Current daily production rate

[Guy]

Various statements from Rivian and industry analysts.

40K in the first full year

150k annual capacity goal in Illinois

Tesla produced ~35k model S in their 3rd year of production. I believe that due to tech advances, industry maturation, and JR being a better, calmer, smarter, and more methodical automotive engineer than Musk, Rivian will do in the first full year what took Tesla 3 years to achieve.

40k is maybe overly ambitious for next year. I still think 15k or so which then allow the ramp up to 65k run rate by the end of 2024. When we all get our emails next week it will be interesting to see if all 71k pre orders are planned to be filled by the end of 2023. The extra capacity for Normal should then be up and running to allow in 2024 around 110-120k R1’s to be built.

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[Zoidz]

They’ve stated on multiple occasions that they’ll be running the line (or already are) 2 shifts per day, 6 days per week. So I think the math should be based on 16 hours per day, 96 hours per week, and ~4800 hours per year, starting relatively soon.

My guess is actually based on a similar working schedule. Having experience in plant floor startups, I'm estimating that during the first year, they will average net 50 assembly line operational hours a week out of 2 shifts, and 51 operational weeks, allowing for a 1 week shutdown. During the first part of the year, operational hours will be lower, starting as low as 15% - 25%, ramping towards the end of the year, hopefully running at 85% - 90%, based on their target of 40k the first year.

 

[Zoidz]

Old 2nd hand information that does not reflect current reality.

Why does it not reflect current reality? You have information that Rivian is now not targeting 40K the first year or eventually 150k annual production?

RJ said this in November 2021:
"We believe that we will be able to increase the annual production capacity of the Normal Factory up to 200,000 vehicles by 2023 as we introduce additional R1 platform variants and expand the facility"

You don't increase to 200,000 vehicles by 2023 by producing 15k vehicles in 2022 as you suggest.

 

[EVTrucking]

Why does it not reflect current reality? You have information that Rivian is now not targeting 40K the first year or eventually 150k annual production?

RJ said this in November 2021:
"We believe that we will be able to increase the annual production capacity of the Normal Factory up to 200,000 vehicles by 2023 as we introduce additional R1 platform variants and expand the facility"

You don't increase to 200,000 vehicles by 2023 by producing 15k vehicles in 2022 as you suggest.

Goals and estimated capabilities made for the purpose of promoting Rivian to share holders based on optimistic ideal conditions. Does not reflect current reality(parts supply, labor shortage, production issues, management and many more).

Missing those goals will not break Rivian as long as progress is demonstrated.


Publicly shared goals are open ended and change as reality changes.

 

[Ladiver]

RJ said this in November 2021:
"We believe that we will be able to increase the annual production capacity of the Normal Factory up to 200,000 vehicles by 2023 as we introduce additional R1 platform variants and expand the facility"

Perfect opportunity for loophole and technicality! Christmas 2023, you will see the new R1B (electric bike) or R1C (child’s electric vehicle).

 

[Taycanfrank]

I think the 15k for 2022 is more reasonable.

There simply will be delays due to the insane logistics of the world today. All it takes is one shipment of parts to show up with a quality issue to massively set back production.

 

[mkg3]

I find how most of you are so pessimistic about the production numbers for 2022, simply fascinating.

The attached is the survey many of you on this forum took about the LE delivery windows.

ou quickly see that it is statistically significant with 874 samples. It also shows that the most of LE trucks are delivered by August, and that SUV starts to pick up around May. There is no indication of any LE in 2023. The survey simply states later than July (R1T) or September (R1S) without any year being indicated. That said, combined laters are only 8.8%.

Out of 55100 preorder as of end of October, and if you believe LE is the largest percentage of then preorders, it is quite reasonable to assume they will hit the target for 2022, The survey is a pretty good cross section of the entire backlog base, I believe.

When AP/EP dates come out next week, it will add more to the result and we'll see how it all fares out.

