My unsolicited five step plan for saving Rivian

[COdogman]

Ok, I’ve got it: PPV Musk/ RJ cage fight. That should raise at least $500.

Sponsored

 

[docwhiz]

Usually they are filling there current positions in a new location. Not a new job classification, which may require a different skill set, and a different pay scale, in a new location.

Usually it's a promotion.

 

[jjswan33]

+1 for adapting the R1 drivetrain and suspension to the EDV/ECV. #vanlife isn’t my thing, but it sure is for a bunch of people. I recall several posters on this forum eager to see a custom Rivian camper van build. It won’t be a high volume product. But it will draw a lot of attention in a niche market with some tolerance for a premium price tag.

yeah and a bare 4x4 sprinter goes for like $100k if you can find one. The demand is definitely there.

 

[foxerson]

yeah and a bare 4x4 sprinter goes for like $100k if you can find one. The demand is definitely there.

Wow, really, $100k?!

Make a 4x4 Rivian van for Alex Honnold to go with his R1T then sit back and watch the pre-orders roll in.

 

[Nikhiluor]

If they have a decent stock of inventory, send them to high traffic service centers to use as loaners rather than writing blank checks to Enterprise rentals. That should save a some pennies.

I feel service center are draining lot of $ for Rivian just because they are just so inefficient and don’t have right tools to schedule services. They need to achieve same day service SLA quick enough to avoid paying for rental; it just doesn’t make sense to me at all. I am very sure they are bleeding good amount of money to rental. And in parallel make Quality dept accountable to ensure there quality improves significantly as they ship car out from factory…

 

[emoore]

I agree with "Mall edition."

Coil suspension, no air compressor, remove the wood, third row, single motor option, 300 miles of range for below $70k.

The issue I see might be what Elon called out a long time ago. Trying to do everything at once. They are trying to copy every offering that Tesla has, which isn't a bad idea, but I assume it's hard to fund RAN, ADAS, R2 facilities, R1 facilities, software, R & D, service centers, spaces, etc.

It's a lot.

I'd personally kill the RAN expansion for now, stop with Driver+, implement AA and car play and cut software development down a bit.

I believe Rivian will be ok once interest rates drop, tech companies stop laying off their employees, and the economy improves.

I do think getting rid of another $10k of MSRP would really help, though I would not force pre order holders to buy. They could just cancel, leave unhappy, and never consider the brand again.

Here's my optimistic view for Rivian:

• They will get both production and prices down further, but still offer great products this year.
• Interest rates will come down in Q3/Q4 and companies will start hiring again.
• R2 is going to be a big hit, generate lots of positive headlines and mostly importantly, reservations.
• More people will become aware of and interested in Rivian, which will result in some additional R1 sales.
• Rivian will use this to get $3 - $4 billion in additional funding.
• In 2025, economy is much healthier, losses have been reduced, costs are getting under control.

This is pretty much the path I see for Rivian. If R2 does not generate reservations or buzz, I'm not quite sure they make it.

Scary thing is the economy is doing pretty well despite some that are dying for a recession. So I think interest rates are the big thing right now. If those go down then more people will buy expensive cars.

 

[Stretch2727]

Well, burning $1.5+B in cash a quarter won't work. I've worked with many distressed businesses, including high-growth startups, that begin to run into cash crunches - sometimes they miss estimates of demand at a price point, sometimes it's a lack of attention to detail on the cost side, other times it's trying to invest in anything, everything, all at once (self-driving, subscription services, suspension turning, adding configs, new facilities/factories, staff that aren't really needed for 12-24 months, securing best marginal price on parts which often means larger order volumes and higher working inventory levels). You name it, I've seen it. The one that just about every company struggles with is forecasting working capital needs. If Rivian is sitting on excess finished goods inventory, as they are, that inventory has carrying costs and tends to depreciate the longer it sits on lots. Meanwhile, that's cash that is not available to support other business needs. Some of this is expected, they can/should build up ~15-30 days of inventory as shipping via rail takes time and they want some cushion to keep generating revenue while the factories are down for retooling/refitting. But here we are, and the picture isn't the worst, but it's difficult to support as a prospective vehicle buyer and investor.

Feel free to pick it apart, I don't work at Rivian nor do I know anyone who does. It's just a layman's plan from the outside, but one that will probably work.

