RJ Hint's there may be a demand problem.....

[mini2nut]

IMO the biggest challenge to R1T demand hasn’t arrived yet. It is a competitor called the Cybertruck.

If Tesla decides to price the Dual Motor Cybertruck at $64,990 it’s going to take the wind out of R1T sales. I’m confident this threat has been discussed among the leadership team and what their strategy would be such as lowering pricing, redesigning the comical front end to look more aggressive, etc.

We will find out this fall during the 2024 Cybertruck delivery event with some early 1st day reservation holders. Pricing and specifications are expected to be announced during the event.

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[Mark_AZR1T]

Rivian is in the best position of any newcomer from many perspectives with the absolute best two-product mix, one of which I drive and the other is coming s00n to my home. They need to shore up quality on their deliverables and get to 1500 vehicles a week as quickly and efficiently as possible....

 

[usofrob]

I feel like during the last recession there became more of a market for really expensive cars, like super cars. So, it's possible that to weather this recession, Rivian should release an ultra-expensive version. Sort of the opposite of a loss leader. Maybe fast track the quad enduro motor.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

IMO the biggest challenge to R1T demand hasn’t arrived yet. It is a competitor called the Cybertruck.

If Tesla decides to price the Dual Motor Cybertruck at $64,990 it’s going to take the wind out of R1T sales. I’m confident this threat has been discussed among the leadership team and what their strategy would be such as lowering pricing, redesigning the comical front end to look more aggressive, etc.

We will find out this fall during the 2024 Cybertruck delivery event with some early 1st day reservation holders. Pricing and specifications are expected to be announced during the event.

Just like it was supposed to be last year and the year before and the year before that. I’m not remotely worried about a vehicle that doesn’t have prices or final specifications even published yet.

 

[ironpig]

In 2018 when Rivian unveiled their truck they talked about a starting range of 60k. Then they went through the obvious start up woes, covid, supply chain and now soaring interest rates and they are trying to market a $100k truck in an economy that is cooling off.

There are a lot of people who are looking at their car purchases differently than they were last year. it's been illuminating to see how people cross shop an R1 with upcoming electric non-adventure SUVs. I'm curious to see how the R1S does when more of those models are available and customers aren't buying it just because it's a 7 person electric SUV. Then again that "aspirational adventure" is still a big driver of SUV sales even if the buyers never actually go Off-road.

Demand may be an issue but I don't think we'll really know until next year. Right now they still have a ton of people waiting for trucks.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

IMO the biggest challenge to R1T demand hasn’t arrived yet. It is a competitor called the Cybertruck.

If Tesla decides to price the Dual Motor Cybertruck at $64,990 it’s going to take the wind out of R1T sales. I’m confident this threat has been discussed among the leadership team and what their strategy would be such as lowering pricing, redesigning the comical front end to look more aggressive, etc.

We will find out this fall during the 2024 Cybertruck delivery event with some early 1st day reservation holders. Pricing and specifications are expected to be announced during the event.

Give me a break. The CT is going to need to undercut the Rivian by a lot more than $5k to be a threat for people cross shopping the Rivian.

 

[TxBeachRivian]

Give me a break. The CT is going to need to undercut the Rivian by a lot less than $5k to be a threat for people cross shopping the Rivian.

Yeah got to agree with this. The CT may take some orders from Rivian, but it is not an option for a lot of customers. The styling greatly limits its appeal to many. I am sure it will be collectible, but I am not sure it will be universally adoptable.

 

[mkg3]

I do believe demand is an issue for Rivian. As noted earlier backlog is different than demand. That said, Rivian stopped posting/disclosing backlog and gave a reason that it discouraged new orders. Maybe - maybe not. My sense is that backlog is declining faster than deliveries.

Here on a Rivian forum, it is no surprise that people believe Rivian sell through is very high from preorder to delivery. The forum is a very small sampling of the preorder holders made up of Rivian enthusiast and supporters. I believe many preorders have been cancelled as new entrants have come by. Between the interest rate hike causing monthly payments go bo beyond affordability, general inflation, and loss (partial) of tax credit, people are/starting to reconsider, especially with ICE alternatives with lots of incentives now.

