NY Times Interview: The Road Ahead for E.V.s with RJ Scaringe [9/25/24]

[Hereforthesnacks]

Yeah you can get a bottom dollar ICE, but since the market isn't centered on those cars it doesn't much matter. The sort of people who need to buy the bottom of the market probably shouldn't buy an EV yet anyways, they won't have a place to charge it. There is a ton of headroom in the EV market without addressing the entry level consumer.

Second, name a vehicle today that doesn't have quality control issues, I'll wait. The Hummer EV had major issues, Ford had stop sales on the lightning and I notice you drive a Bronco, still have the same engine it originally came with? Tons of those have had to be replaced.

In fact, Ford has much lower reliability than Rivian does. The EV transition will come in waves, first with the tech focused and more affluent early adopters then the mainstream middle class buyer THEN the bottom of the market and remaining holdouts. I think RJ is spot on that meeting the sub 50K dollar price point with an appealing EV would go a long way towards adoption.

Tesla has two sub $50k cars available. And their quality is fine.

Same with Chevy. Kia quality is good, but their service is abysmal.

Simply providing a $50k EV as a growth plan will not work. There needs to be more to it.

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[Donald Stanfield]

Tesla has two sub $50k cars available. And their quality is fine.

Same with Chevy. Kia quality is good, but their service is abysmal.

Simply providing a $50k EV as a growth plan will not work. There needs to be more to it.

I wasn't referring to the quality as the detriment to Tesla vehicles. The CEO of Tesla is the most significant current downside to Tesla vehicles. I don't care for Tesla's styling and their interior designs but I think Elon is making some questionable decisions and avoiding their products seems like the best way forward in that regard.

Chevy's new EVs are lackluster in range and specs. The EV9 is pretty impressive for its price point0K. Of course, simply making an EV that costs under 50K isn't a magical solution, and RJ's statement implies applying Rivian's innovation and performance to a vehicle under 50K, but isn't sub 5 not simply producing something to meet a price point.

The target for the R2 is a pretty smart one. I have a reservation and might wind up buying it for our son as he will be turning 16 right around that time. If Rivian applies the same sort of attention to quality and performance that's in my R1 it would be a good and safe vehicle assuming there was some way to throttle speed down.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

I wasn't referring to the quality as the detriment to Tesla vehicles. The CEO of Tesla is the most significant current downside to Tesla vehicles. I don't care for Tesla's styling and their interior designs but I think Elon is making some questionable decisions and avoiding their products seems like the best way forward in that regard.

Chevy's new EVs are lackluster in range and specs. The EV9 is pretty impressive for its price point0K. Of course, simply making an EV that costs under 50K isn't a magical solution, and RJ's statement implies applying Rivian's innovation and performance to a vehicle under 50K, but isn't sub 5 not simply producing something to meet a price point.

The target for the R2 is a pretty smart one. I have a reservation and might wind up buying it for our son as he will be turning 16 right around that time. If Rivian applies the same sort of attention to quality and performance that's in my R1 it would be a good and safe vehicle assuming there was some way to throttle speed down.

I agree with you. But I also get the impression that RJ believes a sub $50k car is a cure all for Rivian. I personally think that market is saturated.

Now, if you had a 500-600mi car for $50k, you would pull in new customers. Why? Because the range anxiety - while really overblown - is something you simply cannot get people to overcome. The range will be a differentiator. Yet another $50k EV will be a marginal bump. Whether we think investors know what they are talking about or not, the street also has little confidence in the current Rivian long term strategy. The stock is performing terribly this last 18 months.

Tesla is way up because of hype beyond its cars. I also think that hype is overblown. But that tech beyond the car is why Tesla may be a $200B company while Rivian is likely closer to $20B. The problem with a $20B public company is that they are a takeover target, which no one wants (at least not the consumer).

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I agree with you. But I also get the impression that RJ believes a sub $50k car is a cure all for Rivian. I personally think that market is saturated.

Now, if you had a 500-600mi car for $50k, you would pull in new customers. Why? Because the range anxiety - while really overblown - is something you simply cannot get people to overcome. The range will be a differentiator. Yet another $50k EV will be a marginal bump. Whether we think investors know what they are talking about or not, the street also has little confidence in the current Rivian long term strategy. The stock is performing terribly this last 18 months.

Tesla is way up because of hype beyond its cars. I also think that hype is overblown. But that tech beyond the car is why Tesla may be a $200B company while Rivian is likely closer to $20B. The problem with a $20B public company is that they are a takeover target, which no one wants (at least not the consumer).

I think range anxiety will be less of a factor every year going forward. I am the first in my family to go all EV and when I first got the Rivian everyone was worried that they weren’t ready because of range but as more people get experience with EV road trips and get educated on range the 400-500 mile per charge talk will get less noisy.

