.

 

[fastwheels]

I see you plate and raise it ...

I'll call.

 

[Longhorngirl]

It is also disappointing to read in to revenue projections, and see they see themselves 100% beholden to Amazon. I am an Amazon shareholder. I think the Amazon vans are great. But I don't want Amazon having this much influence over this brand. The revenue, and seed investments from Amazon look to have massive influence in the brand, and will play a larger role than the customers voice, when we ask for support for Android Auto, Spotify, Pandora, Google Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Apple CarPlay, etc

Hmmmm.....No CarPlay, no Android Auto...maybe Amazon is bringing back the Fire Phone? Want to buy a RivIan? Well, you need to buy a Fire phone too!!

No NetFlix? Well, you better get an Amazon Prime membership, if you don’t have one because only Amazon Prime Video will be available.

 

[Maverick]

I'll call.

NEW YORK.... Holy grail ....I got the nutts pay up ... Nice get though. Hat tip ... I think the only one that could beat New York is California or Illinois....

 

[Scott]

With that said; I am saddened the preorder number is only 50k. I think it speaks to the finite size of the market for 80-100k off-road capable SUV and trucks. Previously I would have guessed the Rivian customer is likely a former Jeep customer, looking for an EV equivalent to what they already drive. This might still be the case for some; but I suspect the target customer is probably a current/former Land Rover/Range Rover owner.

Land Rover sold around 570k vehicles globally in 2019. Subaru sold 700k vehicles just in the US in the same year. Jeep sold over 900k globally in 2019.

The market for adventure vehicle brands is massive. Both at the high end and the low end. I fully expect the R1 to tackle the Land Rover and high end Jeep markets, and the R2 series to drift down to the lower end Jeeps and the Subaru market. EV makers have good reason to start at the higher end of the market they want to eventually address.

It is also disappointing to read in to revenue projections, and see they see themselves 100% beholden to Amazon. I am an Amazon shareholder. I think the Amazon vans are great. But I don't want Amazon having this much influence over this brand. The revenue, and seed investments from Amazon look to have massive influence in the brand, and will play a larger role than the customers voice, when we ask for support for Android Auto, Spotify, Pandora, Google Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Apple CarPlay, etc

I view this differently. The Amazon contract gives them predictable revenue if they can execute reasonably well. This is a massive advantage over Lucid and other EV start ups (and Tesla from when they started).

I think people here drastically overestimate the impact of Amazon on the software choices made by Rivian. Sure Alexa is included because of it, but they needed a voice assistant anyway, and I'd rather them use one from a tech company than try and make their own. But Carplay and AA aren't included because of things having nothing to do with Amazon IMO. They simply want:
1. to control the UI completely
2. protect possible future revenue streams from infotainment updates and content that Carplay / AA would likely hinder

I am pretty sure Amazon, as a shareholder, would rather Carplay / AA be included and have Rivian succeed than have it left out if it hinders Rivian in the marketplace. (note I wish AA / Carplay were there, but I don't think it will hold Rivian back)

 

[Aroohoo]

With that said; I am saddened the preorder number is only 50k. I think it speaks to the finite size of the market for 80-100k off-road capable SUV and trucks. Previously I would have guessed the Rivian customer is likely a former Jeep customer, looking for an EV equivalent to what they already drive. This might still be the case for some; but I suspect the target customer is probably a current/former Land Rover/Range Rover owner.

While more pre orders would have been nice, 40k as of September 30th isn't all that bad given the lack of brand recognition. As they start to advertise to the general public and get more cars on the road they should start to see more sales. Think of the Kia brand...really an after thought, if at all, for the general public because they were horrendous in the past (could still say their dealers are crap...), but when they came out with the Telluride it was positive press and people bought it like hot cakes.

I truly think that once the general public sees r1s on the streets, the demand will go up. Also, a CUV form factor would print money in the US.

Although there is some overlap with the original Land Rover brand, I think the current Land Rover brand is more aligned to luxury people hauler, so not sure if the current Rivian brand positioning competes with the land Rover brand.

That said, although Rivian is positioning itself as an outdoor life style brand, that is a limited market size, so I would expect them to try to leverage that aspirational life style to sell to affluent urban/suburban families, not unlike land Rover.

