Help me stay bullish

[fyton2v]

This is my first post on RivianForums. Not a troll. I have stock (underwater, unfortunately, and I've been long for quite a while), I've reserved the R2, and I'm looking at buying an R1T, which is why I joined this forum.

I'm curious how people are imagining Rivian's Q1 earnings report will go? Since I'm in the market for the R1T, I was browsing their available vehicles on the web. It felt like A LOT of unsold R1T units --so I started counting. The page was still scrolling, but I stopped counting at 400. Here we are at the end of March and they apparently have many amazing trucks sitting unsold in Normal. What's the thinking for how this will affect their Q1 projections? Also, their CAO just sold 31K shares. If I'm being honest, all that inventory near the end of this quarter, plus an accounting leader selling stock, doesn't instill a ton of confidence that they'll have a positive report.

Thoughts?

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[COdogman]

I am no stock expert, but Rivian has said demand is approximately 70/30 in favor of the R1S, so there are going to be more Ts for sale in the shop. They also just started selling CPO R1Ts which means some great deals can be found for anyone looking for that model.

IMO Rivian is a stock that no one should expect anything from for 10+ years. If they survive the next 2-4 years and can get the R2/ R3 to market I think they will be close to the mountaintop.

 

[mkg3]

Well, the 1Q24 earnings call cannot possible go worse than the last call.

Since then, they have had a major positive. Rivian pivoted from building R2 in GA and spend $5.5B to start production, to spend $2B at the IL plant and start R2 sooner.

The reveal of R2/R3 are great for fans and enthusiasts but really the thing that moves the needle is the change of strategy - finally - by Rivian.

Now, it looks like Rivian will not run out of cash when R2 starts and the fate of the company will lie with the success of R2, instead of need to raise lot more money to get to R2 or run out of money.

Also what's not said or communicated is the schedule of EDV and R1T fleet sales to AT&T. That will help reduce R1T inventory or build up.

I do own $RIVN and have made money in the past but the current holdings are underwater. The way I think about it is its essentially dead money as an investment but can be a trading vehicle for now.

 

[140 degrees]

Next quarter earnings will be terrible. And I'm the glass half full guy!

The whole financial community is expecting the shut-down to result in a bad quarter. The question is whether they exceed bad expectations.
There is potential good news when they announce the Illinois incentive negotiation results.

This stock is very risky if you don't treat it as part of a diversified portfolio. I like it's long term potential, but honestly you should never invest based on advice you get on a forum.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Fundamentally…

Don’t believe everything you read in media. Some are written with inherent bias. Educate yourself on the topic so you can better discern what is straight reporting and what is opinion-based editorial.

Further, despite Tesla being a success (but do also keep in mind how many quarters it took them to get here, since going public), total BEV market share in the US is only at 6% or so; and it has grown considerably in the past 3 yrs.. While high prices and consumer borrowing cost have stunted growth a bit, there is plenty of room for long term growth. As for growth potential vs amount of perceived competition… take a deeper look at the automotive landscape. Even with challenges, outside of Tesla, Rivian is best positioned to be successful/sustainable. Most others are struggling. And none of the legacy brands are fully committed or competitive in the BEV space, not even the most progressive ones.

In general, with information, don’t be a tourist (take in sights at surface value). Instead, read and understand enough to be a tour guide. Ignorance breeds fear. And any investor looking at Rivian to get rich quick doesn't know what they are doing. This one is about long term growth. In the short term it will be and remain volatile because of level of uncertainty.

PS—Detractors will point to Rivian not having to reinvent everything, whilst Tesla did. That isn't true. Tesla did have to invent some things. But they didn't invent batteries. They didn't invent vehicle chassis/platform engineering. They took various existing tech and figured out how to get them all to work together, while cutting out inefficiencies in traditional auto manufacturing (including the now expected glass roof). Today, their per vehicle profit margins are much higher than legacy auto.

 

[fyton2v]

I've acquired new positions on the ride down, but I'm holding a pretty big bag. Depending on the short term news cycle, and for the first time, I'm thinking about selling my position on the bet the stock continues to drop after the earnings call in May.

