Ford "PRICE WAR" drives RIVN under $10

[KootenayEV]

No. Why make a product that barely sells compared to your other products? Their sales are so R1S biased and will be even less of R1T when the R2 comes out. The lead time for a custom config order of R1S is nearly twice as long as for a custom R1T. That should not be the case. Just stop making the R1T and make the R1S quicker.

Also, look at the R1 shop right now? In my zip code, you still have a lot of choices for R1T that comes with free full PPF. But, over on the R1S side, not a single one left with free full PPF out of over 300 available. Not even a free full PPF option can sell the R1T.

Why do you think they should keep making the R1T? For nostalgia reasons? I don't get why you keep saying they shouldn't get rid of the R1T when it's such a low volume seller.

Because as RJ has said, people need compelling choices. The R1T is a choice, and Rivian won't survive with one vehicle type. The line is not production constrained after the factory updates this year, so make the mix that the market wants. I agree that they shouldn't produce a bunch of R1Ts that nobody wants (ie don't carry excessive inventory), but I think they should keep making it.

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[R1TS]

Because as RJ has said, people need compelling choices. The R1T is a choice, and Rivian won't survive with one vehicle type. The line is not production constrained after the factory updates this year, so make the mix that the market wants. I agree that they shouldn't produce a bunch of R1Ts that nobody wants (ie don't carry excessive inventory), but I think they should keep making it.

Rivian isn't Porsche. They don't have the luxury in their situation now to be making occasional custom configs of a very low volume vehicle.

Rivian can definitely survive by only making the R1S. In fact, as I mentioned, their sales are very R1S biased and the lead times are much longer for the R1S. And, when the R2 comes along, the % of sales attributed to R1T will be more irrelevant.

 

[sphereobject]

That is insane, why would anyone want to take over a company hemorrhaging money in a sector with looming price war, and has no clear plan to scale up volume. OEMs are moving toward hybrids, and Tesla has their hands full, and pivoting to softwares and Robotaxi. I just don’t see it.

I mostly agree. The most likely takeover would be a pre-pack bankruptcy, so vendor contracts, ground leases (service stations) and warranties could be wiped out. I think a global footprint company could scale the R1, R2, and R3. (Mercedes?)

 

[pricedm]

You can already get an R1T with 20" wheels for under 80k. Lots of them in the shop. With a standard+ battery a dual-motor R1T with off-road package/20" wheels goes for $76,850. The 280 miles range of the standard+ is pretty much the same as the quad/large-pack with 20" wheels.

I’m comparing to Ford XLT trim with large battery aka 320 mile range— current price $65-67k minus Ford $7500 incentive.

Rivian needs to reduce prices on as many vehicles possible (like ones priced $80,000.01 to $86k) to under $80k tax credit threshold

 

[TexasBob]

That is insane, why would anyone want to take over a company hemorrhaging money in a sector with looming price war, and has no clear plan to scale up volume. OEMs are moving toward hybrids, and Tesla has their hands full, and pivoting to softwares and Robotaxi. I just don’t see it.

Rivian is not for sale, but the case for buying Rivian is incredibly strong for any number of players from Europe, China, and Japan. The products and brand are very strong, they have a nice US footprint, and they have an extremely strong capability in software compared to most automakers. The main problem (which any large player can help resolve) is scale and balance sheet.

I do not think Rivian will survive as an independent company, but Rivian will survive as long as management remains realistic, honest, and acts with the best interests of the shareholders and customers in mind. (In other words, it does the opposite of Fisker, Canoo, Aptera, Lordstown, Nikola, and some of the other EV hucksters.)

BTW, OEMs are not moving toward hybrids anywhere except in one smallish EV market (US), and even here, this is more likely than not just a short term reversal of a long-term decline. What is actually happening is this: mainstream buyers are turning to electrified transport solutions causing plug=ins to continue to grow market share and they are following the same path of early adopters, buying PHEVs as a bridge to full electric. That is what the data actually says (c.f. Jose Pontes EV database).

 

[White Shadow]

That is insane, why would anyone want to take over a company hemorrhaging money in a sector with looming price war, and has no clear plan to scale up volume. OEMs are moving toward hybrids, and Tesla has their hands full, and pivoting to softwares and Robotaxi. I just don’t see it.

Rivian could be a good fit for certain companies to acquire. There was some talk about Rivian being a good fit for GM to acquire. I've also heard that even Apple could potentially be interested, now that they have basically given up on their in-house EV project. There are a number of reasons why Rivian could be scooped up by someone else. Only time will tell....

 

[White Shadow]

Rivian is not for sale...

Hostile takeover.....it can happen easier when stock price drops low.

 

[jjswan33]

The 280 miles range of the standard+ is pretty much the same as the quad/large-pack with 20" wheels

And it charges faster to 80%

 

[evguy]

BTW, OEMs are not moving toward hybrids anywhere except in one smallish EV market (US), and even here, this is more likely than not just a short term reversal of a long-term decline. What is actually happening is this: mainstream buyers are turning to electrified transport solutions causing plug=ins to continue to grow market share and they are following the same path of early adopters, buying PHEVs as a bridge to full electric. That is what the data actually says (c.f. Jose Pontes EV database).
[/QUOTE]
This. It's undisputed that the long term trend is toward battery electric vehicles. (So is the short/medium term trend, the growth rate is just slower than most expected, which is what's causing the temporary growing pains.) We can't miss the forest for the trees. Rivian's duty is to create long term value for investors and customers, not line the pockets of day/swing traders.

 

[Perplexed]

The truth is that the price reflects their production and distribution constraints.
There is a general slow-down in EV sales that is compounded by the fact that Rivian is going to need time to scale up. How they do that is going to make or break them.

 

[jjswan33]

Hostile takeover.....it can happen easier when stock price drops low.

That's not really how it works. RJ has a controlling voting share, he would have to approve along with other big investors. You'd have to pay a substantial premium on today's prices.

 

[Biturbowned]

That is insane, why would anyone want to take over a company hemorrhaging money in a sector with looming price war, and has no clear plan to scale up volume. OEMs are moving toward hybrids, and Tesla has their hands full, and pivoting to softwares and Robotaxi. I just don’t see it.

I don’t think it’s that insane. Rivian has the ability to monetize all vehicles with membership premiums and autonomy. That is a lever that they have signaled that they will pull, but they haven’t yet. Never say never.

 

[RivianSurvive]

The stock price continues to be driven by short term sentiment. As we've seen over the past year, that sentiment can change very quickly (for better or worse). If you can take some risk, best to buy now when sentiment is very bad. (At least that's what I keep telling myself!!)

If the stock is only driven by short term sentiment, the stock would be a penny stock by now. It is still above $9 because some long term hype is still there.

I have seen tons of stocks falling below $1. Yet, their stubborn investors kept cheering for buying more during the falls. Not saying RIVN will drop to penny, but keep buying a falling stock is never a guaranteed winning strategy.

 

[M3_R2]

I averaged down earlier today when it was at its lowest point but I think that's it for me unless it goes down to around $8. Then I'll buy again. I don't see it as a company that will ultimately fail but hopefully it doesn't fall into foreign hands.

Applying a single strategy to stock buying is a guaranteed losing methodology.

 

[RivianSurvive]

I averaged down earlier today when it was at its lowest point but I think that's it for me unless it goes down to around $8. Then I'll buy again. I don't see it as a company that will ultimately fail but hopefully it doesn't fall into foreign hands.

Applying a single strategy to stock buying is a guaranteed losing methodology.

I hope you control your overall exposure after adding more. IMHO, when a potential takeover happen, the deal price will be likely lower than $8.

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