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Several Concerns

ajdelange

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Like I said I am living off grid for quite some time and your calculations seem as theoretical as some of the range figures of EVs. A 10 KW array is 33 300 W panels. You gotta have the space to install them.
Well yes that's true. Roof, frame on the ground...

When it comes to how much the Rivian will consume then, naturally, I have to be theoretical. Were I to do the calculations based on my experiences driving an X for a couple of years then my calcs would be based on experience. My calculations on solar are based on a couple of years living with solar.

I have a 4.8 KW array on my garage and on a hot Socal day I can produce 24 KW. Heat drastically reduces the output of solar panels! Dust too.
I'd look into that. Twenty-four kWh from a 4.8 kW system implies only 5 hr FSE. In the summer time in your location I'd expect more like 7 or at least 6. I get 6.7 in Northern Virginia on a clear, cloudless day (which is rare). Heat does reduce performance but not by that much. About 0.46%/K. One hundred thirteen °F is 20K above the rating temperature so you should only lose 9.2% so that assuming FSE is in fact 7 hr in your area you should be getting 6.356 if heat is the only loss factor. Dust/pollen (what I get) just doesn't seem to do that much to production. Rain washes it off sufficiently. But of course one of the advantages of having the panels on the ground is that it is easy to clean them off. What does have an appreciable effect is haze. Perhaps you have that.


I need 12 KW[h] to run my house and recharge my batteries (that is without AC), which leaves 12 KW[h] max for charging the vehicle.
If I go 80 miles in a RIVIAN (with 21" wheels without off-road tires, because KO2s will most likely cut the range ) I will use 37 KW min and it will take more than 3 days to recharge the battery, or to put it in a different perspective I can charge app 25 miles per day, which for me is barely the distance to the next reasonable charger.
If you drive the average 10,000 mi/yr and if the Rivian does indeed use 0.5 kWh/mi then clearly the Rivian will consume 5,000 kWh/yr. But that's 5000/365.25/24 = 0.570386 kW average which is 13.7 kWh/da. The 12 kWh you have over is almost enough, on an average basis.

The reason I go on at length here is because I see situations like yours as a challenge. No, the challenge is not to try to convince you to change your mind but to see if I can come up with solutions that might solve your problem if only to my satisfaction. If anything I post is informative or helps you in any way that's great. I'll also note that I am very interested in hearing other people's particulars so thanks for responding.

Twelve kWh/da is going to be about 24 miles worth. Less if you have to drive in loose sand and you have to allow a little for phantom drain. That would be enough for me as is because I don't drive every day (retired). But I would definitely want more. I think it goes almost without saying that if you add an appliance that doubles your electrical consumption that you need to increase your service. Which, as you are off grid means you will have to do it. Bringing an appliance that requires, on average 13 kWh/da, into a household that produces 24 kWh a day is very marginal. I added 45 panels (13 kw) to cover my Rivian (and X). With my nominal 5 hr FSE per day that gives me 13*5 = 65 kWh which is enough for about 130 miles for the Rivian and about 230 for the X. Now that ain't cheap. At a bit over $2/W that's $26K. But it does you no good to have panels that produce 65kWh/da if you can't capture it so you really need about 65 kWh worth of storage. That's 5 Powerwalls and they are now $7500 a piece. This is definitely not in the spirit of Henry David Thoreau!


Check the the charging station map for the California desert or Utah (not even mentioning Baja California ), unless Rivian puts in quite a few chargers, and I made some suggestions in another thread, It will be very easy to run out of power in the boondocks.
I did and the first thing I see is a 150 kW EA station in Palm Springs only about 30 mi from Pioneertown. And a couple of Level 2 J1772's in Yucca Valley and TNP.


I really like the outside of the R1S as well as the off-road capability and I actually tried to talk myself into buying it but for where I live and what I am doing it seems totally impractical.
Well as I said I'm not agreeing or disagreeing. It's your decision after all but I would say that operating a 500 Wh/mi BEV in your circumstances would present some challenges. These could be covered with an expediture of a couple of hundred K but you don't seem inclined to do that.


In regard to the range, there have been countless posts in this forum dealing with this Subject and a lot of them reflect the "angst" I was referring to.
I'll note again that this angst is quite normal and I think to be expected. Once you experience BEV operation it tends to go away. There are those who just don't "get it" and BEV aren't for them. Now that's true within the Tesla SC system. The CCS network isn't up to the Tesla system yet.
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ajdelange

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e get the most powerful now if you want the longer range and power. That makes no sense to me. If Rivian comes up with a solid state or another more powerful battery makeup why can't you just interchange those with your old ones or even the ones that came with the higher priced model??
Well you could of course but it doesn't, depending on the magnitude and nature of the improvement, often make economic sense to do so. The first Teslas used NiCds I believe. One could probably modify the BMS, packaging, charger, cooling system and system software to accommodate Li ion and some guy in his garage is probably doing that. But it would be difficult to do all that to all the Roadsters out there at a price you would be likely to consider acceptable.

Sounds like intentional obsolescence and without more detailed info on these issues I am not sure how anyone would not be concerned.
Those of us who understand something of battery technology have no concerns. It is pretty clear to us why this is the way things are.
 

Smithery

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Well you could of course but it doesn't, depending on the magnitude and nature of the improvement...
Indeed. Tesla batteries - from the individual cells all the way up to the complete packs and BMS - have evolved steadily since 2008.