1. Cut deeper/faster: 10%? Should start at 20-25% and monitor daily. 10% is a "we're not serious". Most companies will start at 15% and then add another 10-15% in six months. Every day these decisions is delayed is cash you can never get back. And every dollar saved increases probability of success, even if it takes a little longer to get there.
2. Innovate around the current offering: I'll give them credit here, dual-motor coming out last Fall was a great start as are the new Standard and Standard+ packs ...BUT.... the vehicles are effectively identical outside of motors and batteries. Sure, this worked for Tesla but it won't work for everyone coming after, that was a poor assumption. See what's coming to market in the R1 price band and you'll find different interior materials, things like HUD, different trim options, etc. My low-cost hack? Come out with a true "mall crawler+" edition that has five seats (third row extra $5K), 20" all seasons, steel wheels and maybe a tough-wearing fabric interior a la Polestar. Drop the gimmicky camp speaker and maybe even remove the air compressor. I'd also offer new paint flat paint colors, no metallics, to make it clearer to passers-by that this is the mall-crawler edition. Starting at $59,900, available today.
3. Build the R2 in tents in Normal in 2025: A la Tesla at Fremont, do NOT spend the capex now on the R2 facility. Basically slow roll the new factory and in the interim launch a R2 pilot production line in a sprung structure in spring 2025. Is that a rush job? Yes. May have to re-use the R1 front motor as the R2 rear motor in a single-motor config, go with a coil suspension and keep the Rivian looks. it's the Bronco Sport of the Rivian lineup. Re-using as many R1 parts as they can will hurt margins BUT it will accelerate time to launch - which is critical. Maybe the first vehicles are $60K models only with all the goodies and they build the cheaper configs once the second (real) plant is running. Putting a sprung structure in Normal, and re-using R1 parts, will make it easier for suppliers and much easier for Rivian's (now smaller) operations and logistics team to manage inflow/outlfow and quality at the single location. BTW, there is another hack here, and I shudder to mention it, but they can buy Ultium sleds from GM as are Honda/Acura and slap an R2 body on time simplifying the engineering dramatically.
4. Immediate salary/bonus freeze - probably through the R2 production launch, it's sink or swim. Everyone remaining gets additional option grants setting up a true win-win.
5. On the engineering side, find 2-4 things that Rivian can be exceptional at which will cause customers to pay attention. At 50-60k annual units Rivian is moving as many R1's as Tesla sells S/X - that's a monumental achievement, but it's insufficient for survival. They won't beat Tesla at FSD or GM's Supercruise (not yet, anyway) so for now Driver+ remains as adaptive cruise control. Full stop. I'd also take a hard look at the Apple Carplay contract and API's, this alone can get Rivian a demand bump in 2024. So Rivian is the outdoorsy company, check. Take a swat team of engineers, 4-6, and optimize the heck out of dual-motor offroad capabilities. Virtual lockers, crawl control, you name it. Make it as good or better than what anyone else has on the market. And then market the heck out of it. Rebelle Rally was a start, but most people have never heard of it. How about beating "Trail Rated" Jeeps on their own trails? And do it with solar and external battery packs - completely green.

That's it. Most organizations, no matter the size, have a hard time pulling on more than 3-5 strings if they have to go "all in". Sure, have departmental goals, etc. And delayer - no more than five layers from RJ to someone on the line or a service tech. Is this hard? Oh yeah, but less management helps the rest happen faster. Pick apart my plan or methods, I'd love to see Rivian succeed. But as a first-time CEO RJ may be an incredible engineer but is struggling with running a business. Claire is helpful, but he needs more. Not sure the recent hires have enough turnaround experience, and make no mistake this is a turnaround - now or by year-end. Best to take the bitter pill now, swallow hard, and dig in.

Good Post.

Seriously looking at investing in RIVN came here to learn more. My biggest concern is the GA facility. I just don't see how RJ can justify a new plant with only 57K vehicles being built in Normal. Not only do you have the capital cost but the operational costs of splitting the operations between 2 plants. There are so many things (engineering, skilled trades, etc) that can be shared in Normal that will greatly lower costs with higher volume. This plant made over 200K cars at its peak. If you need to, move some of the non-core operations (motors, battery assembly) out of Normal to leased space locally to make room for the R2. It also looks like there is room to expand.

I still may invest but I just think RJ needs to become realistic to the situation.