 

[Taycanfrank]

@mkg3 The delivery windows are estimates that were sent out en masse. It's not "your car will absolutely be here in this window". Rivian has already had massive delays and until they start actually hitting deadlines there is no real reason to believe any delivery estimates.

Supply chain issues are only going to get worse in the near future as well, which certainly won't do them any favors.

 

[crashmtb]

Goals and estimated capabilities made for the purpose of promoting Rivian to share holders based on optimistic ideal conditions. Does not reflect current reality(parts supply, labor shortage, production issues, management and many more).

Missing those goals will not break Rivian as long as progress is demonstrated.


Publicly shared goals are open ended and change as reality changes.

You are arguing about manufacturing with the wrong person ????

 

[mkg3]

@mkg3 The delivery windows are estimates that were sent out en masse. It's not "your car will absolutely be here in this window". Rivian has already had massive delays and until they start actually hitting deadlines there is no real reason to believe any delivery estimates.

Supply chain issues are only going to get worse in the near future as well, which certainly won't do them any favors.

Clearly we ALL know that the email is an estimate, It can be earlier or later than the window.

Having said that if you have completely ignored their position and believe you know more than the manufacture, fine. That's a great insight and knowledge you seem to possess.

At the end of the day, either you believe what Rivian is telling the public or not. Given the general attitude towards the whole subject, it is not surprising that you do not put any credibility to the Rivian windows.

As for the supply chain, I think you're listening and being influenced too much by the media and what you read and hear. It is actually improving and, while there may be a disruptions here and there, it is not significant enough to be material. It is improving, not because photo opps and taking credit for what the industries are already doing by the WH, but because new capabilities are coming on line to produce more of everything.

RJ mentioned on the earnings call that even if 99.5% of the supplies are on time, if that 0.5% is not, it can create a bottleneck and impact the production. This is very true but the situation is improving and alternative solutions are also available.

 

[BradSomrak]

Out of 55100 preorder as of end of October, and if you believe LE is the largest percentage of then preorders, it is quite reasonable to assume they will hit the target for 2022

I don’t believe LE is the largest percentage of the preorders. Quite to the contrary, I believe LE is a small(er) percentage of the preorders. For starters, you know the LE was sold out long before Rivian disclosed it’s 48k order backlog. Long before. That backlog is now over 71k. Assuming 25k LE vehicles - and I believe that is a high estimate - Rivian could have close to 50k non LE vehicles pending.

If its production schedule is to clear 25k LE vehicles over the next 10 months - again, probably a high LE estimate - it then needs to double that production from September ‘22 to June ‘23 to fill its remaining 50k orders by mid-2023. That feels like the best case scenario, IMO.

Admittedly, I do not know the exact number of LEs that have been placed. I do not believe anyone else does, either. The 2023 “ramp up” schedule looks much better if Rivian is going to deliver 40k LE’s by Sept ‘22. If they are only delivering 20k LE’s by next Sept……the non LE people are going to be waiting into ‘23.

As you said, we will know more next week.

 

[SeaGeo]

This post is basically just a reflection of whether people think Rivian is getting better with estimating deliveries and for the most part is entirely uninformed speculation. You have folks like @mkg3 who are taking Rivian at their word for delivery windows and what Rivian has told investors. And then other people who think that Rivian is being overly optimistic by about two- to three-hundred percent. If you're in the latter camp, I'd be curious if you're also shorting Rivian over the next year (that not accusational, I just don't know why you wouldn't be if that's your opinion).

The good thing is we now have quarterly official updates from Rivian. Q4 will likely have very few deliveries based on the delivery windows they've communicated thus far, and people will panic. Again. Even if it's roughly consistent with what Rivian was expecting. Q1 2022 should be the real make or break quarter for them. Successfully hitting their goals for the next two quarters doesn't necessarily have anything to do with their current or recent production. Hopefully Rivian is pulling in as many supplies as the possibly can right now, even while they're being constrained by *something* to protect future uncertainties. When they issued the LE windows, there were more unknowns than their are now, so hopefully we gain some more insight into production estimates over the next week-or-so that account for what they've learned over the last month. If there's one thing that's become obvious, it's that the JIT aspect of lean doesn't work worth a shit with the current supply chain.