There was never any single revolution. But there was so much steady evolution that comparing a 2021 Model S Plaid pack to an original Roadster pack would be wild.

The first Teslas used NiCds I believe.
Certainly not - The pre-production Roadsters had Lithium-Ion at least two years before they hit the market
Source

BUT...

One could probably modify the BMS, packaging, charger, cooling system and system software to accommodate Li ion and some guy in his garage is probably doing that. But it would be difficult to do all that to all the Roadsters out there at a price you would be likely to consider acceptable.
The Roadster is a perfect case study in this, because Tesla themselves did exactly what you say

The Roadster 3.0 upgrade bumped the original Roadster's 53kwh pack to almost 80kwh - with improved chemistry, cooling, and BMS - bumping the range from 240mi (when new...) to 340mi.

BUT - It cost $29k per customer and Tesla didn't make a profit on them (probably was done at a loss). They offered it "as a token of appreciate to early supporters"

And customers who did it did so because they were protecting a $130k collectors item that had finished its VERY limited production run.

The design and R&D of an upgraded pack for a Rivian would make it so expensive that so few people would partake that... it just wouldn't be worth it.

I firmly believe there will eventually be a healthy 3rd party market for battery refreshes if not upgrades.... but only for popular models of cars.
 

cohall

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Many of us cannot see what you were discussing with @cohall as he ignores anyone that ruffles his feathers and he selects the option that also prevents the ignored users from seeing anything he posts even when quoted in a discussion.
Don't you go dragging me into this :)

I think you meant to tag Commidore, not me. First I'm seeing this discussion.
 

ajdelange

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Certainly not - The pre-production Roadsters had Lithium-Ion at least two years before they hit the market
Quite right. They started with an AGM battery pack and replaced it with Lithium early on. I trust the point isn't lost.
 

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DucRider

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Retrofitting the Roadster with a newer/bigger battery is feasible since the entire production run was 2500 (and only a fraction of those opted to pay for the upgrade).

A mass market vehicle is an entirely different story.

People have certainly upgraded the Sparrow from lead acid to Lithium. Later versions were offered that way after Mike Myers bought the company (he was hooked after using one in Goldmember).

People also convert the 1st gen RAV4 EV from NiMH to lithium, but they do this on their own - Toyota doesn't offer the service.

Bottom line is if you want to keep and upgrade an EV when new battery tech/chemistries become available as commodities, you can get it done. But like doing a resto-mod on an old Vette to drop in a new LSx motor, the cost effectiveness will be questionable.

For years, people have also swapped the ICE out of vehicles and replaced it with the newer tech of Electric Motors. Originally this was out of necessity since nobody manufactured them in volume, but now it is rare (too costly) unless it is a labor of love or someone is looking for extreme performance. OEMs are starting to catch on - GM has shown the eCOPO motor as a drop in for a small block.
 

ajdelange

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Retrofitting the Roadster with a newer/bigger battery is feasible since the entire production run was 2500 (and only a fraction of those opted to pay for the upgrade).
If it is feasible for a short run it is equally feasible for millions of vehicles. In fact more so from the financial point of view as there would be economies of scale. What the OP needs to understand is that even with these economies of scale very few would want to pay the freight. This means Rivian won't be interested in doing this but there proabably will be custom shops that will upgrade the battery 7 years hence to whatever is the hot tech at that time. Few will use their services so the economies of scale wont be realized. Most will just buy a new truck.
 
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Casotakar

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Deposit is refundable. You'll get the info you seek, this year. But if you want your R1S in the next couple years you should reserve now. Waiting will only delay your delivery.
Deposits are refundable but not if...
 

CommodoreAmiga

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Deposits are refundable but not if...
Are you suggesting that Rivian would just disappear overnight? The company that has several billion dollars of Ford and Amazon’s money?

That’s too cynical, even for me.
 

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ajdelange

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It just occurred to me that I am still driving a Land Cruiser that is 29 years old and a SR5 that is 27. One of the LandCruiser side mirrors broke and I was able to get a replacement part for that. But I didn't try to replace it with one of the newer ones with the park assist camera in it.

OTOH squirrels ate through the rubber filler hose to the SR5 gas tank. The replacement part for that is not available.
 
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Casotakar

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Are you suggesting that Rivian would just disappear overnight? The company that has several billion dollars of Ford and Amazon’s money?

That’s too cynical, even for me.
I don't think Rivian will go away and any indication otherwise should not be interpreted that way. I just mean I need to wait and see how the roll out will proceed and get customer and expert opinions after both models have worn some tread in real world environment.
 

ajdelange

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That's really only prudent. Only a fool would buy a low serial number high tech device. As is evident there are a whole lot of fools on this site. Lest there be any doubt I am firmly at the top of the list.
 

CommodoreAmiga

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I don't think Rivian will go away and any indication otherwise should not be interpreted that way. I just mean I need to wait and see how the roll out will proceed and get customer and expert opinions after both models have worn some tread in real world environment.
Okay, but my point is you could make a reservation and hold your place in (a long) line while you get that information.
 
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Casotakar

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Okay, but my point is you could make a reservation and hold your place in (a long) line while you get that information.
I came within one click reserving one. Probably will reserve after September. Maybe more info will come out, but I think I will do it anyway since I do want to get in line. Do you think I will get it before the end of next year if I reserve it in September of this year??
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