R1S's are being delivered (according to Rivian customer support)

[paariv]

Except if you look at the poll on this forum there are 12 people with a March/April window and 2 that say earlier for the R1S delivery window.

I’m not saying things can’t slip but thinking there should a Lot of them by now just does not sound right to me.

I’ll wait for May before I start to wonder…

Poll results on these forums aren’t reliable - people vote in error all the time. And delivery windows aren’t deliveries.
But ultimately I agree that there’s no cause for alarm now.

I just also think there’s no reason to think they are really delivering R1Ses to third parties. I bet they’ll have a manual out when that happens, and I bet we’ll have forum members posting as soon as guides start reaching out.

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[crcole]

I've never seen it a battle between Ford and Rivian, unless you consider Mach-E vs BMW i5 a battle as well. Ford and Rivian are producing different classes of trucks and different target markets. The only thing in common is the word "truck".

The top of the line Lariat and Platinum versions of F-150 Lightning are comparable to R1T. This is similar to the Mach-E Premium being comparable to the BMW iX. Unless you see the iX’s bugs bunny buck teeth grill placing it in the clown car category.

 

[timf]

Poll results on these forums aren’t reliable - people vote in error all the time. And delivery windows aren’t deliveries.
But ultimately I agree that there’s no cause for alarm now.

I just also think there’s no reason to think they are really delivering R1Ses to third parties. I bet they’ll have a manual out when that happens, and I bet we’ll have forum members posting as soon as guides start reaching out.

April/May is the earliest R1S delivery window for those who have always had a R1S reservation and did not switch from R1T. Anyone who indicates they received an earlier window is either a mis-vote or their window was based on a previous R1T reservation. I reserved immediately following the R1S reveal and while I'd love to get April delivery, May seems more likely.

 

[Lawrence-of-Blaine]

If no forum members are getting them, they’re not being delivered to real customers yet.

Well, isn’t it possible that someone who is NOT on the forum had an R1S pre-order? They could get their vehicle and not be on here telling us about it.

 

[skyote]

April/May is the earliest R1S delivery window for those who have always had a R1S reservation and did not switch from R1T. Anyone who indicates they received an earlier window is either a mis-vote or their window was based on a previous R1T reservation.

Incorrect, March/April is the earliest R1S window, and always has been.

 

[Scoiatael]

That battle has already been won by Ford. They have 200K pre-orders for the Lightning, and stopped taking any more.

The first round of orders only had a conversion rate around 41% I believe. So that is only 82000, which is comparable to what Rivian has. Ford has delivered 0 trucks so far, and are currently making dealership mannequins. First deliveries will likely be end of April/early May.

 

[moosehead]

Initial R1S delivery schedule was Jan 22 per both pre IPO (posted in this thread) and numerous other news releases.

https://insideevs.com/news/550134/rivian-r1s-deliveries-delayed/amp/

Recall that Rivian announced it had made R1S “deliveries” in Dec 21 which we later discovered were pre production units to CEO and CFO.

Surely, their vaunted comms team would make an announcement if any true arms length deliveries were made.

 

[mkennedy1996]

Except if you look at the poll on this forum there are 12 people with a March/April window and 2 that say earlier for the R1S delivery window.

I’m not saying things can’t slip but thinking there should a Lot of them by now just does not sound right to me.

I’ll wait for May before I start to wonder…

Yes, but please get out your grain of salt.

One of the "earlier" R1S folks also indicated that they placed their reservation 3 months before reservations actually started. The other "Earlier" claimed to have placed their reservation 23 Apr 2021. And at least one of the March/April indicated that they are getting the MAX Pack.

 

[pedalsandpints]

April/May is the earliest R1S delivery window for those who have always had a R1S reservation and did not switch from R1T. Anyone who indicates they received an earlier window is either a mis-vote or their window was based on a previous R1T reservation. I reserved immediately following the R1S reveal and while I'd love to get April delivery, May seems more likely.

Agreed. I'm realistically expecting mine in May. Anything sooner would be a pleasant surprise.

