R2 production at nearly 2,000 (VIN) units already

Our R2 orders tracker shows that R2 production is at nearly 2,000 units - as indicated by the latest VIN (1915) assigned to @SANZC02.

According to his post: https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/r2-orders-vin-deliveries-list-tracker-stats-.59905/post-1028359

Not to split hairs, but I had projections closer to 2700-3000 by now.. and they may actually be? Ppl are getting assigned VIN, but we don’t know the BUILD date yet? Do we?

My estimate/guestimate was ~ 1500-1700 to employees and “others”, and we‘re through that and seeing pretty limited still delivery to end customers, that ~ 250-300 range seems to fit at this point.. and NOW pretty much all should be customer orders and deliveries. With a few hold over Employee orders.

My Q4 EOY 26 target they need to hit is >1000/Week. They need to be easily >250-400 per WEEK now. I would expect 500-600/week now if they have any hope of truly getting to my 1000/week EOY 26 target.

tivoboy said:

Not to split hairs, but I had projections closer to 2700-3000 by now.. and they may actually be? Ppl are getting assigned VIN, but we don’t know the BUILD date yet? Do we?

My estimate/guestimate was ~ 1500-1700 to employees and “others”, and we‘re through that and seeing pretty limited still delivery to end customers, that ~ 250-300 range seems to fit at this point.. and NOW pretty much all should be customer orders and deliveries. With a few hold over Employee orders.

My Q4 EOY 26 target they need to hit is >1000/Week. They need to be easily >250-400 per WEEK now. I would expect 500-600/week now if they have any hope of truly getting to my 1000/week EOY 26 target.

Click to expand...

I was told my 1915 VIN is in final inspection and has a 7/15 delivery scheduled.

tivoboy said:

Not to split hairs, but I had projections closer to 2700-3000 by now.. and they may actually be? Ppl are getting assigned VIN, but we don’t know the BUILD date yet? Do we?

My estimate/guestimate was ~ 1500-1700 to employees and “others”, and we‘re through that and seeing pretty limited still delivery to end customers, that ~ 250-300 range seems to fit at this point.. and NOW pretty much all should be customer orders and deliveries. With a few hold over Employee orders.

My Q4 EOY 26 target they need to hit is >1000/Week. They need to be easily >250-400 per WEEK now. I would expect 500-600/week now if they have any hope of truly getting to my 1000/week EOY 26 target.

Click to expand...

VINs assigned does not equal VINs produced.

Administrator said:

Our R2 orders tracker shows that R2 production is at nearly 2,000 units - as indicated by the latest VIN (1915) assigned to @SANZC02.

According to his post: https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/r2-orders-vin-deliveries-list-tracker-stats-.59905/post-1028359

Click to expand...

Administrator said:

Our R2 orders tracker shows that R2 production is at nearly 2,000 units - as indicated by the latest VIN (1915) assigned to @SANZC02.

According to his post: https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/r2-orders-vin-deliveries-list-tracker-stats-.59905/post-1028359

Click to expand...

For your triangulation, I am VIN 1412 with delivery on June 30. I reserved in April of 25 but a R1T x 2 owner plus I had an non Rivian EV coming off lease and I loaded that document onto the website.

tivoboy said:

Not to split hairs, but I had projections closer to 2700-3000 by now.. and they may actually be? Ppl are getting assigned VIN, but we don’t know the BUILD date yet? Do we?

My estimate/guestimate was ~ 1500-1700 to employees and “others”, and we‘re through that and seeing pretty limited still delivery to end customers, that ~ 250-300 range seems to fit at this point.. and NOW pretty much all should be customer orders and deliveries. With a few hold over Employee orders.

My Q4 EOY 26 target they need to hit is >1000/Week. They need to be easily >250-400 per WEEK now. I would expect 500-600/week now if they have any hope of truly getting to my 1000/week EOY 26 target.

Click to expand...

Agree they need to be at 1000 a week for shift 1 by end of year. Why does that mean 400-600 now six months before end of year?

DuoRivian said:

Agree they need to be at 1000 a week for shift 1 by end of year. Why does that mean 400-600 now six months before end of year?

Click to expand...

Ramping production while maintaining quality is normally a smooth curve with limited step function.

You just proved out the Maths with your data points.. 400-600 now (my esimtate)
Six months to EOY
~ 100 per month increase / 25/week increase
ba dah bing ba dah boom - 1000 / week by end of year.

tivoboy said:

Ramping production while maintaining quality is normally a smooth curve with limited step function.

You just proved out the Maths with your data points.. 400-600 now (my esimtate)
Six months to EOY
~ 100 per month increase / 25/week increase
ba dah bing ba dah boom - 1000 / week by end of year.

Click to expand...

So how are you factoring the start of a second shift into those numbers, if at all?

@DuoRivian is saying Rivian need to be at 1,000/week at year for shift 1, which would be maxing out the factory capacity on R2 for a single shift; that max being based on a total annual 3-shift capacity for R2 of ~155k, or ~52k annual production per shift. This doesn't seem an unreasonable expectation a year after Rivian first started putting pre-prod units through the line. (Factory capacity at 215k could support more R2 if EDV and R1 production is reduced from ~60k in aggregate.)

But Rivian have stated they are expecting to start ramping shift 2 before the end of the year, so total end of year production should be >1,000 per week? Or are you assuming Rivian don't max out shift 1, so the aggregate of both shifts at end of 2026 is only 1,000/week?

I'm expecting Rivian to have significant production upside over their guidance of 20-25k for 2026, if only because they would be inviting lawsuits if they miss that guidance, regardless of safe harbor statements or risk factors in financial reporting. But perhaps more persuasively because they have a much more optimized, higher volume throughput production line vs initial R1 production and a much simpler vehicle with R2 to make on it.

RJ is nothing if not deliberate with his guidance. Assuming he sticks with 62-67k vehicles in 2026 - subtract 38k or so for vans and R1's (full year), add in 1k R2s (Q2) and you're left with with 23k R2s to be produced and delivered in the next 27 weeks. There was mention of a 2nd shift already forming a couple of months ago so I would think if not now, very soon there would be 2 shifts operating with the goal of producing 23k R2 on the low end and 28k R2 on the high end of guidance in 2026. Seems doable given that this would be approximately 35% of stated full capacity (155k R2s). Not a given for sure but doable if 3 shifts at full capacity are supposed to produce 2,800+ R2s per week next year.

“But I reserved my R2 on the first day and deserve mine now” - Veruca Salt