"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

[Redline]

These aren’t from the Wall St bet kids. These are individual purchases.

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[GaryL]

These aren’t from the Wall St bet kids. These are individual purchases.

I would like to think you are correct about good news on the earning but so far I have to believe the sleuths here would be all over 3 party deliveries in volume. Here is to hoping good news is on the horizon.

 

[the long way downunder]

There has been multiple 6 and 7 figure purchases of Rivian Calls the last few weeks. There was nearly a $1m purchase of $64 March Weekly calls purchased again today.

Rivian was green nearly all week in a week that was a blood bath for “growth” stocks.

My best guess is something positive is coming from earnings.

How can you tell if a call is being bought or sold?

 

[Redline]

How can you tell if a call is being bought or sold?

I pay an institutional trading service to tell me. ?

 

[the long way downunder]

I would like to think you are correct about good news on the earning but so far I have to believe the sleuths here would be all over 3 party deliveries in volume. Here is to hoping good news is on the horizon.

I assume most call volume is covered by long positions and generating a little return. I have a cost basis around $75 and I sold $80 to $100 calls with no expectation of being called away, though the price on those has stopped falling, so I'll have to buy those back at $80 strike and wait for the next drop in the VIX to indicate timing to get out of the $100s.
The vol skew is moderately "normally" bearish. A stock dropping from $120 to $60 is going to make most punters (more) afraid of the unknown.
My only "fear" is $RIVN working its way back up to $90 and me not having stuffed my pockets full at $60.
It may sound like a long way off, but there's a psychological characteristic in the market that as a stock passes over $100 with steady buying, it tends to move over that level to say $110 and find strong support thereafter.
When market sentiment is bullish, the result is more often bearish and conversely as bearish fears take hold of the market, the consequence is (invariably, at some point) bullish.
When $RIVN was $120, down from $170, the sentiment was bullish and buyers "wished" they could have gotten in at $100.
Now, having experience near pre-IPO prices in the $50 handle, the sentiment is bearish and buyers are skeptical about $70.
It's too early to call this a bullish expectation for Rivian (12 bad weeks followed by 3 good weeks, does not make a bull market … ) but the last three weeks show what I can best describe as "stability" and that will bring buyers and speculators to accumulate for the long term (months and years, not hours and days.) In my opinion. : )

 

[the long way downunder]

I pay an institutional trading service to tell me. ?

how do they know?

 

[the long way downunder]

Well, so much for $RIVN and $TSLA … collateral damage.
I can't advocate selling, for risk of missing the upswing.
I can't advocate buying this (limitless) dip.

The US Govt hasn't learned much in the last 20+ years of "forever" wars. The military industrial complex valuations soar on news of nuclear saber rattling while wholly US companies … employers … people … lose billions for fear of the US once again the uninvited oaf landing on foreign soil, picking a fight it cannot win.

Another nightmare US administration, just like the previous one and the one before them.

 

[harkco]

Well, so much for $RIVN and $TSLA … collateral damage.
I can't advocate selling, for risk of missing the upswing.
I can't advocate buying this (limitless) dip.

The US Govt hasn't learned much in the last 20+ years of "forever" wars. The military industrial complex valuations soar on news of nuclear saber rattling while wholly US companies … employers … people … lose billions for fear of the US once again the uninvited oaf landing on foreign soil, picking a fight it cannot win.

Another nightmare US administration, just like the previous one and the one before them.

Amen to every word of that.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Well, so much for $RIVN and $TSLA … collateral damage.
I can't advocate selling, for risk of missing the upswing.
I can't advocate buying this (limitless) dip.

The US Govt hasn't learned much in the last 20+ years of "forever" wars. The military industrial complex valuations soar on news of nuclear saber rattling while wholly US companies … employers … people … lose billions for fear of the US once again the uninvited oaf landing on foreign soil, picking a fight it cannot win.

Another nightmare US administration, just like the previous one and the one before them.

Thank you for validating my purchase of defense ETFs on Friday ?

 

[the long way downunder]

Thank you for validating my purchase of defense ETFs on Friday ?

I wish you'd handed the memo on to me …
What ETFs did you use?

Stocks of interest would be
Lockheed Martin $LMT
Raytheon Technologies $RTX
Northrop Grumman $NOC
but nothing outperforming the market

 

[GaryL]

Dec 22 Corn , November 22 Soybeans. Just Saying?

 

[the long way downunder]

Dec 22 Corn , November 22 Soybeans. Just Saying?

The powers that control the markets certainly like to taunt the punters with numerology …
The "bottom" after the 2008 crash occurred on 03/06/09 …
There seems to be some conspicuous numerological phenomenon around each market event.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I wish you'd handed the memo on to me …
What ETFs did you use?

Stocks of interest would be
Lockheed Martin $LMT
Raytheon Technologies $RTX
Northrop Grumman $NOC
but nothing outperforming the market

XAR and PPA. Neither killed it today but I'm thinking it's a solid 6 month play. Also loaded up on US Natural Gas ETFs because, well, Europe isn't going to be getting it from Russia any time soon and they need to get it fromasomewhere.

 

[the long way downunder]

XAR and PPA. Neither killed it today but I'm thinking it's a solid 6 month play. Also loaded up on US Natural Gas ETFs because, well, Europe isn't going to be getting it from Russia any time soon and they need to get it fromasomewhere.

ok, I see the "obvious" upside trades I mentioned all hit 1 year highs in the last week or two ($LMT, $RTX, $NOC) but as I type, reports of "missile strikes" in Ukraine have precipitated after hours futures selling. The open tomorrow will be chaos.

I don't follow overseas ETFs closely except for the currency and commodity markets – I don't try to trade emerging markets for example – so I don't have specific targets on my radar.

I have been watching $RSX which has taken a predictable tumble down (it's failure started Oct last year after setting a new high … maybe some knew something 5 months ago … I didn't get the memo, but I did see the price behavior… )

 

[GaryL]

The powers that control the markets certainly like to taunt the punters with numerology …
The "bottom" after the 2008 crash occurred on 03/06/09 …
There seems to be some conspicuous numerological phenomenon around each market event.

Numbers? Just pointing out that compared to defense stocks the Grain complex has made a large move.

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