The big question mark, obviously, is what Omicron and other variants do to things. Maybe it blows through the world quite quickly, or maybe we're all F'd and need to stock up on toilet paper.

 

[EVTrucking]

This post is basically just a reflection of whether people think Rivian is getting better with estimating deliveries and for the most part is entirely uninformed speculation. You have folks like @mkg3 who are taking Rivian at their word for delivery windows and what Rivian has told investors. And then other people who think that Rivian is being overly optimistic by about two- to three-hundred percent. If you're in the latter camp, I'd be curious if you're also shorting Rivian over the next year (that not accusational, I just don't know why you wouldn't be if that's your opinion).

The good thing is we now have quarterly official updates from Rivian. Q4 will likely have very few deliveries based on the delivery windows they've communicated thus far, and people will panic. Again. Even if it's roughly consistent with what Rivian was expecting. Q1 2022 should be the real make or break quarter for them. Successfully hitting their goals for the next two quarters doesn't necessarily have anything to do with their current or recent production. Hopefully Rivian is pulling in as many supplies as the possibly can right now, even while they're being constrained by *something* to protect future uncertainties. When they issued the LE windows, there were more unknowns than their are now, so hopefully we gain some more insight into production estimates over the next week-or-so that account for what they've learned over the last month. If there's one thing that's become obvious, it's that the JIT aspect of lean doesn't work worth a shit with the current supply chain.

The big question mark, obviously, is what Omicron and other variants do to things. Maybe it blows through the world quite quickly, or maybe we're all F'd and need to stock up on toilet paper.

I agree that JIT’s inherent weakness has been exposed and will hopefully be modified.

 

[EVTrucking]

You are arguing about manufacturing with the wrong person ????

I realize that. I was hoping to help you understand how highly technical complex manufacturing works.

 

[SeaGeo]

I don’t believe LE is the largest percentage of the preorders. Quite to the contrary, I believe LE is a small(er) percentage of the preorders. For starters, you know the LE was sold out long before Rivian disclosed it’s 48k order backlog. Long before. That backlog is now over 71k. Assuming 25k LE vehicles - and I believe that is a high estimate - Rivian could have close to 50k non LE vehicles pending.

If its production schedule is to clear 25k LE vehicles over the next 10 months - again, probably a high LE estimate - it then needs to double that production from September ‘22 to June ‘23 to fill its remaining 50k orders by mid-2023. That feels like the best case scenario, IMO.

Admittedly, I do not know the exact number of LEs that have been placed. I do not believe anyone else does, either. The 2023 “ramp up” schedule looks much better if Rivian is going to deliver 40k LE’s by Sept ‘22. If they are only delivering 20k LE’s by next Sept……the non LE people are going to be waiting into ‘23.

As you said, we will know more next week.

I think we can say with some degree of confidence that at the absolute low end there's 5k. That's not based on anything more than guy. My best estimate at the moment trying to unskew some unscientific skews is in the 15k range for launch editions. 25k is, as you noted, probably pretty close to to a theoretical max, and doesn't make a lot of sense given their delivery timelines.

Things that we know from Rivian:
-they think they can delivery nearly all launch editions by July. Those in the last delivery window are generally in hard to reach locations for them.
- They're planning to deliver Adventure trims in the spring to early summer.
-They don't plan on hitting their annualized 65k max production before end of 2023. But they were (at one point) planning on delivering about 45k trucks by end of 2022.

So let's assume they ramp up LE deliveries slowly through January and Feb as they're suggesting. They then deliver the vast majority of the roughly.... 10k remaining LE by end of July. What're they doing the rest of the year? And how many adventure trims are they manufacturing from March through July? Hopefully we get an idea of that next week.

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