 

[1T2022]

If you sale to push RIVN down, I will buy the dip

 

[OverEasyGoing]

I keep buying, too. I'm still bullish but it might be a longer hold. There is a visceral reaction in the market from the R2 reveal (probably 100k+ reservations by now) and the surprise of the R3. When reservations open for the R3, I expect even more. I heard stories of people planning to reserve R2 but held off when they saw the R3, they'll wait. The retooling of Normal to build the R2 tells me they are backing off the R1T a bit as demand slows but I'm still seeing the demo T's fly out of the shop. Current market value of <$12B with Tesla's over $550B and the R2 and R3 will take a huge bite out of their market share...eventually.

But more than anything, I simply love my R1S. Best vehicle I've ever owned. So my judgement is admittedly clouded.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

If you sale to push RIVN down, I will buy the dip

And there will be more future dips, regardless. Global fluctuations on materials and services. Domestic and international politics/conflicts. Not to mention all factors that originate within US auto industry alone. There are no guarantees it will be smooth sailing, ever. That, is the nature of stock investing/speculation. Those who participate but don't know this (or are willfully ignorant), don't know what they're doing and should stop.

 

[Zoidz]

When I bought Rivian at the pre IPO price and later at a lower price so I could DCA, I was honest with myself that I could lose it all. I tend to hold (or HODL, lol) long with a dversified portfolio, and that investing strategy has worked extremely well for me. I feel that Rivian has reach critical mass in the sense it probably won't go to zero - they would be aquired/merge/whatever at some point.

I think that a lot of the losses and troubles are baked in to the share price at this point. I think that Rivian has shown with the R2, R3 and EDV OEM/skateboard plans that they are a niche market player (in a good sense) with a well thought out plan. Rivian has gotten slapped around pretty hard (COVID, interest rates) and is still fighting with both fists. This is not a Fiskers story. In terms of focus and strategy, I see them behind Tesla, BMW and Hyundai/Kia but ahead of the big 3 US and the Japanese overall.

Rivian needs to hit their targets and also announce key accomplishments/advancements each quarter until the R2 ships, such as explaining the R2 production line build out milestones and announce more EDV skateboard agreements. If they can do that from now until Q4 2025, they should be OK.

 

[lefkonj]

the best way to stay positive on the stock is to stop reading all the crap online. Half are people who are betting against it with short positions while the other 49% are trolls for Elon or the petroleum industry.

Rivian will be fine it takes time and they have a solid plan. Just sit back and enjoy.

 

[evguy]

I've been buying dips since March of last year. Still bullish long term, but I trimmed my position at 13.50 last week. I still think we might see single digits soon, but with the short % now over 20%, the stock price is like a coiled spring under pressure. If Rivian executes the Q2 shutdown well and the Fed starts cutting rates in June, it could surge over 20 again later this year.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

When I bought Rivian at the pre IPO price and later at a lower price so I could DCA, I was honest with myself that I could lose it all. I tend to hold (or HODL, lol) long with a dversified portfolio, and that investing strategy has worked extremely well for me. I feel that Rivian has reach critical mass in the sense it probably won't go to zero - they would be aquired/merge/whatever at some point.

I think that a lot of the losses and troubles are baked in to the share price at this point. I think that Rivian has shown with the R2, R3 and EDV OEM/skateboard plans that they are a niche market player (in a good sense) with a well thought out plan. Rivian has gotten slapped around pretty hard (COVID, interest rates) and is still fighting with both fists. This is not a Fiskers story. In terms of focus and strategy, I see them behind Tesla, BMW and Hyundai/Kia but ahead of the big 3 US and the Japanese overall.

Rivian needs to hit their targets and also announce key accomplishments/advancements each quarter until the R2 ships, such as explaining the R2 production line build out milestones and announce more EDV skateboard agreements. If they can do that from now until Q4 2025, they should be OK.

 

[1T2022]

I am at $12. If RIVN hit $10 again, I will double my holding.
If it goes up, I am happy. If it goes down, I am happy to buy more.

 

[iansriv]

If you can find the peak price-that's what I got in at. I'm in as long as my Rivian is. Rivian has a great product and a lot of great products in the pipeline. I come from a long line of sports cars and was a bit concerned about how I would like the R1. Six months in-I really like it. I also like RJ's passion and his story. It's a great American story.

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