Possible surge in Rivian demand with lower battery prices and arrival of R2

[Harvest]

I was reading an article on the Electrek.com website this evening about how significantly battery prices are expected to decline in the next two years, to $99 per kw. Other automotive industry people have stated in the recent past that achieving that battery price level will make EVs price competitive with ICE vehicles. Since the R2 will reach market in theory in early 2026, the timing will be good for it to be competitive with vehicles such as the Honda CRV, Toyota RAV4, etc. Maybe not the lowest priced trim levels but the more popular higher trim levels.

Also, by that point, the EV charging situation will be much improved, not only from gaining access to the Tesla network but the huge surge in construction of charging station with Inflation Reduction Act spending.

Thus, I think Rivian will be very well position to sell a much larger volume of R2 vehicles than R1, assuming they are a compelling product, which I think they will be. The company has already demonstrated it's ability to come out with a good design, and RJ Scaringe seems very excited about what they have coming.

All this could lead to the Rivian stock price really taking off in 2026 or 2027, which will be good because it will allow the company to continue growing.

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[VSG]

I don't disagree with any of this, but it's also pretty obvious ...

Rivian was eating the cost of the increased battery prices during the pandemic. They're not going to decrease MSRP because of decreasing battery prices, because this is part of how they will increase their margins and make up for their initial losses.

R1 was never designed for the mass market - this is their flagship, high-end product. R2 IS intended to reach a broader market, but I would not classify it as being a low-end ICE competitor either. There's plenty of room in the market for a better $40K or even $50k vehicle, and Rivian can be profitable even just sticking to the R1 series.

The R2 is not *required* to reach profitability, but certainly having a more reasonably priced EV will allow Rivian to reach a much wider audience and if they can sell the R2 for more than they make it, should allow for much more growth.

The reason the stock will take off is because of the electric van, however. Now that they are free from Amazon exclusivity, the EDV half (yes half) of their business is unlocked and now they can utilize that production capacity they set aside for vans increase their sales by a huge amount. The EDV half of their production capacity is already profitable, and selling more than 10k a year that Amazon wanted will be a huge win in 2024.

 

[Riviot]

The reason the stock will take off is because of the electric van, however. Now that they are free from Amazon exclusivity, the EDV half (yes half) of their business is unlocked and now they can utilize that production capacity they set aside for vans increase their sales by a huge amount. The EDV half of their production capacity is already profitable, and selling more than 10k a year that

I see your RCV and raise you Foxtron.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...als-electric-cargo-van-updates-on-foxtron-evs

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I see your RCV and raise you Foxtron.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...als-electric-cargo-van-updates-on-foxtron-evs

Let us know when it actually exists and can be purchased.

 

[Riviot]

Let us know when it actually exists and can be purchased.

Kenny Rogers said it best

 

[VSG]

see your RCV and raise you Foxtron.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...als-electric-cargo-van-updates-on-foxtron-evs

I call your Foxconn and raise you (lower you?) Lordstown.

 

[Charlie H]

I don't disagree with any of this, but it's also pretty obvious ...

Rivian was eating the cost of the increased battery prices during the pandemic. They're not going to decrease MSRP because of decreasing battery prices, because this is part of how they will increase their margins and make up for their initial losses.

R1 was never designed for the mass market - this is their flagship, high-end product. R2 IS intended to reach a broader market, but I would not classify it as being a low-end ICE competitor either. There's plenty of room in the market for a better $40K or even $50k vehicle, and Rivian can be profitable even just sticking to the R1 series.

The R2 is not *required* to reach profitability, but certainly having a more reasonably priced EV will allow Rivian to reach a much wider audience and if they can sell the R2 for more than they make it, should allow for much more growth.

The reason the stock will take off is because of the electric van, however. Now that they are free from Amazon exclusivity, the EDV half (yes half) of their business is unlocked and now they can utilize that production capacity they set aside for vans increase their sales by a huge amount. The EDV half of their production capacity is already profitable, and selling more than 10k a year that Amazon wanted will be a huge win in 2024.

I'm looking to purchase a couple of vans for my company with gas going all over the place and the fact that I can put solar on my bld I see this a a great savings down the road

 

[R1TS]

I was reading an article on the Electrek.com website this evening about how significantly battery prices are expected to decline in the next two years, to $99 per kw. Other automotive industry people have stated in the recent past that achieving that battery price level will make EVs price competitive with ICE vehicles. Since the R2 will reach market in theory in early 2026, the timing will be good for it to be competitive with vehicles such as the Honda CRV, Toyota RAV4, etc. Maybe not the lowest priced trim levels but the more popular higher trim levels.

Also, by that point, the EV charging situation will be much improved, not only from gaining access to the Tesla network but the huge surge in construction of charging station with Inflation Reduction Act spending.

Thus, I think Rivian will be very well position to sell a much larger volume of R2 vehicles than R1, assuming they are a compelling product, which I think they will be. The company has already demonstrated it's ability to come out with a good design, and RJ Scaringe seems very excited about what they have coming.

All this could lead to the Rivian stock price really taking off in 2026 or 2027, which will be good because it will allow the company to continue growing.

It’s the R2 line that will make or break Rivian. It has to be really compelling at a great price point as well. The reason Rivian is having as good of a time right now is because theres not much competition. But, you bet there will be by 2026-2027 when Rivian is really ramping up the R2. Every single brand will have at least one or two competing vehicles in the R2 price level by that time.

EDV is such a small market in comparison to passenger vehicles, and Rivian isn't the only player even now.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I don't disagree with any of this, but it's also pretty obvious ...

Rivian was eating the cost of the increased battery prices during the pandemic. They're not going to decrease MSRP because of decreasing battery prices, because this is part of how they will increase their margins and make up for their initial losses.

R1 was never designed for the mass market - this is their flagship, high-end product. R2 IS intended to reach a broader market, but I would not classify it as being a low-end ICE competitor either. There's plenty of room in the market for a better $40K or even $50k vehicle, and Rivian can be profitable even just sticking to the R1 series.

The R2 is not *required* to reach profitability, but certainly having a more reasonably priced EV will allow Rivian to reach a much wider audience and if they can sell the R2 for more than they make it, should allow for much more growth.

The reason the stock will take off is because of the electric van, however. Now that they are free from Amazon exclusivity, the EDV half (yes half) of their business is unlocked and now they can utilize that production capacity they set aside for vans increase their sales by a huge amount. The EDV half of their production capacity is already profitable, and selling more than 10k a year that Amazon wanted will be a huge win in 2024.

Yup. Van. Fleet. And leasing ushering in more customers who have been on the fence.

 

[HighVoltOverland]

I call your Foxconn and raise you (lower you?) Lordstown.

I call your Lordstown and lower you(rolling down the hill) Nikola

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