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How low can RIVN stock go?

pricedm

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I predict/ guess if Q2 or Q3 earnings call shows promise of 60k annual production, stock could recover towards $20. If not, $7 - 10 range.

The other variable is conversion rate of deposits to actual sales. Again, lots of headwinds. I was surprised as a "last day to sign binding sales agreement and get $7,500 tax credit" reservation holder, on 3/14 I got invite to configure. At this point I'm waiting for dual-motor option (my bias is towards range) and wishful thinking the dual lead-acid 12v batteries will be revamped to a lithium 12v battery.

Reservations in the 120k range isn't a lot, and considering the macro economy, tough times ahead for us $RIVN shareholders. Reminder: $TSLA did next-to-nothing from IPO to 2019. Likely same for $RIVN
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Shzeph

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Personally, and based on my expert background of having looked at the Stocks app AND being a commenter on the internet, I believe that RIVN will fall to -$200, at which point RJ and Tony will personally come to each stockholder's home and pay them to buy more stocks
 

Trandall

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Well it's already much lower than I thought it could go but I still can't imagine a scenario where it would go to zero. The product is to good for someone not to buy the rights. They would then probably dilute the hell out of it until it's just another turd rolling down the road, promote the hell out of it as if it was the same vehicle from launch, and sell it for profitably for $100K. That would be a sad day.
A problem Rivian is running into now is that typical consumers conflate cheap stock price for the vehicles themselves as being less valuable where in reality the opposite is true. RIVN is way down because they sold the R1's way to cheap they should be worth more than a model X easily.
 

Dark-Fx

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I'm definitely not a stock expert but I did purchase the stock at the IPO price when they offered it to me. It's been pretty eye opening to watch this crash as it has.
I'm fine losing money on the IPO stock because it was set up so they would be able to bridge until the R2 line would be in production. They didn't anticipate the bureaucratic nightmare of their site selection and that's delayed that date, so they need to do the green bonds. (And really I ended up getting that money back and more because they are still honoring the original pricing instead of what they should have increased everything to)

Now is always the best time to secure funding you know you are going to need in the future. Had Rivian IPOed at half the valuation they did, they would really be struggling right now with the way the economy is headed.
 

Jac

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In my view the locked in pre-March 1 pricing is a less of a factor than the cost of operating the factory in Normal at a fraction of its real capacity and saddling service centers with so many initial quality related service tickets that service center appointments are being scheduled months in the future. I am a fan but these realities can’t be ignored.
 

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Rivian_Hugh_III

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I expect a Rivian extravaganza in the next 6 months where they reveal the dualies, some surprise upgrades, and some add-ons for style/function. They’ll invite the media to preview and drive the new motor config and move heaven and earth to drive some positive press. They may also raise the price of the 4 wheel configuration and find a way to lower the price of the base model (front wheel drive enduro?). At some point they’ll also presumably announce a four wheel enduro although I don’t expect that until mid-2024. We should get a few more colors this year too. All that plus a speed up at Normal would bump the stock to the 20’s, everything else being equal.
 

bbenoit726

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How low, can you go Porkchop?
This is literally what I hear in my head any time someone says "how low can you go" or references limbo.
 

mabowden

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zipzag

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The medium term stock price depends on production volume. The longer term price depends on the R2.

IMO new features and configs for the R1 don't mean much as long as Rivian is supply constrained.

A worsening economy will hurt Rivian SP more than most companies. But a recession may not matter as they likely have the cash to get to a better economy.

I'm not sure why they are not building the new factory regardless of the state incentive problem.
 

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MXA121

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Market cap lower than Lucid is not justifiable! That doesn’t mean it won’t go further down. Needs some positive news and market cooperation to see any bounce from here.
Exactly! HOW is lucid worth more than Rivian? Their press is nothing to write home about.
 

Step Brady

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It's about as low as it can go; the valuation is based on precisely the cash they have on hand, that is it, as they burn through it each quarter, not making a profit or getting more investors (which would still lower the stock) it's probably going down.
They're doing everything they, not using Bosch Motors, cutting out the Meridian Audio System almost two months ago, shipping by rail, no service loaners (Uber vouchers), laying off the top executives, plus interest rates will probably rise tomorrow, or buyers without decent credit scores will be ruled out to buy a $90K truck.
They will not make up a loss of over $20K per truck over the next couple of years, though, and if they do, not so sure too many people will want the "cost saver" models. They screwed up their initial asking price (by 20%), which may take down the company. You will not make it up on volume with two to three years of capacity manufacturing at the old price and the bad Amazon agreement.
Sound engineers and poor business operations.
 
 




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