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So No Deliveries in 2020?

skyote

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Great post @Hmp10 . I agree with your overall sentiment, & that's interesting about the EQC.

VW is a major automaker that's serious about EVs, so I wouldn't leave them out of the conversation. Ford will lead our domestic traditionals, but GM & Chrysler will be forced to follow...more exposure to EVs by the general public will begin to have a snowball effect within the next few years.

I'm actually really curious to see what GM is going to do with an electric Hummer brand, and supposedly there will be a commercial during the Super Bowl. I welcome another EV option in the truck & SUV space, and believe it will be vastly different from the Hummer of old. Possibly some minor styling cues (round headlights?), but I think we will see a modern reinvention of the brand.

Exciting times...
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RayzorBEV

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Lucid Air has also said its configurator would open up in April, and Tesla is reportedly trying to move the introduction of its Plaid drivetrain for the Models S and X up from late 2020 to midsummer. It seems a bit of a race is on to lock down orders and keep people away from the lure of competitors.

Jaguar dealers in the U.S. reportedly have as many I-Paces sitting on their lots (about 1,300) as have been sold thus far in the U.S. There are rumors that Mercedes' claim of battery shortages is a cover story for poor initial orders of its EQC SUV. The Audi E-tron is way behind the Tesla curve on range and performance. Honda and Toyota are asleep at the switch with EVs. Mazda has announced it is going to stick with ICEs exclusively. GM, in typical fashion, entered the EV market half-heartedly and will finally make its big leap years behind the competition. (I can't escape the impression that they've got another Saturn venture in the making, spending years in bureaucracy-bound planning, coming late to the game, and producing a so-so product. An electric Hummer? Really?)

I'm becoming more convinced that the future of EVs -- and the future of personal transportation -- is going to lie with the dedicated EV startups such as Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, Byton, etc. -- instead of with legacy automakers.

Ford, however, may well turn out to be the exception.
Agree. Smart move on Ford's part by linking up with Rivian...There are strong rumors that Rivian will become part of the Ford family eventually but independently operated, wink wink...
 

ElectricTrucking

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Agree. Smart move on Ford's part by linking up with Rivian...There are strong rumors that Rivian will become part of the Ford family eventually but independently operated, wink wink...
Strong rumors by who? RJ has made it very clear they will stay independent. Forum comments by people that are only trying to dominate a specific forum with many comments seem to enjoy feeling knowledgeable.
 

electruck

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I'm actually really curious to see what GM is going to do with an electric Hummer brand
I thought I read Hummer wasn't going to be a brand again but just a model under GMC.
 

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skyote

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I thought I read Hummer wasn't going to be a brand again but just a model under GMC.
You are correct, the Hummer vehicles will fall under GMC & their dealerships. Despite not being their own subsidiary, I still consider Hummer a brand.
 

DetailJohn

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This will probably put the R1S into late 2021 or maybe even 2022? I think launching two vehicles at nearly the same time will be problematic so it will probably be a little while.
 

Hmp10

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I believe Rivian put out a recent statement saying that R1T production would start in December of this year to be followed by start of R1S production in March 2021.
 

EyeOnRivian

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This will probably put the R1S into late 2021 or maybe even 2022? I think launching two vehicles at nearly the same time will be problematic so it will probably be a little while.
I believe Rivian put out a recent statement saying that R1T production would start in December of this year to be followed by start of R1S production in March 2021.
I haven't seen anything official from Rivian other than this tweet back in November 2019:

Rivian R1T R1S So No Deliveries in 2020? upload_2020-1-26_12-26-30


However, a few days ago (Jan 23rd) MotorTrend posted an article stating:

"Rivian bought the Normal plant from Mitsubishi in 2017 for $16 million and is preparing it to make an interesting assortment of vehicles. So far, all Rivian prototypes have been built at the Plymouth Engineering and Design Center, but pilot-build vehicles will go down the plant line in the third quarter, with full production of the Rivan R1T five-passenger electric pickup starting in December. About three months later, the Rivian R1S electric SUV, which has more content and a third row of seats, will roll off the same line. Scaringe says he wishes he could pull production forward but is mindful of the complexity. Also to be added to the factory's mix: an electric luxury SUV for Ford and a fleet of large electric commercial delivery vans for Amazon, to be branded Prime."

But it's not clear what source MotorTrend used for "About three months later" for the R1S going into production. Even if that information holds up then one could surmise March 2021 would be the earliest for the R1S to roll off the assembly line. However, I suspect those early R1S EVs will first go to employees, investors and any other early adopters before Rivian opened it up to the public. Then factor in an initial slow production rate, making production line tweaks along the way, before reaching a faster production rate that gets them closer to their 2021 annual estimated 20-40k production rate, most people probably won't see their R1S until more like early summer 2021. And I suspect that still ends up being on the optimistic side for the masses, meaning people that pre-ordered after 2018.
 

EyeOnRivian

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From what we have seen from Rivian, they are much more likely to follow the traditional approach. We will likely see the production line fired up to produce vehicles (that will be extensively tested but never be sold) about 6 months before actual production begins.
And perhaps sooner. I asked a Rivian rep (R1S team lead) at the Normal event last October when 3rd party crash testing would start. He said as early as 2Q 2020. So that still seems in line with targeting a December 2020 production launch.
 

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ElectricTrucking

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Ahead of launching its consumer electric vehicles, the company is planning to open physical stores in the Bay Area and other cities in California, which Scaringe describes as Rivian’s “biggest market by far.”

“The first vehicles off the production line will be going to places where they can be sold,” which means starting in California, Scaringe said.

