Any predictions for earnings call on 5/11/22?

lambo

Well-Known Member
First Name
M
Joined
May 30, 2021
Threads
8
Messages
51
Reaction score
59
Location
Silicon Valley
First Name
M
Vehicles
Audi A4 Allroad
Occupation
Software Engineer
Here's a quick analysis of weekly deliveries from the "add yours" delivery thread.

While the self reported numbers may not be representative, the ramp in reported deliveries in March looked good, fell off during April and once again appears to be picking up.

Hopefully Rivian's end of quarter push portends good things for them and for us.

1652278249420.png

 

NY_Rob

Well-Known Member
First Name
Rob
Joined
Feb 9, 2022
Threads
4
Messages
247
Reaction score
354
Location
long island
First Name
Rob
Vehicles
2021 Model 3 LR AWD, 2017 BMW i3 REX
Occupation
IT
I said that tongue-in-cheek, but Barrons’s analysis says the same thing 🙄:

Options markets show that investors should expect significant volatility after earnings. Rivian stock is expected to move roughly 20%, up or down, following the report. Shares dropped about 8% and 10% after the company’s past two quarterly reports
On the upside... 20% movement on a $20 stock is only $4 :(
 

Guy

Well-Known Member
First Name
Guy
Joined
Nov 6, 2021
Threads
2
Messages
465
Reaction score
501
Location
Philadelphia suburbs
First Name
Guy
Vehicles
Mazda 6, Toyota Sienna
Occupation
Scientist
Rivian averaged over 380 trucks per week for the last three weeks of March (taken from the last quarterly call on the 10th through to end of March). If anywhere near that rate is maintained then 1500 a month is feasible and I would expect close to 2000 made this quarter so far and 4000 when we end the quarter. If they just maintain that rate then that gives 14500 for the year. Therefore supply permitting 15k should be beaten and I would expect strong hints on that in the August call.
 

kurtlikevonnegut

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 1, 2021
Threads
9
Messages
849
Reaction score
2,380
Location
Charleston, SC
Vehicles
Mazda CX 5, Jeep Cherokee (XJ)
I think we will get more news about the Amazon Vans than we have gotten in any previous updates. The most recent pictures of the area have shown a lot of vans in the lot and I think this is something that can help bolster the stock in stormy waters
 

Scoiatael

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2021
Threads
12
Messages
509
Reaction score
894
Location
Southern CA
Vehicles
Tesla Model Y
Here's a quick analysis of weekly deliveries from the "add yours" delivery thread.

While the self reported numbers may not be representative, the ramp in reported deliveries in March looked good, fell off during April and once again appears to be picking up.

Hopefully Rivian's end of quarter push portends good things for them and for us.

1652278249420.png
Yeah, Rivian has to be really behind at this point based on this, even if it's a small subset of deliveries. We saw the huge uptick in guides and deliveries at the end of the quarter. In order to make 15k r1 vehicles, they needed to exceed the March push in April and May.
 

kurtlikevonnegut

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 1, 2021
Threads
9
Messages
849
Reaction score
2,380
Location
Charleston, SC
Vehicles
Mazda CX 5, Jeep Cherokee (XJ)
Yeah, Rivian has to be really behind at this point based on this, even if it's a small subset of deliveries. We saw the huge uptick in guides and deliveries at the end of the quarter. In order to make 15k r1 vehicles, they needed to exceed the March push in April and May.
I'd be hesitent to draw too many conclusions from this, considering we have seen that these forums are heavily over represented with LE buyers. LE buyers would represent the vast majority of March deliveries but anecdotally we are seeing a lot more non-LE buyers get vehicles in the last few weeks.
 

lostpacket

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 4, 2021
Threads
24
Messages
522
Reaction score
1,518
Location
Vermont
Vehicles
Crosstrek
Occupation
Software Engineer
I have near prescient predictions that I will edit this post with after the earnings call
 

junkanoo

Well-Known Member
First Name
Richard
Joined
Mar 11, 2022
Threads
5
Messages
119
Reaction score
169
Location
Connecticut
First Name
Richard
Vehicles
Acura RDX, Suburu Outback
Occupation
Supply Chain Planning
They will lead with a warning to the participants that the discussion of financial results may include forward-looking statements and the estimates of results based on the forward-looking statements may substantially differ from the actual results…😀

Not bold enough? Sorry, I’ve listened to thousands of these things…

So my other bold prediction: the call will be boring, bland and mostly free of juicy details on when the undelivered will get their trucks…
This. RJ and Claire will once again tag team the analysts, putting the sleeper hold on them just like last quarter by the perfect combo of (1) not being forthcoming along with (2) zero charisma. But, given the market's current mood, I'm not sure what they could say that would move the needle much.
 

