Guide Contacts & Counting by Thanksgiving?? Can they do it??

Lil'O Annie

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Today is 10/6/21:
Since I have way too much time on my hands, and I'm going out of my mind waiting, 🤪 I got to wondering how many Launch Edition pre-orders would need to be contacted per day to accomplish Guide Contacts of LEs by Thanksgiving. 🤔

Using a Poll I conducted in this group back on Sept. 19th with 219 responses, of those, there are around 105 LE pre-orders (both R1T & R1S) from this group. That's around 48% LEs. If there are around 48K pre-orders, that would mean about 23K of those are LEs. As of today, there are 31 business days until Thanksgiving. Rivian has said they will contact all the LEs by Thanksgiving, so that means they will need to contact 743 people per day to do that. How many Guides are there??

OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE!! There are a few early contacts, but not sure how many of those to remove from this estimate.

10/6/2021

The numbers today, which will change each day of course:
48% of 48,000=23,040 LE Pre-orders
23,040/31= 743 contacts/day

Can/will they do it??
I thought they would jump in and get on this right away starting Oct., but I haven't heard of anyone getting contacted recently as yet. I've not been contacted yet (12/4/2018, R1T, LE/LG/FE)

This is all getting pretty old!! I know!! BORING!!
😴
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DaveA

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Today is 10/6/21:
Since I have way too much time on my hands, and I'm going out of my mind waiting, 🤪 I got to wondering how many Launch Edition pre-orders would need to be contacted per day to accomplish Guide Contacts of LEs by Thanksgiving. 🤔

Using a Poll I conducted in this group back on Sept. 19th with 219 responses, of those, there are around 105 LE pre-orders (both R1T & R1S) from this group. That's around 48% LEs. If there are around 48K pre-orders, that would mean about 23K of those are LEs. As of today, there are 31 business days until Thanksgiving. Rivian has said they will contact all the LEs by Thanksgiving, so that means they will need to contact 743 people per day to do that. How many Guides are there??

OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE!! There are a few early contacts, but not sure how many of those to remove from this estimate.

10/6/2021

The numbers today, which will change each day of course:
48% of 48,000=23,040 LE Pre-orders
23,040/31= 743 contacts/day

Can/will they do it??
I thought they would jump in and get on this right away starting Oct., but I haven't heard of anyone getting contacted recently as yet. I've not been contacted yet (12/4/2018, R1T, LE/LG/FE)

This is all getting pretty old!! I know!! BORING!!
😴
Are they just naming all the 2022s Launch Edition? I highly doubt this and suspect there are really only, maybe, and no greater than 5k LEs of each. And the radio silence of anyone getting contacted has me thinking it may be even less.
 

jjswan33

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Today is 10/6/21:
Since I have way too much time on my hands, and I'm going out of my mind waiting, 🤪 I got to wondering how many Launch Edition pre-orders would need to be contacted per day to accomplish Guide Contacts of LEs by Thanksgiving. 🤔

Using a Poll I conducted in this group back on Sept. 19th with 219 responses, of those, there are around 105 LE pre-orders (both R1T & R1S) from this group. That's around 48% LEs. If there are around 48K pre-orders, that would mean about 23K of those are LEs. As of today, there are 31 business days until Thanksgiving. Rivian has said they will contact all the LEs by Thanksgiving, so that means they will need to contact 743 people per day to do that. How many Guides are there??

OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE!! There are a few early contacts, but not sure how many of those to remove from this estimate.

10/6/2021

The numbers today, which will change each day of course:
48% of 48,000=23,040 LE Pre-orders
23,040/31= 743 contacts/day

Can/will they do it??
I thought they would jump in and get on this right away starting Oct., but I haven't heard of anyone getting contacted recently as yet. I've not been contacted yet (12/4/2018, R1T, LE/LG/FE)

This is all getting pretty old!! I know!! BORING!!
😴
I had made an estimate of 20k LE orders a few weeks ago and got admonished that I could even speculate the number was that high. I am sure contact for some will just mean an email saying we expect to deliver your R1 by March, April... or whatever

The pure volume of Guides they would need to contact 743 people a day with a personal message seems unrealistic when you figure how many customers will a typical guide be able to support. Including contacting new customers, answer previous contact questions and helping with orders/deliveries. If a given guide was dealing with 1000 customers awaiting order at once it would be tough for them to offer good service.
 

