What will we learn on Thursday? A Predictions Thread...

[DuckTruck]

That could be my trucks theme song! Take a clip for my custom backup sound. ?

Or how about for that low-speed announcement from the front bumper to let those cellphone-obsessed pedestrians know that they may be eriviated from the gene pool if they're not careful. ? ??

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[Pedritho]

A friend of mine just got hired by Rivian and the role is something about logistics and deliveries, and his start date is June 7th. Hoping he is joining an already well established team and not just starting to plan logistics and deliveries while starting June 7th.

 

[cc84]

Looking for:
Some
Overwhelming
News
On
Friday
All
Because
It'll
Totally
Create
Happiness

I prefer the Disturbed version. Sounds great played loud.

Another week gone by.....I keep hearing this song.

Maybe the F-150 reveal has left them speechless.

 

[kanundrum]

FURDS are the new TURDS i suppose? Maybe?

 

[cc84]

When there is a lack of information coming forth, speculation creeps in, or it does for me. There has to be a reason. This is the 21st day of unnecessary suspense, where we haven't been contacted by a Guide.

Speculation: Waited for the Ford reveal, to see how many defectors (asking for refunds). Monitor forums to get an idea of how many have deposits on both vehicles. Then, see if they need to make final changes and options to their product, making it more attractive, while holding the defectors to a minimum. They'll lay out the game plan over the weekend, then come out with a bang Monday morning. This will leave 7 days remaining in the month of May.

 

[Riviot]

This will leave 7 days remaining in the month of May.

5 business days. I don't see guides sending emails over a holiday weekend, let alone answering phone calls.

 

[Friscorays]

Bummer about March 1, 2022.

 

[wdlikatruck]

5 business days. I don't see guides sending emails over a holiday weekend, let alone answering phone calls.

Or hugely disappointing holiday delay announcement . . . while folks are away . . .
Hope not, but that's the other potential play.

 

[wdlikatruck]

I doubt there is enough overlap between the average F150 Lightning buyer and the average R1T buyer to hurt Rivian in any significant way, especially since the Lightning is still at best a year out. However even if so, it is clearly way too late in the game for Rivian to make any significant changes. I think will have an update on the R1T interior in the next few hours.

Hmmm. I've been wondering the same thing, but the limited pricing reveals so far suggest that pricing for similarly equipped 300-mile Lariat will be very close to base 300-mile R1T (e.g., $53k XLT + extended battery likely ~ $60k, so bump Lariat another $7K and bingo). And the way Rivian appears to be dragging on delivery/production, volume production schedules look a lot closer than "first LE deliveries in June" might suggest . . .

 

[Friscorays]

Bummer about March 1, 2022.

 

[cc84]

I doubt there is enough overlap between the average F150 Lightning buyer and the average R1T buyer to hurt Rivian in any significant way, especially since the Lightning is still at best a year out......

You may be right. However, I suspect there are quite a few Rivian preorder holders that are a year away, or more, from taking possession too. I also suspect there are plenty of preorder holders that just prefer to drive a traditional pickup. That group may go with whichever is available to them first. If they ordered a Rivian strictly for offroading, then there won't be any defections. If anyone ordered Rivian because it resembles a traditional pickup, there will be defections. Mainly because of the bed length difference and Intelligent Backup Power.

I'm thinking most early preorder holders won't defect, but I suspect those a year out may have different thoughts. How many is the question.

If Rivian offers the Intelligent Backup Power that Ford is offering, it will go a long way in preventing defections. At this point, nothing can be done about the bed length and I don't know what is involved in the Intelligent Backup Power.

I'm wondering what the rate of orders are now, coming in for Rivian. Did they increase because of the Ford reveal, decrease, or remain steady? This we won't know, but Rivian will.

 

[SeaGeo]

You may be right. However, I suspect there are quite a few Rivian preorder holders that are a year away, or more, from taking possession too. I also suspect there are plenty of preorder holders that just prefer to drive a traditional pickup. That group may go with whichever is available to them first. If they ordered a Rivian strictly for offroading, then there won't be any defections. If anyone ordered Rivian because it resembles a traditional pickup, there will be defections. Mainly because of the bed length difference and Intelligent Backup Power.

I'm thinking most early preorder holders won't defect, but I suspect those a year out may have different thoughts. How many is the question.

Yep. I was too stupid to put a pre-order in while the LE was available, and finally made a decision to make the jump in mid-December. So I literally don't know if I can reasonably expect to be in a Q1 2022 batch, or if I should expect a Q4 2022 batch, or something in 2023. The F-150 is a way to manage that uncertainty.

 

[Riviot]

I suspect the lack of interior photos stems from the lack of quality in the pre-production interior. Every photo I've seen has looked wrinkled and low quality, like when I had the seats redone in my old BMW by a dude in his garage. Anyone else notice this? Lots of shots of exteriors, frames, etc in the factory, but no piles of seats, dashboards, other interior items...

 

[wdlikatruck]

I'm wondering what the rate of orders are now, coming in for Rivian. Did they increase because of the Ford reveal, decrease, or remain steady? This we won't know, but Rivian will.

I'll just offer two data points and a little commentary:
1. Ford (already) sells ~900,000 F150s annually.
2. Consider the amount of marketing by each of Ford and Rivian, just in the past 21 days, and the eyeballs on that marketing (part of the reason we are viewing this thread instead of Rivian's website is because Rivian is ~0).
So, in the Ford v. Rivian on market influence, uh, generally speaking, there is simply no contest.
Individual preferences will vary . . . but my point is that if you survey truck purchasers generally, Ford/Rivian is probably like a 99%/1% split in terms of consumer awareness, if that. And I would be the first to admit that I am nuts. If the XLT was 300 miles at $53k, I would immediately jump to the F150 Lightning. Since it's more likely $60k, I'm waiting to see if Rivian will actually deliver. But the more Rivian stalls (no pun intended) . . .

 

[wdlikatruck]

Yep. I was too stupid to put a pre-order in while the LE was available, and finally made a decision to make the jump in mid-December. So I literally don't know if I can reasonably expect to be in a Q1 2022 batch, or if I should expect a Q4 2022 batch, or something in 2023. The F-150 is a way to manage that uncertainty.

I'll just offer that LE reservation holders have no better visibility at this point . . . which is why we are losing our sh*t. Gideon has stopped taking our calls. (Now I'm going to try to stop posting.) Good luck!

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