There is just no way they can afford the Georgia plant at this point and it is going to be difficult to raise sufficient capital for it with their market cap now at ~$10B,

 

[rmalzo]

Well, burning $1.5+B in cash a quarter won't work. I've worked with many distressed businesses, including high-growth startups, that begin to run into cash crunches - sometimes they miss estimates of demand at a price point, sometimes it's a lack of attention to detail on the cost side, other times it's trying to invest in anything, everything, all at once (self-driving, subscription services, suspension turning, adding configs, new facilities/factories, staff that aren't really needed for 12-24 months, securing best marginal price on parts which often means larger order volumes and higher working inventory levels). You name it, I've seen it. The one that just about every company struggles with is forecasting working capital needs. If Rivian is sitting on excess finished goods inventory, as they are, that inventory has carrying costs and tends to depreciate the longer it sits on lots. Meanwhile, that's cash that is not available to support other business needs. Some of this is expected, they can/should build up ~15-30 days of inventory as shipping via rail takes time and they want some cushion to keep generating revenue while the factories are down for retooling/refitting. But here we are, and the picture isn't the worst, but it's difficult to support as a prospective vehicle buyer and investor.

Feel free to pick it apart, I don't work at Rivian nor do I know anyone who does. It's just a layman's plan from the outside, but one that will probably work.

1. Cut deeper/faster: 10%? Should start at 20-25% and monitor daily. 10% is a "we're not serious". Most companies will start at 15% and then add another 10-15% in six months. Every day these decisions is delayed is cash you can never get back. And every dollar saved increases probability of success, even if it takes a little longer to get there.
2. Innovate around the current offering: I'll give them credit here, dual-motor coming out last Fall was a great start as are the new Standard and Standard+ packs ...BUT.... the vehicles are effectively identical outside of motors and batteries. Sure, this worked for Tesla but it won't work for everyone coming after, that was a poor assumption. See what's coming to market in the R1 price band and you'll find different interior materials, things like HUD, different trim options, etc. My low-cost hack? Come out with a true "mall crawler+" edition that has five seats (third row extra $5K), 20" all seasons, steel wheels and maybe a tough-wearing fabric interior a la Polestar. Drop the gimmicky camp speaker and maybe even remove the air compressor. I'd also offer new paint flat paint colors, no metallics, to make it clearer to passers-by that this is the mall-crawler edition. Starting at $59,900, available today.
3. Build the R2 in tents in Normal in 2025: A la Tesla at Fremont, do NOT spend the capex now on the R2 facility. Basically slow roll the new factory and in the interim launch a R2 pilot production line in a sprung structure in spring 2025. Is that a rush job? Yes. May have to re-use the R1 front motor as the R2 rear motor in a single-motor config, go with a coil suspension and keep the Rivian looks. it's the Bronco Sport of the Rivian lineup. Re-using as many R1 parts as they can will hurt margins BUT it will accelerate time to launch - which is critical. Maybe the first vehicles are $60K models only with all the goodies and they build the cheaper configs once the second (real) plant is running. Putting a sprung structure in Normal, and re-using R1 parts, will make it easier for suppliers and much easier for Rivian's (now smaller) operations and logistics team to manage inflow/outlfow and quality at the single location. BTW, there is another hack here, and I shudder to mention it, but they can buy Ultium sleds from GM as are Honda/Acura and slap an R2 body on time simplifying the engineering dramatically.
4. Immediate salary/bonus freeze - probably through the R2 production launch, it's sink or swim. Everyone remaining gets additional option grants setting up a true win-win.
5. On the engineering side, find 2-4 things that Rivian can be exceptional at which will cause customers to pay attention. At 50-60k annual units Rivian is moving as many R1's as Tesla sells S/X - that's a monumental achievement, but it's insufficient for survival. They won't beat Tesla at FSD or GM's Supercruise (not yet, anyway) so for now Driver+ remains as adaptive cruise control. Full stop. I'd also take a hard look at the Apple Carplay contract and API's, this alone can get Rivian a demand bump in 2024. So Rivian is the outdoorsy company, check. Take a swat team of engineers, 4-6, and optimize the heck out of dual-motor offroad capabilities. Virtual lockers, crawl control, you name it. Make it as good or better than what anyone else has on the market. And then market the heck out of it. Rebelle Rally was a start, but most people have never heard of it. How about beating "Trail Rated" Jeeps on their own trails? And do it with solar and external battery packs - completely green.

That's it. Most organizations, no matter the size, have a hard time pulling on more than 3-5 strings if they have to go "all in". Sure, have departmental goals, etc. And delayer - no more than five layers from RJ to someone on the line or a service tech. Is this hard? Oh yeah, but less management helps the rest happen faster. Pick apart my plan or methods, I'd love to see Rivian succeed. But as a first-time CEO RJ may be an incredible engineer but is struggling with running a business. Claire is helpful, but he needs more. Not sure the recent hires have enough turnaround experience, and make no mistake this is a turnaround - now or by year-end. Best to take the bitter pill now, swallow hard, and dig in.