SANZC02

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Today is 10/6/21:
Since I have way too much time on my hands, and I'm going out of my mind waiting, 🤪 I got to wondering how many Launch Edition pre-orders would need to be contacted per day to accomplish Guide Contacts of LEs by Thanksgiving. 🤔

Using a Poll I conducted in this group back on Sept. 19th with 219 responses, of those, there are around 105 LE pre-orders (both R1T & R1S) from this group. That's around 48% LEs. If there are around 48K pre-orders, that would mean about 23K of those are LEs. As of today, there are 31 business days until Thanksgiving. Rivian has said they will contact all the LEs by Thanksgiving, so that means they will need to contact 743 people per day to do that. How many Guides are there??

OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE!! There are a few early contacts, but not sure how many of those to remove from this estimate.

10/6/2021

The numbers today, which will change each day of course:
48% of 48,000=23,040 LE Pre-orders
23,040/31= 743 contacts/day

Can/will they do it??
I thought they would jump in and get on this right away starting Oct., but I haven't heard of anyone getting contacted recently as yet. I've not been contacted yet (12/4/2018, R1T, LE/LG/FE)

This is all getting pretty old!! I know!! BORING!!
😴
I think the poll on this site is way off because most of the people on these forums are very engaged in the process. I'd be surprised if the LEs are more than 10K and really expect them to be closer to 5K. If you look historically at most Launch Editions for vehicles the number is usually very small.
 

EVTrucking

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I understand the IPO quiet period silencing Rivian but I don’t understand the total silence from the buying public.

When does the quiet period end?
 

stynes

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I'm a 12/3/2018 pre order date with a LE R1S. No contact yet. I've been wondering the same. How will they manage to contact everyone in a reasonable time. I'm order like 29xx if I recall. But with no guide introduction yet, it makes me wonder if I'm even going to get something this calendar year.
 

LoneStar

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Folks, its going to be some kind of 'bot' email that assigned a Guide's name to your (pending) order. It will be lots of happy-talk and give a commitment about hearing from your Guide real s00000n.
 

SlaterGS

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I'm with many of the others.
It is doubtful that they have much more than 10k total LE slots between the two vehicles.
And they have hit zero of their previous commitments on timing so I am going with a very confident no, they will not do it.
Not angry, there is just nothing at this point that would indicate they can based on their track record and lack of communication.
 

SANZC02

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I'm a 12/3/2018 pre order date with a LE R1S. No contact yet. I've been wondering the same. How will they manage to contact everyone in a reasonable time. I'm order like 29xx if I recall. But with no guide introduction yet, it makes me wonder if I'm even going to get something this calendar year.
Hard to say how many pre-orders there are but if you assume 5K, if they start next week they have 45 days before Thanksgiving.

If they have 25 guides that is around 5 contacts a day per guide, if it is 10K that would be 10 contacts a day.

The problem is we are all speculating, no idea how many LEs are really reserved or how many guides they plan on having.

I would love to have the LE R1S this year but keeps me more relaxed thinking next June.....
 

fromSf

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I seriously doubt LE orders are greater than 5K. My guess is its somewhere between 2000-5000 not more than 5000. Feel even 5000 is very high number to carry the LE badge.

I would love to have my LE R1S in December but my guess is sometime in Feb/Mar.
 

timf

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I'm most alarmed that there haven't been ANY new reports of guide contacts since at least August. The guides are obviously still around to help those who have already been contacted, but I can't imagine that keeps them very busy if they aren't adding new contacts to the mix. I'd like to know what they do with all their time. Maybe it looks like the service center employees who sit around playing with their cell phones.
 

Temerarius

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I think the poll on this site is way off because most of the people on these forums are very engaged in the process. I'd be surprised if the LEs are more than 10K and really expect them to be closer to 5K. If you look historically at most Launch Editions for vehicles the number is usually very small.
Agreed.

Most "First Edition" launches tend to be 500-3,500 units (1,500 seems to be the norm).

No idea how that plays out with a Rivian R1T, but, I would be utterly shocked if they did more than 5k as LE's.
 

paariv

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Agree with the others that:
1) You're way overestimating the number of LEs based on that poll. Rivian wanted a small number so they can meet an "all LEs delivered" deadline pretty quickly after they start. That's why LE orders shut down abruptly a few days in.

2) Guide contacts will be defined as the initial email saying "Hi, I'm your guide and we hope to get you a R1 by March." Those can be sent in bulk via automated process the day before Thanksgiving and the deadline will be "met." Can't read anything into staffing, but the pause itself is worrisome as it signals they're not really ready to deliver en masse.

I think they are waiting to start guide outreach and actual non-employee customer deliveries until after they've fixed the tonneau and other issues we've heard about. Not sure when that'll be.
 
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