SeaGeo

Well-Known Member
First Name
Brice
Joined
Jan 12, 2021
Threads
41
Messages
3,898
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Seattle
First Name
Brice
Vehicles
Xc60 T8
Occupation
Engineer
Yeah, Rivian has to be really behind at this point based on this, even if it's a small subset of deliveries. We saw the huge uptick in guides and deliveries at the end of the quarter. In order to make 15k r1 vehicles, they needed to exceed the March push in April and May.
I just don't think people are reporting. I know I haven't. And observational we have had a massive uptake in both guide contacts and deliveries over the last two weeks.
 

DJG

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2022
Threads
2
Messages
101
Reaction score
134
Location
TX
Vehicles
Various
I just don't think people are reporting. I know I haven't. And observational we have had a massive uptake in both guide contacts and deliveries over the last two weeks.
Agree, after the initial excitement the desire to go and upload your info will decline linearly and the % of deliveries that do will as well, so it's bad data in terms of trying to track total production. Not to mention that that graph is charting deliveries, and we know that the rush at the end of March was unloading built up production going back to January that was waiting on software.
 
Last edited:

Guy

Well-Known Member
First Name
Guy
Joined
Nov 6, 2021
Threads
2
Messages
465
Reaction score
501
Location
Philadelphia suburbs
First Name
Guy
Vehicles
Mazda 6, Toyota Sienna
Occupation
Scientist
They said at the last call that Q2 and Q3 would be the big EDV quarters so I do expect them to report EDV numbers and R1 numbers. I don’t think, unfortunately, that they will separate out T and S (yet). They need to do 2000 plus on EDV this quarter to have any hope of 10k for the year.
 

DJG

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2022
Threads
2
Messages
101
Reaction score
134
Location
TX
Vehicles
Various
They said at the last call that Q2 and Q3 would be the big EDV quarters so I do expect them to report EDV numbers and R1 numbers. I don’t think, unfortunately, that they will separate out T and S (yet). They need to do 2000 plus on EDV this quarter to have any hope of 10k for the year.
I'm not sure there is any real reason to separate out the T and S for the audience of that call, which is financial and they have the same sale price/revenue. That, and it can only be used against them. Earnings calls are about the art of saying the absolute bare minimum required by law/regulation and skirting everything else.
 

Geocvl

Member
First Name
Chris
Joined
Mar 25, 2022
Threads
0
Messages
8
Reaction score
15
Location
Oakville ON, Canada
First Name
Chris
Vehicles
Golf R, Mini Cooper S
Occupation
Engineer
I predict that due to chip shortage the first batch of R1S will have manual window levers, no power steering and the only usable key will be the carabiner.
I was thinking they would start delivering a two row R1S that seats 8, lots of open air. Best way to get delivery numbers up with the current chip and battery shortage. Power and range may vary.

1652288545398.png
 

Guy

Well-Known Member
First Name
Guy
Joined
Nov 6, 2021
Threads
2
Messages
465
Reaction score
501
Location
Philadelphia suburbs
First Name
Guy
Vehicles
Mazda 6, Toyota Sienna
Occupation
Scientist
I'm not sure there is any real reason to separate out the T and S for the audience of that call, which is financial and they have the same sale price/revenue. That, and it can only be used against them. Earnings calls are about the art of saying the absolute bare minimum required by law/regulation and skirting everything else.
That is fair, the analysts don’t care. Being selfish I would like to know but it will become clear as the R1S owners on here start to get their vehicles.
 

lostpacket

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 4, 2021
Threads
24
Messages
522
Reaction score
1,518
Location
Vermont
Vehicles
Crosstrek
Occupation
Software Engineer
Here are my predictions:

  • Roughly 5,000 vehicles produced to date (not clear the split of R1 vs. EDV)
  • 10,000 new preorders since the updated pricing
  • Cash burn was approximately $1B in the quarter. They now have about $17B cash on hand
  • 2/3 of 25000 production will be r1 vehicles and 1/3 will be EDV
  • Over 90K R1 preorders.
  • As of May 9, 2022, produced 5k vehicles.
  • Since pricing update in March, received over 10K preorders
  • Cash at $17B as of March 31.
  • Net cash used in operating activities in Q1 2022 was $1.034B
  • Reaffirm 25K vehicles production in 2022
  • If supply chain constraints were resolved, estimate that they can produce 2x cars for the remainder of year. [my thoughts: so 40-50K for 2022 if no supply chain restrictions?]
  • Planning on launching R2 line in 2025, without additional cash raise needed
  • Looking forward to introducing new LFP battery to be used in dual motor version of R1 and EDV with single motor
  • In-house developed motor is called “Enduro”
 

 
Top