Ford "PRICE WAR" drives RIVN under $10

[White Shadow]

That's not really how it works. RJ has a controlling voting share, he would have to approve along with other big investors. You'd have to pay a substantial premium on today's prices.

Only if they have differential voting rights. I don't know if that's the case with Rivian.

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[jjswan33]

Only if they have differential voting rights. I don't know if that's the case with Rivian.

The relevant context from the article below:

Rivian, which is based in Irvine, California, has two classes of stock. Scaringe owns just 1% of Class A shares, or those held by the broader investor base and available for trading. But he owns 100% of Class B shares, and each one has 10 times the amount of voting control as a Class A share.

Add it all up, and Scaringe, who is also chairman of the board, has 9.5% voting control. His veto power is even greater. That’s because in order to make any major changes at the board level or in the company’s bylaws, the holders of at least 80% of Class B shares would have to go along with the move.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/11/riv...worth-2point2-billion-after-companys-ipo.html

 

[ohseedee]

I’m comparing to Ford XLT trim with large battery aka 320 mile range— current price $65-67k minus Ford $7500 incentive.

Rivian needs to reduce prices on as many vehicles possible (like ones priced $80,000.01 to $86k) to under $80k tax credit threshold

Is the XLT trim an off-road trim? If not, you shouldn't be comparing it with the off-road / 20" wheel option on the R1T. The comparable R1T is dual motor, standard+ pack, with 21" wheels at $73K and 315 miles. Thats much more of an apples to apples and 7K under your 80K threshold.

 

[Rivian Head]

I don’t think it’s that insane. Rivian has the ability to monetize all vehicles with membership premiums and autonomy. That is a lever that they have signaled that they will pull, but they haven’t yet. Never say never.

Membership premiums and autonomy?
Am I missing something?

I don’t think it’s that insane. Rivian has the ability to monetize all vehicles with membership premiums and autonomy. That is a lever that they have signaled that they will pull, but they haven’t yet. Never say never.

 

[zipzag]

..........

I'd love to see a real world comparison of a 68k Flash trim F150 to a $69k R1T DM Standard pack.

Most people who actually need a pickup aren't shopping the R1T. The Lightning Flash looks like a nice pickup for some buyers.

Obviously the most elite and special group here on the forum are the three of us who own Illinois corn farms. I'm not a farmer, but the other two guys are. They are also the only two Illinois farmers who would buy an R1T. Why buy a vehicle that can't fit what you go to pick up at the seed dealer or tractor supply?

A lot of midwestern famers would do great with a full size EV pickup, especially where power is cheap. From what I can tell almost none have even considered a purchase.

 

[White Shadow]

The relevant context from the article below:

Rivian, which is based in Irvine, California, has two classes of stock. Scaringe owns just 1% of Class A shares, or those held by the broader investor base and available for trading. But he owns 100% of Class B shares, and each one has 10 times the amount of voting control as a Class A share.

Add it all up, and Scaringe, who is also chairman of the board, has 9.5% voting control. His veto power is even greater. That’s because in order to make any major changes at the board level or in the company’s bylaws, the holders of at least 80% of Class B shares would have to go along with the move.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/11/riv...worth-2point2-billion-after-companys-ipo.html

So then yes, that's differential voting rights. But it's also not enough to guarantee anything. There are also quite a few large shareholders like Amazon. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Rivian could be taken over.

 

[Biturbowned]

Membership premiums and autonomy?
Am I missing something?

I guess so, there has been talk about a Rivian monthly membership program before. It’s no secret that we will have to start paying for cellular data s00n, that will likely be a part of it. As for autonomy I’m not suggesting FSD level features, but it’s fair to say there’s room for improvement in the current system and that could likely be factored into a premium membership plan. The brand cache, the data, the memberships, the path to profitability are valuable to the right company.

 

[jjswan33]

So then yes, that's differential voting rights. But it's also not enough to guarantee anything. There are also quite a few large shareholders like Amazon. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Rivian could be taken over.

But it is unless RJ is in on the plan, he has veto power. Quoting again in case it isn't clear...

His veto power is even greater. That’s because in order to make any major changes at the board level or in the company’s bylaws, the holders of at least 80% of Class B shares would have to go along with the move.

At least of 80% of Class B shareholders have to approve and RJ owns 100% of those shares.

 

[bdwalters]

The stock price continues to be driven by short term sentiment. As we've seen over the past year, that sentiment can change very quickly (for better or worse). If you can take some risk, best to buy now when sentiment is very bad. (At least that's what I keep telling myself!!)

The stock is priced near cash value. As Rivian burns through the cash, the share price will go with it, absent other good news. I’m cheering for Rivian, but I’m sure not investing in it even at these prices.

 

[DuoRivians]

I’m 80% sure there will be lots of people in about a year saying: I wish I bought rivn at under $10.

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

It’s trading below its BOOK Value !! If I had $8.9bn right now I would acquire it then get the cash , sell the PP&E , payoff all liabilities and will be left with an extra 200millions profit!! And I am not counting for the goodwill value created by the brand. Really crazy valuation

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

The stock is priced near cash value. As Rivian burns through the cash, the share price will go with it, absent other good news. I’m cheering for Rivian, but I’m sure not investing in it even at these prices.

Good idea! Buy when the good news are out and the stock goes 50% up over night ?

 

[Zoidz]

That vertical integration isn’t helping them on the service side. They are so backed up here on the West coast (and the East from what I read occasionally). And, they’re not quite fully vertical yet as they aren’t making their own batteries, which is arguably the most important aspect of EV manufacturing. That’s where the big cost advantage comes from. And, why BYD and Tesla can sell cars cheaply.

How does any of this relate to the specific question I was answering - “What is Rivian’s core competency?”

 

[Nix]

I mostly agree. The most likely takeover would be a pre-pack bankruptcy, so vendor contracts, ground leases (service stations) and warranties could be wiped out. I think a global footprint company could scale the R1, R2, and R3. (Mercedes?)

Funny fantasy fan fiction! I give your post 9 tomatoes for creativity, but it lacks in the realism, only 2 tomatoes for that. You think Rivian is already in talks for a takeover using a pre-pack bankruptcy?

The isn't any judge in the world who would approve bankruptcy for a company with $9B in cash and less than $3B in short term debt.

$17B in total assets, and less than $8B in total liabilities.

Rivian simply currently isn't eligible under bankruptcy laws to file for any relief from creditors. Rivian goes into court and says they can't pay their creditors, and the judge just takes some of their cash and pays off all their short term debt and says "fixed it for you". Done.

 

[sphereobject]

Funny fantasy fan fiction! I give your post 9 tomatoes for creativity, but it lacks in the realism, only 2 tomatoes for that. You think Rivian is already in talks for a takeover using a pre-pack bankruptcy?

The isn't any judge in the world who would approve bankruptcy for a company with $9B in cash and less than $3B in short term debt.

$17B in total assets, and less than $8B in total liabilities.

Rivian simply currently isn't eligible under bankruptcy laws to file for any relief from creditors. Rivian goes into court and says they can't pay their creditors, and the judge just takes some of their cash and pays off all their short term debt and says "fixed it for you". Done.

I agree, this can't happen now. This would be when the company runs out of money, which RJ said would be around Q4 2025.

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