Do We Think The Lottery is Over?

[mic-chris]

Now that we have our estimated timelines (subject to change obviously) do we think the lottery is over? We know Rivian threw random late reservations in to help calculate the conversion rate. Do we think they will continue to do so or now that they have the data they want they will moreso follow the timelines they posted to everyone's accounts?

I guess time will tell, but who doesn't love some good speculation. I would be curious to know if anything who had anything later than "4-8 weeks" was surprised by an invite to order.

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[Mos Eisley]

Now that we have our estimated timelines (subject to change obviously) do we think the lottery is over? We know Rivian threw random late reservations in to help calculate the conversion rate. Do we think they will continue to do so or now that they have the data they want they will moreso follow the timelines they posted to everyone's accounts?

I guess time will tell, but who doesn't love some good speculation. I would be curious to know if anything who had anything later than "4-8 weeks" was surprised by an invite to order.

Dunno- but we do know that VIN assignment has slowed, for whatever reason.

 

[Platinumstorm]

Two people with June 26 reservation posted they got bumped to priority putting in their lease info.

I did a demo drive trying to get adjusted but nothing changed.

Rivian lease generates them 2 profit sources. My truck that has broken down twice in June last month, and I've had to ban myself from driving anywhere fun in it, won't.

 

[mic-chris]

Dunno- but we do know that VIN assignment has slowed, for whatever reason.

I know this scares me, but better to happen now and work out whatever is going on. Many rumors on batteries etc. out there who knows what is true. Surprisingly Rivian is able to keep tight lipped whereas if this was a legacy OEM we would know what is going on. Too many leaks lol.

Two people with June 26 reservation posted they got bumped to priority putting in their lease info.

I did a demo drive trying to get adjusted but nothing changed.

Rivian lease generates them 2 profit sources. My truck that has broken down twice in June last month, and I've had to ban myself from driving anywhere fun in it, won't.

Sigh, the lease factor stings for me. I always LEASED cars, but purchased my last 2 outright ever since COVID. Got screwed with the car market and told myself it wouldn't happen again. I have been curious if folks tried to "fake" a lease lol. Not that I would but there has to be someone out there who tried haha.

 

[Josh X]

Two people with June 26 reservation posted they got bumped to priority putting in their lease info.

I did a demo drive trying to get adjusted but nothing changed.

Rivian lease generates them 2 profit sources. My truck that has broken down twice in June last month, and I've had to ban myself from driving anywhere fun in it, won't.

I had a June 8th 2026 reservation and my order changed from November-December to 1-2 weeks at midnight last night.

 

[mic-chris]

I had a June 8th 2026 reservation and my order changed from November-December to 1-2 weeks at midnight last night.

Oh wow great data point. Are you the one that was mentioned that put lease data in? Or this just randomly updated.

 

[Josh X]

Oh wow great data point. Are you the one that was mentioned that put lease data in? Or this just randomly updated.

Yes that was me. I put the lease data in AFTER I got my November - December estimate. The amount of excitement I got at 12:30am last night seeing this kept me up til 2am lmao.

I do want white interior though so I won’t order day 1. Hoping white interior opens up first week of August.

 

[racekarl]

I did nothing in my Rivian account, though I did do a demo drive last weekend and my timing has changed from 4-8 weeks to 2-4 weeks.

 

[mic-chris]

I did nothing in my Rivian account, though I did do a demo drive last weekend and my timing has changed from 4-8 weeks to 2-4 weeks.

Sounds like natural progression which is good news given many VINs have been assigned with little movement. Best of luck hope your number gets called soon!

 

[hsctiger]

You all got me excited so I looked. 3/13/26 reservation and got bumped up 30 days from Oct/Nov to Sept/Oct.

I didn't realize you could "favorite" a build so I did that. Launch green with black interior and a bunch of accessories. Maybe that helped? Accessories like wall chargers and cross bars are quite profitable I'm sure.

I also suspect that some people have decided not to order while others confirmed they're waiting for their "perfect" vehicle whether that be a different color, interior, LiDAR, etc. which has moved some of us up.

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