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Guide Contacts & Counting by Thanksgiving?? Can they do it??

St Bernard

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1) You’re wrong on the law. A material update on production status could very well impact their IPO. The chance is high enough - all logical counterarguments you can think of aside - that they won’t want to risk it. Nobody wants to be the guy that green lights an announcement that tanks an 80b IPO.

2) I have not defended Rivian’s abysmal comms strategy at all. This is just the only time they have a valid reason to say nothing.

3) They could and should have planned for this. They could and should have made one final update before filing the S-1. But they didn’t and now we are stuck. I’d be willing to ditch them over this if there were anything else out there that met my criteria. Sadly, there isn’t.

But do we really need an announcement to know what’s going on? No. Every day makes it clearer that they aren’t ready for external customer sales. So sit back and wait until they are, and if you need a new car in the next 6 months, go buy one now.
What kind of material update? They already announced that deliveries have started ( this is accurate but not very honest). They can certainly tell 2018 reservation holders when their cars are coming within a 7 month window. If they cannot guarantee 2018 holders that they will receive their cars by(as I previously stated) May 2022 then they have much bigger problems.
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doozenberg

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What kind of material update? They already announced that deliveries have started ( this is accurate but not very honest). They can certainly tell 2018 reservation holders when their cars are coming within a 7 month window. If they cannot guarantee 2018 holders that they will receive their cars by(as I previously stated) May 2022 then they have much bigger problems.

Agreed. The silence is telling.

OP asked:
Guide Contacts & Counting by Thanksgiving?? Can they do it??

Short answer: No.

Hedge answer: It'll be a mass email the day before Thanksgiving saying your guides are ready to go blah blah without any personalized follow up.

Move along folks, rollercoaster drop up ahead.
 

Diddy123

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Legit question - why does anyone care about getting a Guide when they are of no use currently?
Because it's an indicator of whether or not the company is on track, or another delay is imminent (official or unofficial).

There's 30+ guides sitting around twiddling their thumbs right now. If they can't even meet the deadline of reaching out by Thanksgiving, then it's just one more clear indication that all is not as we were told to expect.

It's not about what the guide will do for us individually. It's about whether or not Rivian will finally start meeting their self-prescribed deadlines, and provide some small level of confidence in them ramping up production in the relatively near future.
 

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eggpaul

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I talked with CS two days ago and they said they’re still on track to call everyone by Thanksgiving. We shall see…
Did they actually say "call" or "contact". A call to each LE holder would almost be impossible without scheduling it first, not even talking about how 30 guides would call a few thousand people. It's most likely "contact", which means a mass email at this point.
 
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jjswan33

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Legit question - why does anyone care about getting a Guide when they are of no use currently?
While true. I care because it would be a sign of progress, even if it ends up being meaningless progress.

That said even better sign of progress would be availability of test drives in more regions.
 

svet-am

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Part of my opinion on this is driven by my having an R1S reservation, but they said that all LE holders (including R1S) would be contacted by Thanksgiving. I'm only interested in them contacting me as a heuristic of how on-track the R1S actually is.
 

bowhunter

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Because it's an indicator of whether or not the company is on track, or another delay is imminent (official or unofficial).

There's 30+ guides sitting around twiddling their thumbs right now. If they can't even meet the deadline of reaching out by Thanksgiving, then it's just one more clear indication that all is not as we were told to expect.

It's not about what the guide will do for us individually. It's about whether or not Rivian will finally start meeting their self-prescribed deadlines, and provide some small level of confidence in them ramping up production in the relatively near future.
I don't think there is any question at this point that there is a delay as multiple customers who had been given an October delivery estimate did not receive vehicles. We just don't have visibility of the volume of the delay and what (if any) downstream impact there is. I certainly hope Rivian meaningfully resets expectations with those individuals. There really wasn't value in telling them that their October timeframe was still accurate up to the last minute when they knew they didn't have their vehicles ready.
 

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eggpaul

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What kind of material update? They already announced that deliveries have started ( this is accurate but not very honest). They can certainly tell 2018 reservation holders when their cars are coming within a 7 month window. If they cannot guarantee 2018 holders that they will receive their cars by(as I previously stated) May 2022 then they have much bigger problems.
Maybe they expect every preorder holder
I don't think there is any question at this point that there is a delay as multiple customers who had been given an October delivery estimate did not receive vehicles. We just don't have visibility of the volume of the delay and what (if any) downstream impact there is. I certainly hope Rivian meaningfully resets expectations with those individuals. There really wasn't value in telling them that their October timeframe was still accurate up to the last minute when they knew they didn't have their vehicles ready.
Yes, either the guides have no idea what is happening or they are being told to stick to the script (which is something out of a circus).
 

Dbeglor

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Because it's an indicator of whether or not the company is on track, or another delay is imminent (official or unofficial).

There's 30+ guides sitting around twiddling their thumbs right now. If they can't even meet the deadline of reaching out by Thanksgiving, then it's just one more clear indication that all is not as we were told to expect.

It's not about what the guide will do for us individually. It's about whether or not Rivian will finally start meeting their self-prescribed deadlines, and provide some small level of confidence in them ramping up production in the relatively near future.
You're making an assumption that it's an indicator. As shown by the entire history of vehicle production, a Guide isn't necessary to deliver vehicles. A delay in the Guide program rollout doesn't necessarily mean a delay in deliveries. It might, but it might not.

If I'm an exec at Rivian, I cancelled the whole Guide program months ago because this forum does their job for them...I just created millions in value by striking that expense from the budget for the IPO.

Plus, why do you need to speculate in November whether they will meet a target timeline 6 months from now? It does make for great entertainment, but it's nothing to get worked up about.
 

RivianXpress

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Maybe there are much fewer LE pre-orders than presumed here?
 

Diddy123

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You're making an assumption that it's an indicator. As shown by the entire history of vehicle production, a Guide isn't necessary to deliver vehicles. A delay in the Guide program rollout doesn't necessarily mean a delay in deliveries. It might, but it might not.
It's an indicator to me. That's a fact, not an assumption. If they don't hit this deadline it INDICATES to ME that there's something truly amiss at Rivian. It indicates to ME, that I should increase my level of concern about LE delivery dates.

Plus, why do you need to speculate in November whether they will meet a target timeline 6 months from now? It does make for great entertainment, but it's nothing to get worked up about.
I'm not worked up. You asked a question, and I provided a response. And even if I was "worked up", I don't particularly care whether you approve of my emotional state. I'll speculate, where and if I choose to do so, because at somepoint I actually do need to have a mode of transportation in my garage. Knowing/speculating if the Rivian is an option will help guide my decision making process.
 

DaveA

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Legit question - why does anyone care about getting a Guide when they are of no use currently?
My guides name is Rivian Forum.
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