Predictions for the Q1 Earnings Call today?

[virgnia_rivian]

Still burning through over $1B per quarter. They have about 1 year left in cash now. Hopefully, the retooling makes a significant difference. Regardless, I see a noticeable dilution coming soon.

It’s in their investor letter. $7.8 Billion in cash, $9 Billion in total liquidity.
Read the investor letter.

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[R1TS]

1 year ? You mean 2! They have almost $8bn in the bank

($1.5B) x 5 = ($7.5B)

5 quarters.

 

[jeeden]

How about that photo on the last page tho

 

[virgnia_rivian]

($1.5B) x 5 = ($7.5B)

5 quarters.

You should read the investor letter and their forecast for reduced capital expenditures through remaining 2024.

Plus this:
The first quarter of 2024 gross profit per vehicle delivered was $(38,784), which includes $15,455 of depreciation and $1,693 of stock-based compensation expense. Our results were negatively impacted by $9,346 per unit delivered, primarily relatedto various supplier and other costs incurred in advance of the new technology changes and parts integration into the R1 platform as part of our cost of revenue efficiency initiatives. As a resultof the retooling upgrade, we expect significant improvement in the material, depreciation, and conversion cost of our vehicles and remain confident in our path to achieving modest gross profit in the fourth quarter of this year.

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

($1.5B) x 5 = ($7.5B)

5 quarters.

Read it first! They will be margin positive in Q4 which means the cash burn will gradually go down by 300-400million every quarter.

 

[jeeden]

($1.5B) x 5 = ($7.5B)

5 quarters.

Well either way you guys count it, it comes down to 4th quarter. If they make a profit as they say they will, they will have about $6B in left and no longer be loosing money. They need some of that for the Capital to get R2 running (but they say in the report their Cap for R2 has dropped now that they are building it in IL, not be to be confused with the savings from not building GA right now).

IF it goes according to plan, come January, they should have $6B cash, be breaking even or making a little money, and be spending about $1.5B tooling the plant for R2 which should be profitable out of the gate.

 

[evguy]

From the investor letter:

"We believe that the operating plan for our Normal factory at 215,000 units of annual production while executing against our cost efficiency roadmap will allow Rivian to generate positive free cash flow excluding growth capital investments in new production capacity and tooling."

• Message to future partners/investors: Your money will go to completing the GA plant, not soaking up more losses.

"We expect these upgrades to further reduce the material and conversion cost of our vehicles as we exit 2024; however, in the near-term we expect the planned plant retooling upgrade to negatively impact our vehicle production and cost of revenues as a result of the direct downtime and less efficient absorption of labor, overhead, and depreciation associated with lower volume"

• Translation: Financial performance may get worse in Q2/Q3 before it gets significantly better in Q4

 

[pricedm]

Q1 24 Investor Letter:
https://downloads.rivian.com/2md5qh...35921cd9c8c7/RIVN_1Q24_Shareholder_Letter.pdf

some bummers as well as positive highlights:

negative:
"We experienced a loss from operations in the first quarter of 2024 totaling $(1,484) million, as compared to $(1,433) million in the same period last year."

"Our net loss for the first quarter of 2024 was $(1,446) million as compared to $(1,349) million for the same period last year."

" The inventory as of March 31, 2024 was written down by $328 million for LCNRV. Additionally there were LCNRV losses related to firm purchase commitments of $45 million. We recorded a $150 million charge to reflect the LCNRV of inventory and losses on firm purchase commitments as of March 31, 2024."

Positive:

" We also announced that we will start R2 production in Normal which we expect to drive greater capital efficiency with over $2.25 billion of savings from plan, enable production to start in the first half of 2026, and reduce risk to launch the platform and associated ramp. We believe that the operating plan for our Normal factory at 215,000 units of annual production while executing against our cost efficiency roadmap will allow Rivian to generate positive free cash flow excluding growth capital investments in new production capacity and tooling. "

" Total expected Normal capacity following R2 launch and plant changes: 215,000 units of total annual capacity across R1T, R1S, EDV, RCV, and R2. This includes up to 155,000 units of R2."

" As a result of the retooling upgrade, we expect significant improvement in the material, depreciation, and conversion cost of our vehicles and remain confident in our path to achieving modest gross profit in the fourth quarter of this year."

" Thus far, consistent with our expectations, we have hit all major milestones associated with the plant retooling upgrade, and we are reaffirming our 2024 annual guidance provided during our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 earnings call of 57,000 total units of production and $(2,700) million in adjusted EBITDA."

"... reduce the capital expenditures required to launch R2. Because of this we are lowering our capital expenditures guidance to $1,200 million, a reduction of $550 million. We also expect savings from moving the R2 launch to Normal to impact 2025 and 2026."

 

[Rividiculous]

Did anyone predict a total lack of news as to when the refreshed/retooled R1 would come out and what it would include?

So far, those predicting mere cost cutting (and some new architecture) seem to have the lead!

 

[NY_Rob]

some bummers as well as positive highlights:

negative:
"We experienced a loss from operations in the first quarter of 2024 totaling $(1,484) million, as compared to $(1,433) million in the same period last year."

"Our net loss for the first quarter of 2024 was $(1,446) million as compared to $(1,349) million for the same period last year."

" The inventory as of March 31, 2024 was written down by $328 million for LCNRV. Additionally there were LCNRV losses related to firm purchase commitments of $45 million. We recorded a $150 million charge to reflect the LCNRV of inventory and losses on firm purchase commitments as of March 31, 2024."

Look on the bright side....

AMC has purchased the rights for the Snowpiecer series and will air the finished but never shown 4th season of Snowpiecer in July of this year! ?

https://deadline.com/2024/05/snowpiercer-season-4-premiere-date-amc-photos-trailer-1235906431/

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

We held 2 days above $10, I guess that the best we will do for the rest of 2024. Really disappointed by the management team!

 

[MidnightRivian]

You gotta love all the armchair analysts and dumb short hedgefund wanna be pump and dump employees / stock bashers that show up around earnings season.

Its very telling when their entire history on this forum is related to stocks.

Tell me you’re short on $RIVN without telling me you’re short.

 

[evguy]

Did anyone predict a total lack of news as to when the refreshed/retooled R1 would come out and what it would include?

So far, those predicting mere cost cutting (and some new architecture) seem to have the lead!

Yes, but if it is any type of "refresh," they won't promote it until they've sold off existing inventory. I'm still hoping for a broader R1S lineup that reduces entry price (LFP standard battery?) while maintaining avg selling price.

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

Rivian call vs Lucid call is like day and night. I honestly think the stock is targeted by some lobbies (maybe trump and Saudis )?

Claire was amazing with numbers and path to profitability!

 

[jeeden]

Rivian call vs Lucid call is like day and night. I honestly think the stock is targeted by some lobbies (maybe trump and Saudis )?

Claire was amazing with numbers and path to profitability!

Eh.. I feel like that with every call. I've always said that Disney can get on the call and say that they found a diamond mind surrounded by a gold mine on their property and the questions for the entire call would be people whining about how the diamonds and gold nuggets weren't big enough and the stock would probably drop.

Pretty much all roads lead to stock being beat up except for a true surprised that just blows the doors off of even the craziest prediction.

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