One final note, I might be having it confused with the f-150 lightning, but I had it in my head that a good number of R1T orders are from people that don't currently have a truck. I'd that is the case, it may support the hypothesis that Rivian's potential customers are more drawn to an aspirational lifestyle as opposed to being currently engaged in those activities.

 

[jjswan33]

While more pre orders would have been nice, 40k as of September 30th isn't all that bad given the lack of brand recognition. As they start to advertise to the general public and get more cars on the road they should start to see more sales. Think of the Kia brand...really an after thought, if at all, for the general public because they were horrendous in the past (could still say their dealers are crap...), but when they came out with the Telluride it was positive press and people bought it like hot cakes.

I truly think that once the general public sees r1s on the streets, the demand will go up. Also, a CUV form factor would print money in the US.

Although there is some overlap with the original Land Rover brand, I think the current Land Rover brand is more aligned to luxury people hauler, so not sure if the current Rivian brand positioning competes with the land Rover brand.

That said, although Rivian is positioning itself as an outdoor life style brand, that is a limited market size, so I would expect them to try to leverage that aspirational life style to sell to affluent urban/suburban families, not unlike land Rover.

One final note, I might be having it confused with the f-150 lightning, but I had it in my head that a good number of R1T orders are from people that don't currently have a truck. I'd that is the case, it may support the hypothesis that Rivian's potential customers are more drawn to an aspirational lifestyle as opposed to being currently engaged in those activities.

Another way to think about it is they have ~50k orders. Enough orders to use all of their manufacturing capacity through 2022 as they ramp. If things go well with their roll out they will get a lot of new orders during 2022.

Also if they roll out their cheaper truck and any other planned vehicles they can add additional capacity and TAM.

If Rivian wants to be successful they have to continue building their brand, have a successful vehicle rollout including service etc then orders should accelerate.

 

[MIG]

I will say it's an issue for people who live in apartments, Condos, or areas where they don't have their own parking space.

So.... almost everyone I know in Seattle.

IMO level 2 charging in urban environments is a bigger hurdle than the dcfc infrastructure.

As usual, Europe is already figuring things out. There's a start-up in the UK that's adapting street lights to incorporate charging and as early as 2014 I saw streetside chargers in Paris.

 

[MoreTrout]

That said, although Rivian is positioning itself as an outdoor life style brand, that is a limited market size, so I would expect them to try to leverage that aspirational life style to sell to affluent urban/suburban families, not unlike land Rover.

Limited market size??? There are 45 million Americans who hunt and fish. That's more than live in the 10 largest cities. And they spend over $75 billion/year doing it. The halo launch vehicles may not get that much of the market, but if they can develop future vehicles in more competitive price ranges it is hardly a limited market.

 

[Aroohoo]

Limited market size??? There are 45 million Americans who hunt and fish. That's more than live in the 10 largest cities. And they spend over $75 billion/year doing it. The halo launch vehicles may not get that much of the market, but if they can develop future vehicles in more competitive price ranges it is hardly a limited market.

Its not my intent to get into an argument. For whatever it is worth, I am one of those 45 million that does both (and a minority where I currently live, fishing is much more common than hunting and I haven't run into more than a handful of people that do both).

I think we are saying the same thing with regards to growing their future products. There is a huge market for these vehicles, but that market isn't necessarily driven by those that actually need the utility that trucks and 'real' SUVs provide. If Rivan's sales mirror other trucks and SUVs, the vehicles will rarely be used for what they were designed for.

This article (please ignore the title and their underlying argument, and focus on the survey data summary from Strategic Vision) covers that the vast majority of truck owners rarely use their vehicles for outdoor recreation:

75 percent of truck owners use their truck for towing one time a year or less (meaning, never). Nearly 70 percent of truck owners go off-road one time a year or less. And a full 35 percent of truck owners use their truck for hauling—putting something in the bed, its ostensible raison d’être—once a year or less.

So what do people actually like about trucks? According to Edwards, the answer is counterintuitive. Truck drivers use their trucks very much like other car owners: for commuting to and from work, presumably alone. The thing that most distinguishes truck owners from those of other vehicles is their sheer love of driving. “The highest indexed use among truck owners is pleasure driving,” says Edwards. Truck drivers use their vehicles this way fully twice as often as the industry average. “This is the freedom that trucks offer,” says Edwards.

So, while Rivian will have sales to some outdoor enthusiasts, if their sales profiles are similar to what is out there today, the majority of their sales won't come from those people.

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