I disagree that RJ sees a sub 50k dollar vehicle as a panacea. The fact that he already is developing the R3 bolsters my argument.

 

[Electron]

Despite my personal biases against NYT, I'm really enjoying the interview. I may be biased but listening to RJ talk, I can't help but feel he's being genuine. And my worldview agrees with what he says. Go EVs. I actually love seeing the local Mach Es, Hyundai/Kia EVs, Lyriqs, Lucids, and even Cybertrucks around. I obviously enjoy seeing fellow Rivians even more but hey, we all have our preferences =D.

Indeed. At the end of the day we're on the same team.

The faster ICE can phase out and go extinct the better, but that should never be forced upon.

But wait, there's more.

ICE heads need to come to terms that paying forced gas prices or else... Is a reality they need to accept and soak in, otherwise trying to counter EVs in any shape or form becomes a double standard.

The EV mandate and gas are both policy issues. It shares the same parasitic virus.

 

[Electron]

I agree with you. But I also get the impression that RJ believes a sub $50k car is a cure all for Rivian. I personally think that market is saturated.

Now, if you had a 500-600mi car for $50k, you would pull in new customers. Why? Because the range anxiety - while really overblown - is something you simply cannot get people to overcome. The range will be a differentiator. Yet another $50k EV will be a marginal bump. Whether we think investors know what they are talking about or not, the street also has little confidence in the current Rivian long term strategy. The stock is performing terribly this last 18 months.

Tesla is way up because of hype beyond its cars. I also think that hype is overblown. But that tech beyond the car is why Tesla may be a $200B company while Rivian is likely closer to $20B. The problem with a $20B public company is that they are a takeover target, which no one wants (at least not the consumer).

Exactly this. The initial EV wave of buyers is saturated. Among these buyers the majority were capable to afford $50k+ vehicles. It's not like these pool of buyers who bought a $63K Model 3P or a $70K Model YP at its peak were in the low income group. (Generally)

I also agree that the whole range anxiety is way over blown. Thanks to the pesky MSM and those spreading misformation. (Brought to you by Big Petrol and Fake News.)

There needs to be proper EV education and in a perfect world all the EV makers should put some money in a cookie jar to have a program that educates the masses on EV habits etc.

Ex. You plug in your car at home just like you plug in your cell phone and guess what? Wait... Waiiiit... Violla the car is chargerd and ready to go for the day! Amazing isn't it?! Sigh... People... I sometimes wonder of we'll be doomed into extinction from a lack of IQ before a Nuuuuke. Seriously.

Affordable EV wise there are plenty even now and the whole argument that EVs are expensive is long gone.

The crazy IONIQ 5 lease deals made headlines recently as being the most affordable car (in general) in America. There are a lot of options for very good sub $30K EVs in the used market.

Tesla may be overblown in certain areas, but they master and get right the things that actually matter, which they do far far better than Rivian.

 

[Electron]

Excellent assessment. RJ is a visionary and is definitely a cut above other automotive CEO's. He is a real car guy. I would put him on a par with Henry Ford, starting a car company from nothing and producing a cutting edge new type of vehicle. RJ is committed to getting EV's into the hands of as many people as possible. Henry Ford was committed to getting automobiles into the hands of a s many people as possible.

Brian

Fun fact:

Did you know that Henry Ford and Thomas Edison were good friends and that they had an EV in 1913?

In the frunk of the Ford Lightning you'll see an easter egg of this.

Of course it never took off due to Big Petrol = More money. Imagine where our battery tech would have been if we had all those years til' now....

If it wasn't for that, aside to planes we could have been driving EVs all this time with EVs being the norm.

 

[moosetags]

Fun fact:

Did you know that Henry Ford and Thomas Edison were good friends and that they had an EV in 1913?

In the frunk of the Ford Lightning you'll see an easter egg of this.

Of course it never took off due to Big Petrol = More money. Imagine where our battery tech would have been if we had all those years til' now....

If it wasn't for that, aside to planes we could have been driving EVs all this time with EVs being the norm.

Along that same. Henry Ford's wife always drove Detroit Electric. She did not care for the smell of Henry's products, nor the fact that they had to be cranked to get them started.

Brian

 

[Captain JB]

Did anyone mention interest rates as one of the reasons Evs have slowed? I didnt see it but has to be part of the equations as it also affects leasing. As an almost one year owner, maintenance and service ability is the weak link right now (along with road trip charging) for Rivian IMO. I am waiting 4 months to get an appt for some basic repairs at the service center and in the meantime I have to deal with blurry maps, slow corrections, inability to use highway assist, no alexa etc etc. Not major items at all but will future buyers want to wait 4 months for a service appt?? With my Chevy Volkt I had for 10 years (3 very cheap leases) I could get an appt in two days and I hardly ever needed one. JB

 

[EVtowing]

The reasons EV sales have plateaued include: misinformation on ownership challenges, weak charging infrastructure for any road trips, and few decent options below $30k.