 

[SANZC02]

Yes, but please get out your grain of salt.

One of the "earlier" R1S folks also indicated that they placed their reservation 3 months before reservations actually started. The other "Earlier" claimed to have placed their reservation 23 Apr 2021. And at least one of the March/April indicated that they are getting the MAX Pack.

Got it, I did not understand the rules.

All clear now, we can use lack of reporting on the forum to support an argument but can’t expect to rely on the things on the forum that may counter the argument. ??

 

[paariv]

Well, isn’t it possible that someone who is NOT on the forum had an R1S pre-order? They could get their vehicle and not be on here telling us about it.

Of course it's possible. You can't prove a negative.

I'm just trying to reach the most reasonable conclusion based on our R1T experience to date: Rivian will claim it's delivering vehicles even if it's really only getting them to employees or other insiders/special circumstances. We won't see posts about deliveries then. When it really starts external customer deliveries, numerous people on the forums will hear, and we'll know right away.

We won't know if we are 2 weeks or 2 months from external customer deliveries based on anything Rivian tells us; they miss delivery deadlines all the time without advance announcement.

Based on this, I conclude (I can't prove it to logical certainty, of course, but it's a reasonable conclusion) that the claimed R1S deliveries are going to employees/insiders in very low volume. I don't know when real deliveries will start, though, but I hope we're not in for a 6-month wait like there was for the R1T.

 

[mount_finkus]

Read the IPO prospectus. For your convince: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000119312521289903/d157488ds1.htm

I skimmed through this looking for delivery figures and the closest thing I could find is in this quote:

The factory building covers approximately 3.3 million square feet and is currently equipped to produce up to 150,000 vehicles annually. We believe that we will be able to increase the annual production capacity of the Normal Factory up to 200,000 vehicles by 2023 as we introduce additional R1 platform variants and expand the facility.

This very specifically avoids discussion of actual production estimates and only covers "capacity". At least in terms of their communication in this document nothing is changed, their factory very well may be capable of 150,000 vehicles annually whether they actually hit those numbers or not due to a number of concerns outside of the factory's capability.

 

[SANZC02]

I skimmed through this looking for delivery figures and the closest thing I could find is in this quote:


This very specifically avoids discussion of actual production estimates and only covers "capacity". At least in terms of their communication in this document nothing is changed, their factory very well may be capable of 150,000 vehicles annually whether they actually hit those numbers or not due to a number of concerns outside of the factory's capability.

There is a portion in there that says they plan to deliver 100k vans to Amazon by 2025. Assuming they are including 2025, they could easily do that if supply chain issues are reduced, here is a sample that gets them there on a ramp up that is not crazy hitting 10k this year;

2022 - 10k
2023 - 20k
2024 - 30k
2025 - 40k

That gets them to the 100k and still has room to meet the R1 projections.

I still have never seen a projection for the R1 deliveries outside of they thought the could get through the 50k by the end of 2023. The 25k for 2022 in the last earnings report was the first specific number I saw for a single year.

If someone has details of specific delivery projections please share the link, I have searched and cannot find any others.

 

[crcole]

I skimmed through this looking for delivery figures and the closest thing I could find is in this quote:


This very specifically avoids discussion of actual production estimates and only covers "capacity". At least in terms of their communication in this document nothing is changed, their factory very well may be capable of 150,000 vehicles annually whether they actually hit those numbers or not due to a number of concerns outside of the factory's capability.

I am glad you are satisfied Rivian CS communications. It looks like you are the target audience for their messaging strategy.

Unfortunately, your spirited defense of their promises runs counter to their public statements to Wall Street.

https://eletric-vehicles.com/rivian...liveries-to-25k-vehicles-stock-dropped-13-ah/

 

[Autolycus]

Read the IPO prospectus. For your convince: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000119312521289903/d157488ds1.htm

FWIW, that's a 250-page document that does not once mention how many vehicles they expected to produce in 2022. The closest it gets is to say they expect to be at their maximum production rate at some point in 2023.

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