I guess it is screw the early reservation holders if they aren't in CA.
 

Hmp10

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If you want to make claims like these, you need to do a little research first (and hopefully point to or reference your sources).
Inside EV's reports 2,594 I Pace were sold in the US in 2019, and Cars.com and other sites show current inventory at about 700.
This is source of my comment about I-Pace sales: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/1...shed-dealer-inventory-exceeds-6-month-supply/

The relevant language in the article is:

"Be that as it may, sales of the I-Pace have been, ummm, disappointing. According to Inside EVs, “During the first six months of this year, Jaguar sold some 9,077 I-PACE, including 1,309 in the U.S., but according to the latest news, dealers in the U.S. have 1,338 I-PACE in inventory. That would be worth six months of sales of a car that has been available for just 9 months.”

It was an August 2019 article, so year-end numbers were certainly up. But the number of unsold cars on U.S. lots at the time of the article was slightly greater than the number of vehicles sold in the U.S. to that point.

If GM is going to get serious about EV's, they've got to do a far better job of marketing them than they did with the Bolt. I called two area dealers in an attempt to test drive one, and I had to explain to both dealers what a Bolt was and that GM actually was producing such a car. There were also press reports of people finding them on dealer lots but being unable to test drive them because the dealers didn't have them charged. Teslas are all over the place in southwest Florida, but I've yet to see a Bolt. Anecdotal I know, but still . . . .

As for the EQC, I did not state anything as fact. I clearly identified my comment as based on a rumor.
 
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davrow_R1T

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Ahead of launching its consumer electric vehicles, the company is planning to open physical stores in the Bay Area and other cities in California, which Scaringe describes as Rivian’s “biggest market by far.”

“The first vehicles off the production line will be going to places where they can be sold,” which means starting in California, Scaringe said.

I guess it is screw the early reservation holders if they aren't in CA.
I don't think that is what he means at all, even if it is what he said.

He's talking about potential buyers. Reservation holders are already buyers, so don't need stores.
 

RayzorBEV

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Ahead of launching its consumer electric vehicles, the company is planning to open physical stores in the Bay Area and other cities in California, which Scaringe describes as Rivian’s “biggest market by far.”

“The first vehicles off the production line will be going to places where they can be sold,” which means starting in California, Scaringe said.

I guess it is screw the early reservation holders if they aren't in CA.
Guess we Texans don't matter to Rivian, even though we have the largest Cali transplant; some 80k Californians moved to TX each year for the last few years now. Texas should now be called Calitexas or Texfornia. Based on this, we should also get 1st dip with the Rivian R1T!!
 

ajdelange

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Every EV manufacturer besides Tesla (including Rivian) is facing the same hurdle: a robust fast charging network.
Amen to that!

Most people will rarely (if ever) make a long road trip in their EV,
I strongly disagree with that. I suppose it really depends on how you define "long". To my way of thinking I guess that would be anything over 500 miles.

...but the freedom to do so is a very important consideration. Particularly in the US, it ranks as close to a "basic human right" in the minds of many.
Whether or not it is considered a right I couldn't say but if we want people to replace their ICE cars with BEVs we have to accept that range anxiety must go away to the extent that potential buyers don't see any difference with respect to this between the two types of vehicles.

It likely makes more sense to rent a vehicle for occasional long trips than consistently haul around huge batteries "just in case".
I don't want to have to rent a car for a road trip and I don't have to with a Tesla. And that includes going places where the SC network does not reach. Whatever the mission (local trip or road trip) I just want to be able to jump into the car and go. A year's experience with Tesla has shown me that I can in fact do that but I would not expect someone who has no experience with Tesla nor all Tesla drivers to necessarily accept that. Would I like more range? Certainly - it's one of the reasons for reserving an R1T and, subsequently a CyberTruck. Note that in one year the advertised range of these similar sized vehicles went up by 100 miles. I by no means think that the battery technology advancement curve is flattening at this point.

Another thing to bear in mind when thinking about trucks and SUVs is that the larger batteries are not there solely for road trip range. They are also there to enable towing just as the larger gas tanks are in ICE vehicles used for this purpose.


Audi offers free rental days with their e-tron (and other vehicles). Fiat did that with their 500e as well.
That's because those cars have, in terms of today's technology, pretty poor range and limited charging infrastructure.

This is likely the biggest barrier to widespread adoption - we'll see if this years EA build-out this gets it to the point where the Supercharger was 3 years ago. They have a lot of catching up to do.
Tesla's huge advantage in the marketplace today is that it has batteries, the means to charge them and an insured supply of them and the technologists to advance them within house. The other companies do indeed have a lot of catching up to do. I don't want to see Tesla emerge as the only player on the field though it is clear they will dominate for some years. I guess Tesla has me convinced that starting with a clean sheet of paper, i.e. free of the strictures imposed by traditional ways of producing motor vehicles, is the path to success in BEVs. As Rivian has taken this same approach but without gimmicks like making the vehicles out of plastic found on the beach or looking like a WWII Jeep, I have more confidence in them than the others in the field. The hefty infusions of cash help too. The dead elephant in the room is, of course, the EA charging network. Running the trips I do with the Tesla through ABRP using the Rivian model makes it look as if those trips are doable if not as conveniently as with a Tesla. I expect things to improve here but I am still a bit concerned.



From what we have seen from Rivian, they are much more likely to follow the traditional approach. We will likely see the production line fired up to produce vehicles (that will be extensively tested but never be sold) about 6 months before actual production begins.
They have already done quite a bit of testing with the Ford mules, the run up the South American continent etc.
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