Agree on the EV misinformation problem, and yes EVs aren’t yet below $30K, but disagree on your charging infrastructure characterization. There are tens of thousands of DC chargers in North America. I’ve done tens of thousands of miles EV roadtripping all over the Western US and Canada and finding charging is absolutely not an issue. It was in 2013 when I started with EVs but not now.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Agree on the EV misinformation problem, and yes EVs aren’t yet below $30K, but disagree on your charging infrastructure characterization. There are tens of thousands of DC chargers in North America. I’ve done tens of thousands of miles EV roadtripping all over the Western US and Canada and finding charging is absolutely not an issue. It was in 2013 when I started with EVs but not now.

I think it depends on what you mean by an issue. Even up and down the Bay Area and California in general, you can run into serial EV chargers out of order. Or the wait can be an hour, followed by 30 minutes of charging. It’s a pain when you are trying to get to a destination with a schedule. Without a schedule, it’s less of a hassle. Access to the superchargers has been the saving grace. Without them, it’s just too hit or miss without a lot of effort. The delta between effort for charging and gassing up has to shrink in order to convince skeptics. Even if they will only have to fast charge 2-3x a year to see grandma over the holidays.

This is convincing people who haven’t tried an EV to try one. Not folks like you and me who are comfortable with the system. New customers are key to growth for rivian - and it’s supercharged growth is new gas customers, not trying to poach current EV owners.

In my opinion…

 

[DCFC]

This guy is lost in space. The reason EV sales have plateaued isn’t because there are not enough sub $50k options? This is silly. You can buy a Tesla 3 or Y for less than $50k and their sales are down.

You can get a reliable ICE for $25-30k. The reasons EV sales have plateaued include: misinformation on ownership challenges, weak charging infrastructure for any road trips, and few decent options below $30k. Rivian has its own uniquely terrible customer service narrative to deal with.

Can we please get a CEO that can unlock this brand?

To be fair, Rivian is building out the RAN network. I expect the site builds to accelerate now that the Open RAN 1.5 hardware is getting deployed. I've already seen pictures of 3 different Open RAN sites with hardware on the ground.

 

[EVtowing]

Access to the superchargers has been the saving grace. Without them, it’s just too hit or miss without a lot of effort.

Agreed, and my response to you was taking that into consideration. I am sure that before the Supercharger network became available to Rivian owners (at least part of the network, not all of it) charging on road trips was a challenge.

I am a long time Tesla owner (4 different models) but I aspire to be an R1S owner and then an R3 owner. Trying to convince my spouse to sell our Model X and buy a new R1S as soon as Rivian releases Lane Change on Command and Advanced Highway Assist (I have had the equivalent Tesla features for 7 years now) and enables Advanced Cruise Control while towing (Tesla has had that since 2015).

I want to see Rivian succeed (I’ve bought stock) and I think it will succeed. J.D. Scaringe is inspirational and laser focused on his company.

 

[SANZC02]

I think it depends on what you mean by an issue. Even up and down the Bay Area and California in general, you can run into serial EV chargers out of order. Or the wait can be an hour, followed by 30 minutes of charging. It’s a pain when you are trying to get to a destination with a schedule. Without a schedule, it’s less of a hassle. Access to the superchargers has been the saving grace. Without them, it’s just too hit or miss without a lot of effort. The delta between effort for charging and gassing up has to shrink in order to convince skeptics. Even if they will only have to fast charge 2-3x a year to see grandma over the holidays.

This is convincing people who haven’t tried an EV to try one. Not folks like you and me who are comfortable with the system. New customers are key to growth for rivian - and it’s supercharged growth is new gas customers, not trying to poach current EV owners.

In my opinion…

I would caution using CA as a baseline, I find most charging stations pretty crowded in CA but once you get East of Vegas or Phoenix most of the stations I have used have been pretty open.

I’ve done a 5500 and 7400 mile trip in my R1S and a 6500 mile trip in my Tesla (in the last 3 years) and never found charging to be an issue.

 

[Electron]

Agree on the EV misinformation problem, and yes EVs aren’t yet below $30K, but disagree on your charging infrastructure characterization. There are tens of thousands of DC chargers in North America. I’ve done tens of thousands of miles EV roadtripping all over the Western US and Canada and finding charging is absolutely not an issue. It was in 2013 when I started with EVs but not now.

The Ace card in rural areas are RV camp sites that are often over looked.

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