Amen, I think this guy is on It and and someone at Rivian should read this. They are in trouble no doubt about it. If they don’t respond fast there will be no R2. Right now the best thing would be an acquisition , maybe by Amazon, they have gobs of cash

 

[docwhiz]

Amen, I think this guy is on It and and someone at Rivian should read this. They are in trouble no doubt about it. If they don’t respond fast there will be no R2. Right now the best thing would be an acquisition , maybe by Amazon, they have gobs of cash

Having more cash won't fix the problem.
They need to spend less cogs and sell more

 

[rmalzo]

Having more cash won't fix the problem.
They need to spend less cogs and sell more

I respectfully disagree. Even a major cut in spending will not generate the BILLIIONS they need to survive. Cost cutting yes but not enough to save the company. It’s too late for that

 

[gingerjet]

Should have stayed unsolicited. Building cars in tents was a disaster for Tesla and its customers. The build quality was hideous and required most customers to bring back their cars to service centers there were ill equipped to handle it.

 

[archer423]

Well, burning $1.5+B in cash a quarter won't work. I've worked with many distressed businesses, including high-growth startups, that begin to run into cash crunches - sometimes they miss estimates of demand at a price point, sometimes it's a lack of attention to detail on the cost side, other times it's trying to invest in anything, everything, all at once (self-driving, subscription services, suspension turning, adding configs, new facilities/factories, staff that aren't really needed for 12-24 months, securing best marginal price on parts which often means larger order volumes and higher working inventory levels). You name it, I've seen it. The one that just about every company struggles with is forecasting working capital needs. If Rivian is sitting on excess finished goods inventory, as they are, that inventory has carrying costs and tends to depreciate the longer it sits on lots. Meanwhile, that's cash that is not available to support other business needs. Some of this is expected, they can/should build up ~15-30 days of inventory as shipping via rail takes time and they want some cushion to keep generating revenue while the factories are down for retooling/refitting. But here we are, and the picture isn't the worst, but it's difficult to support as a prospective vehicle buyer and investor.

Feel free to pick it apart, I don't work at Rivian nor do I know anyone who does. It's just a layman's plan from the outside, but one that will probably work.

1. Cut deeper/faster: 10%? Should start at 20-25% and monitor daily. 10% is a "we're not serious". Most companies will start at 15% and then add another 10-15% in six months. Every day these decisions is delayed is cash you can never get back. And every dollar saved increases probability of success, even if it takes a little longer to get there.
2. Innovate around the current offering: I'll give them credit here, dual-motor coming out last Fall was a great start as are the new Standard and Standard+ packs ...BUT.... the vehicles are effectively identical outside of motors and batteries. Sure, this worked for Tesla but it won't work for everyone coming after, that was a poor assumption. See what's coming to market in the R1 price band and you'll find different interior materials, things like HUD, different trim options, etc. My low-cost hack? Come out with a true "mall crawler+" edition that has five seats (third row extra $5K), 20" all seasons, steel wheels and maybe a tough-wearing fabric interior a la Polestar. Drop the gimmicky camp speaker and maybe even remove the air compressor. I'd also offer new paint flat paint colors, no metallics, to make it clearer to passers-by that this is the mall-crawler edition. Starting at $59,900, available today.
3. Build the R2 in tents in Normal in 2025: A la Tesla at Fremont, do NOT spend the capex now on the R2 facility. Basically slow roll the new factory and in the interim launch a R2 pilot production line in a sprung structure in spring 2025. Is that a rush job? Yes. May have to re-use the R1 front motor as the R2 rear motor in a single-motor config, go with a coil suspension and keep the Rivian looks. it's the Bronco Sport of the Rivian lineup. Re-using as many R1 parts as they can will hurt margins BUT it will accelerate time to launch - which is critical. Maybe the first vehicles are $60K models only with all the goodies and they build the cheaper configs once the second (real) plant is running. Putting a sprung structure in Normal, and re-using R1 parts, will make it easier for suppliers and much easier for Rivian's (now smaller) operations and logistics team to manage inflow/outlfow and quality at the single location. BTW, there is another hack here, and I shudder to mention it, but they can buy Ultium sleds from GM as are Honda/Acura and slap an R2 body on time simplifying the engineering dramatically.
4. Immediate salary/bonus freeze - probably through the R2 production launch, it's sink or swim. Everyone remaining gets additional option grants setting up a true win-win.
5. On the engineering side, find 2-4 things that Rivian can be exceptional at which will cause customers to pay attention. At 50-60k annual units Rivian is moving as many R1's as Tesla sells S/X - that's a monumental achievement, but it's insufficient for survival. They won't beat Tesla at FSD or GM's Supercruise (not yet, anyway) so for now Driver+ remains as adaptive cruise control. Full stop. I'd also take a hard look at the Apple Carplay contract and API's, this alone can get Rivian a demand bump in 2024. So Rivian is the outdoorsy company, check. Take a swat team of engineers, 4-6, and optimize the heck out of dual-motor offroad capabilities. Virtual lockers, crawl control, you name it. Make it as good or better than what anyone else has on the market. And then market the heck out of it. Rebelle Rally was a start, but most people have never heard of it. How about beating "Trail Rated" Jeeps on their own trails? And do it with solar and external battery packs - completely green.