The nation has had over 100K high paying, tech/SW and white collar layoffs in the last 9 months. The very likely people that would buy EVs.

The macroeconomic impact is lagging and the worse is yet to show itself. Meanwhile, Rivian cannot get their vehicles delivered fast enough before people changing their minds/find alternatives.

I know everyone here is happy to take delivery and many pay outright for the vehicle. Just because the forum members do this does not mean the majority of the preorder population will feel and act the same about Rivian.

 

[Throwdown]

I'd say a huge demand issue is people dropping their reservations due to no quad/max and still no max pack period. How many people were waiting for quad max and decided to not buy an R1 at all?

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I'd say a huge demand issue is people dropping their reservations due to no quad/max and still no max pack period. How many people were waiting for quad max and decided to not buy an R1 at all?

Rivian implied that max pack reservations represented a relatively small portion of the overall. Even if all of those decided not to convert to a dual/max, they still would have a backlog through 2023 and well into 2024 based on outstanding orders from Q3 2022.

 

[ironpig]

I'd say a huge demand issue is people dropping their reservations due to no quad/max and still no max pack period. How many people were waiting for quad max and decided to not buy an R1 at all?

it's definitely a few, but I'm not sure it's as many as those that cancelled because they were already stretching to spend $80-90k on a truck before interest rates went up and the credits came down.

Currently there is no competitor for a Max Pack R1 on the market so if those people cancel their reservations, what are they buying instead?

On the flip side, lots of first time EV buyers who reserved a Rivian (but don't need the over engineered adventure capability) can't afford one now and are looking at the other cheaper EV options.

 

[ironpig]

I do believe demand is an issue for Rivian. As noted earlier backlog is different than demand. That said, Rivian stopped posting/disclosing backlog and gave a reason that it discouraged new orders. Maybe - maybe not. My sense is that backlog is declining faster than deliveries.

Here on a Rivian forum, it is no surprise that people believe Rivian sell through is very high from preorder to delivery. The forum is a very small sampling of the preorder holders made up of Rivian enthusiast and supporters. I believe many preorders have been cancelled as new entrants have come by. Between the interest rate hike causing monthly payments go bo beyond affordability, general inflation, and loss (partial) of tax credit, people are/starting to reconsider, especially with ICE alternatives with lots of incentives now.

The nation has had over 100K high paying, tech/SW and white collar layoffs in the last 9 months. The very likely people that would buy EVs.

The macroeconomic impact is lagging and the worse is yet to show itself. Meanwhile, Rivian cannot get their vehicles delivered fast enough before people changing their minds/find alternatives.

I know everyone here is happy to take delivery and many pay outright for the vehicle. Just because the forum members do this does not mean the majority of the preorder population will feel and act the same about Rivian.

Spot on.

 

[Throwdown]

it's definitely a few, but I'm not sure it's as many as those that cancelled because they were already stretching to spend $80-90k on a truck before interest rates went up and the credits came down.

Currently there is no competitor for a Max Pack R1 on the market so if those people cancel their reservations, what are they buying instead?

On the flip side, lots of first time EV buyers who reserved a Rivian (but don't need the over engineered adventure capability) can't afford one now and are looking at the other cheaper EV options.

I would say not buying anything and waiting for something else. If the max isn't 180kw or it takes too long as soon as the ram is available I'll swap.

 

[Throwdown]

Rivian implied that max pack reservations represented a relatively small portion of the overall. Even if all of those decided not to convert to a dual/max, they still would have a backlog through 2023 and well into 2024 based on outstanding orders from Q3 2022.

That could be true, but they'll never show that data. I'm sure they've lost a bunch of reservations from people being tired of waiting and losing build options.

 

[ironpig]

I would say not buying anything and waiting for something else. If the max isn't 180kw or it takes too long as soon as the ram is available I'll swap.

I’m waiting to see where the long range RAM is priced because I think it will likely Be a good product and we tow a bit, but I’ve already enjoyed my Rivian for almost a year now and will get at least another year of EV trucking with my R1T before I can even purchase the Ram. (I do have a RAM reservation).

If I needed consistent long range towing I don’t think I would buy any EV truck. I’d just stick with diesel. But for everything else, the Rivian range has been more than enough for me. I’m glad I didn’t wait for a max pack.

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