That's it. Most organizations, no matter the size, have a hard time pulling on more than 3-5 strings if they have to go "all in". Sure, have departmental goals, etc. And delayer - no more than five layers from RJ to someone on the line or a service tech. Is this hard? Oh yeah, but less management helps the rest happen faster. Pick apart my plan or methods, I'd love to see Rivian succeed. But as a first-time CEO RJ may be an incredible engineer but is struggling with running a business. Claire is helpful, but he needs more. Not sure the recent hires have enough turnaround experience, and make no mistake this is a turnaround - now or by year-end. Best to take the bitter pill now, swallow hard, and dig in.

Useful ideas to be sure.

However I think unless the economy finds a new gear in 2024 and they can drastically cut costs without impacting product quality, materials, fit/finish Rivian will need to borrow more money before 2024 is out. I think should consider selling 40-50% of the company to Subaru. They both have the outdoor vibe, protect nature, etc ethos and Subaru is still quirky and unique of a brand vs Ford.

Also in such a deal Subaru gets instant access to a premium brand and EV tech they desperately need. Rivian gets a much bigger dealer network to reduce the cost of delivery. Rivian would still be its own brand but would leverage Subaru's dealer network for delivery and service. With the R2S and I assume R2T coming it would give Subaru a better up-sell to the Outback. VW is another option as they dont have anything in the overlanding/4x4 space. I believe VW is trying to resurrect the Scout as an EV brand but quite frankly buying Rivian fully gets them there without the 3-4 year product development roadmap.

Who is waiting 3-4 years to get a Scout SUV or pickup.

All that said I am not sure if the Ford investment would allow this kind of a sale. But if Ford takes over Rivian its DOA for the brand and product quality.

 

[TollKeeper]

I think should consider selling 40-50% of the company to Subaru.

I am very positive I dont want Toyota involved with anything Rivian does...

VW is another option

And this is FAR worse than Toyota. I would take GM over both of these options.

 

[archer423]

Toyota doesn't own Subaru? They have a car share partnership on a few models.

GM kills everything it touches and won't risk making the Silverado EV or Hummer EV programs more flops. BTW - I would take Toyota, VW or Subaru over GM every day on 14x on Sunday.

Rivian has a cash, quality control problem (look at Consumer Reports - bottom 5) and a reach problem (too few server centers). Subaru does not.

Both Subaru and Rivian are in the top 10 in brand strength. Combine Subaru's quality focus & cash with Rivian's design and you could have a stronger company. At least in theory.

There is only some much oxygen in the car market for EV start ups. Rivian is either going to need a 3B cash infusion or a buyout in 2024 to keep going. If the lease program make sales blow up we would need to revisit this but right now they need pile of cash and a bigger service network.

Massively cutting costs was a 2023 To do and they didn't. Now they need to cut costs under duress with rates likely high until after the election. So its going to be tough.

They make amazing vehicles and I believe they will survive but without help and relying on firing people and cost cutting its going to be a nail bitter. They need help.

 

[carsly]

Should it be Toyota? Probably, given their renewed focus on overlanding with the Land Cruiser (gasser) and GX550 (also gasser).

...but a savior would likely come from China - maybe BYD? That's how they gain entry to the US market given the unfavorable political climate they otherwise encounter - save a US company and US jobs with a commitment to build more vehicles in the US. Add on some sizable donations to the PAC's of senior leaders in Congress from both parties and it's a done deal.

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